Two trainers and two jockeys have won at least two more races than their odds would have predicted at Charles Town races thus far in 2024. On the jockey side, Victor Rodriguez (6 wins, 2.58 more than expected) and Abnel Bocachica (8 wins, 2.46 above expectations) are at the head of the class, while trainers Donald Barber (4 wins, 2.84 above expectations) and Stacey Viands (4, 2.52) are leading in that category.

The Racing Biz analyzed the performance of each rider and trainer versus the takeout-adjusted odds on their runners. Each jockey’s and trainer’s wins were compared to their expected wins. We include only jockeys that have made at least five starts at Charles Town this year and trainers that have made at least three.

Rodriguez has won with six of 38 starters at the track to date, while Bocachica, the son of longtime local stalwart Arnaldo Bocachica, is 8-for-54. Had their horses run to their odds, however, Rodriguez would have just 3.42 wins, and Bocachica would have 5.54.

The remainder of the top five in wins above expectations are Carlos Lopez (9 wins, 1.51 above expectations), Fredy Peltroche (8, 0.96), and Javier Rivera (3, 0.75).

Thus far, 24 jockeys have made at least nine starts at the meet. Nine of those have won more races than their odds would have predicted, while for 15, the reverse is true.

Carlos Lopez, who has won with nine of 40 starters (22.5%), leads all riders in terms of percentage of purse money earned. He has pulled down 19.1% of available purse money. He is followed in that category by Arnaldo Bocachica (17.6%), Marshall Mendez (16.8%), Denis Araujo (16.4%), and Larry Reynolds (16.2%).

A pair of trainers with smaller stables have gotten off to the fastest starts, as Barber (4-for-10) and Viands (4-for-12) lead in wins above expectations. They’re followed by Jeff Runco (8 wins, 1.95 above expectations), Joan Reynolds (2, 1.21), and Anthony Lucas (2, 0.84).

In all, 43 trainers have had at least five starters at Charles Town thus far, and 19 of them have won more their odds would have predicted.

Barber, with a 40% strike rate, has secured 32.9% of available purses, by far the most of any local trainer. He’s followed by Runco (22.5%), Wade Sanderson (21.6%), Viands (20.5%), and Agosto Miguel Ramos (20.2%).

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