How’s the Kentucky Derby shaping up?

According to our experts, it looks like a pretty serious battle up front leading to horses coming from off the pace to wear the roses.

Our six-pack of analysts – narrowly – sees it as Journalism edging Sovereignty. On a 5-2-1 (win-place-show) scale, our handicappers gave 16 points to Journalism and 14 to Sovereignty.

Two horses got 5 points each. Those two, Sandman and Baeza, each got one ‘capper picking them to win and received no other support to finish in the money. Burnham Square was next, receiving three votes to finish third.

Even with the scratch of presumed pace factor Rodriguez, there are several early types in the field. From the inside, last year’s two-year-old champ, Citizen Bull; Neoequos, winless beyond six furlongs; Virginia Derby winner American Promise; and even UAE Derby winner all figure to show speed.

Farther out, East Avenue, who donned blinkers last out and retains them today, and longshot Owen Almighty also are likely to be involved early.

That could mean one of two things. Either #8 Journalism – and Japan-based Luxor Café, just to his inside – might slot in a perfect trip, sliding over to the inside behind the speedy sorts, saving ground early and pouncing late.

Or the pace really heats up – the opening half-mile has been under 46 seconds in four of the last eight years – which could bring the deeper closers into play.

Faced with a modest pace in the Florida Derby, Sovereignty ran on but couldn’t get to winner Tappan Street, who’s not here. He owns a win over the strip, though, and would benefit if the pace wears out all within hailing distance of it.

Then there’s Sandman, the deepest of deep closers. He got a suicidal speed duel in front of him in the Arkansas Derby and ran past ‘em all to win going away. A repeat is by no means out of the question – if he can avoid traffic trouble in a 19-horse field.

And then there’s the real wild card of Baeza. He drew in after the scratch of Rodriguez and will have to navigate from the farthest outside post. He’s very lightly raced – just four starts and only one, a good second to Journalism, against winners – but has tons of talent. He would probably like to find the trip that Journalism is likely to get. Instead, he’ll try to find his way to save some ground while probably a few lengths off the early action.

One question for him: in his three dirt tries to date, he’s seen a total of 14 rivals, four fewer than he’ll see in this contest. How will he handle the Derby and all that goes with it?

The picks:

OUR HANDICAPPERS ARE:

• Nick Hahn, author of the eponymous Nick’s Picks for Colonial Downs.
• Eric Rubin, host of Better Betting podcast
• Gary Quill, co-host of Better Betting and former The Racing Biz Maryland handicapper
• Derby Bill Watson, legendary former Colonial Downs on-air analylyst
• Joseph Aiello handicaps Saratoga for The Racing Biz.
• Ted Black is the Charles Town correspondent for The Racing Biz.
• Mackenzie Pfeiffer is an on-air analyst for the Maryland Jockey Club