A thrilling ride up the rail by Ken McPeek’s Mystik Dan set up an exciting Kentucky Derby finish last year. This year, a promising group of 20 enter with the chance to put their names into the history books.

How will this Derby develop? In each of the last eight years, the opening half-mile has been swift, under 47 seconds. In four of those years, it was sub-46. This year could be more of the same, with a number of runners who seem likely to be engaged from the jump, including some longshots.

The top three morning line choices in this field, on the other hand, all prefer to finish from off the pace. If the pace is as contested as seems possible, that could be good news for the chalk.

Of the seven runners breaking inside morning line favorite Journalism (3-1), five of them ran their most recent prep on or near the lead, with Brad Cox’s longshot Final Gambit and Japanese hopeful Luxor Café the exceptions. The others’ only wins have come when on or near the lead at every call.

The four inside speed horses that have raced in the United States all have TimeformUS early pace ratings of 113 to 118. Add in East Avenue (123) and Owen Almighty (121), along potentially with UAE Derby winner Admire Daytona, and you have the makings of a quick early pace.

What’s more there are two typically aggressive Bob Baffert runners in Citizen Bull (20-1, 113 early pace rating) from post one and Rodriguez (12-1, 113) from the four hole. Citizen Bull disappointed last out in the Santa Anita Derby, but his prior wins, including in last fall’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, saw him set the pace throughout. Rodriguez, outquicked early in two California races by other Baffert trainees, controlled things up top in the Wood Memorial and has only won on the lead.

Saffie Joseph’s longshot runner Neoequos (30-1, 118) may have some distance concerns after struggling to stretch out to two turns this prep season, but he has plenty of lick, too. He’s never won past six furlongs. Does jockey Flavien Prat send and try to steal it? Or try to reserve his mount off the lead to conserve energy?

Perhaps the toughest-to-gauge runner in this grouping is D. Wayne Lukas’ American Promise (30-1, 115), who has been largely unspectacular in seven of his race-leading nine career starts. In his two victories, however, this colt by Justify was aggressive from the jump, most recently breaking the track record in the Virginia Derby at Colonial Downs. It seems likely that “The Coach” instructs jockey Nik Juarez to take aim at the Baffert duo, as he did in Virginia when pressing another Baffert runner, 4-5 favorite Getaway Car, into submission.

The others who figure to factor into the pace would be the #12 East Avenue (20-1, 123) from the Brendan Walsh barn and #20 Owen Almighty (30-1, 121). They faced each other last out in the nine-furlong Blue Grass, with East Avenue leading while pressed by Owen Almighty through fast early fractions. Owen Almighty made a bid nearing the quarter-pole, but East Avenue shrugged it off before getting pipped late himself by Burnham Square.

LISTEN TO THE LATEST OFF TO THE RACES RADIO!

While it may not be in his best interest to challenge the Baffert duo early, East Avenue is one that has lost interest when he hasn’t been involved from the break, likely forcing the hand of Manny Franco in this spot even if sitting off the lead would help him at this distance. Blinkers, added for the Blue Grass, seemed to help but also point to a horse who’ll be engaged from the jump.

All of that could allow Journalism to work out a good trip in mid-flight, possibly sliding over from the eight-hole to save ground as his inside rivals gun for early supremacy. Luxor Cafe, Render Judgment (30-1) and Grande (20-1) also may be in the second grouping. Coal Battle (30-1), Chunk of Gold (30-1), and Burnham Square (12-1) should round out the mid-pack with Coal Battle showing a bit of trip versatility in his career thus far.

Journalism’s tactical versatility gives him a leg up on the deeper-closing Sovereignty (5-1) and Sandman (6-1), who came from the clouds to win the Arkansas Derby. Both have left themselves plenty of ground to cover in the stretch, though, and in a 20-horse field, a lot must go right to come from that far out of it. Sandman may be further back than Sovereignty at the start.

On the other hand, we do have recent examples of all of that going right, including in Rich Strike’s stunning win in 2022.

Others in the final flight will likely be the pair of Asmussen trainees, Tiztastic (20-1) and the maiden Publisher (30-1), as well as longshot runners Flying Mohawk (30-1) and Final Gambit (30-1). The latter pair ran two-one, respectively, in the Jeff Ruby Steaks on the synthetic at Turfway Park. Final Gambit, who won going away, was 12^th early that day, while Flying Mohawk was 11^th.

With half a dozen or more horses expected to be part of the early action, another contested pace is expected, headlined by Citizen Bull, Admire Daytona, and East Avenue who have all flashed the most speed in their careers. While Rodriguez and Owen Almighty have shown a similar early turn of foot, their prep wins came against lesser fields than this where they had control of the race all the way around. 

If the first half mile to three-quarters is as crowded as it appears, a winner from this group would be difficult, setting up the race for a mid-pack finisher. For a deeper closer such as Sandman to win, the pace may need to mirror that of two and three years ago, which saw opening half miles in 45.73 seconds and 45.36, with three-quarters in 1:10 and change both years. 

At this moment, Journalism has been the most impressive of the bunch and could have his ideal set up if he gets a clean trip. The only knock would be the increase in field size having never run against a group of more than 10, and his three stakes wins have all come against five-horse fields.

Positionally, Luxor Cafe and Grande may be ones to watch here at a price as they should be in positions to get first run as the pacesetters tire. Burnham Square may also offer good value from mid-pack, and he took advantage of an honest pace set by East Avenue last time in his bounce back win in the Blue Grass. Sovereignty is the last top choice who has shown the upside to be a contender here from off the pace, but he will have to overcome a wide post as he is breaking from post eighteen. 

The most likely winner will come from the above group: a horse running in mid-flight, poised to pounce but saving energy while the speed horses battle it out.

A bevy of runners took major steps forward in their most recent prep from a speed figure perspective, with American Promise entering as the biggest wild card of the bunch. Any replication of his Virginia Derby will lead to a top four finish, but the break and early company are paramount here.

Expect one deep closer to end up in the top five finishers, with Sovereignty, Sandman, Chunk of Gold, and one of the Asmussen trainees as the strongest late finishers to potentially hit the board.