Laurel Park picks and ponderings December 30, 2021

by John Piassek | Dec 30, 2021 | Breaking, Handicapping

Horses round the turn at Laurel Park. Photo: Allison Janezic.

In which we pick the races from Laurel Park each day…

Post time: 12:25 p.m.

Carryovers: Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 — $0 Super High 5 — $0 Late Pick 5 — $0

ANALYSIS

RACE 1: MAIDEN CLAIMING $10,000, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 MILE

4-5-8-12
Another day with lots of big fields. #4 Icy Harbor (9/2) made her first start at this level last out, and hung around on the pace and secured third. Lots of room for improvement. #5 Diadora (10/1) was well-supported last out, in the same race that Icy Harbor exits. However, she broke awkwardly and was no factor. She was in good form on grass prior to that race, and you’ll get a great price on her here if you still believe. #8 How Lucky (5/2) improved sharply to a brisnet figure of 79 last out, when she rallied and missed against these types. However, she hasn’t raced since October 17.

RACE 2: CLAIMING $16,000 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 6 FURLONGS

5-7-3-8

#5 Torch Carrier (8/1) sat the trip and drew off to win easily against n/w2L company last out. She’s getting better with every race and is likely to get another good trip. #7 Little Ms Scarlet (7/2) has run back-to-back figures in the 80s, including a fourth-place finish against better at Aqueduct last out. She’s likely to get a similar trip as Torch Carrier, but has more of a grinding style that will likely make any win a desperate one. #3 Wrapper Rule (4/1) has drawn badly in two straight races, and flattened out after racing wide and making a premature middle move. Should get a better trip and therefore run a better race.

RACE 3: MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT, 2-YEAR-OLDS, 6 FURLONGS

6-9-5-2
#6 Whizwit (5/2) was the heavy favorite on debut at Delaware Park, but checked a few times in the stretch and ended up second. A claim of foul was launched, but dismissed. He’s had some time off since October 30 race, but should improve off his debut and gets Jevian Toledo in the saddle. #9 Codigo (4/1) will make his first start for Cal Lynch, who is 20% with first-time starters. His recent workouts at Fair Hill have been sharp. #5 Uncaptured Spirit (4/1) dueled on the lead in his first start at Delaware, and outfinished his dueling partner while finishing in a dead heat for second. It was a promising performance, but we’ll see if he needs a race first off the bench.

ANALYSIS

RACE 4: CLAIMING $16,000 (N/W2L), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 7 FURLONGS

2-7-4-6
The Rainbow pick 6 jackpot went down on Monday, so we’ll start from scratch today. #2 Sheriff Chip (4/1) cuts back around one turn and goes first off the claim for Dale Capuano. He was second against slightly weaker in back-to-back starts, but his figures from those races make him competitive here. #7 Speightster Red (6/1) is another recent claim, having been taken two back by Lacey Gaudet. He raced wide against better last out and was visually unimpressive, but steadily runs figures in the 70s and should find this group more to his liking. #4 Ice Rain (5/1) has had time off since a poor try against better in mid-November. He raced competitively against better earlier in the fall, and can contend if he bounces back first off the break.

RACE 5: MAIDEN CLAIMING $25,000, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, 1 MILE

11-9-10-8
#11 Bakeneko (2/1) drops back in for a tag for Claudio Gonzalez, and makes his third dirt start off the layoff. He earned a career-top figure of 78 when finishing fifth against better maidens last out. #9 Some Mo (9/2) races for a tag for the first time, and makes his first start since January 8. He showed speed and faded last out at Tampa Bay Downs, and has had steady workouts for a while now. #10 The Big Mozz (7/2) has run in the 70s in back-to-back races. He made a solid move to the lead last out, but was outkicked by the dominant winner, Graywing, and held on to a clear-cut second.
RACE 6: CLAIMING $5,000 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 6 FURLONGS
4-5-3-8
#4 Petion Lass (5/1) beat similar three races back, back in May at Pimlico. She doesn’t have much early speed, so look for her to rate at the back early and make a giant move late. That win came at six furlongs, so the distance isn’t that concerning. #5 Sarah’s Treasure (9/2) has improved in her last three races, and made a strong rally on an inside-favoring track in the Maryland Million Distaff Starter Handicap last out. #3 Eloquent Lady (6/1) set the pace last out and hung on well until late, improving her figure seven points. She has a great post position and should be a major factor on the early pace.

ANALYSIS

RACE 7: ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 5 1/2 FURLONGS

3-4-5-2
#3 A Penn Legacy (6/1) has improved dramatically since entering the Michael Gorham barn. He’s 2-for-2 for Gorham, with big figures both times. Those races were against weaker foes than he’ll see here, so this will be his class test. #4 Seven On the Rocks (8/1) was competitive against Maryland-bred allowance types at this time last year, but hasn’t raced since January 18. He’ll be up against it, considering he hasn’t raced in so long, but the value will be there. #5 Pederson’s Courage (6/1) finally broke through for his first career win, in his seventh try. He ran a career-top figure of 83 in that race, right around the mark needed to win this race.
RACE 8: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W2X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/16 MILES
7-3-9-6
#7 Galerio (8/5) was scratched out of a similar spot two weeks ago, and now returns here. He won eight times last year, and although he’s hit the board eight times from ten races in 2021, he’s won just once. Most of those races were against better company than he’ll see here, however. #3 Gentleman Jim (8/1) got up to win at this level in his most recent dirt start, then struggled when switched to grass. Looks like the value play of this field with the recent win against these. #9 Tybalt (10/1) has been knocking on the door at this level all year and can round out the exotics at a big price.
RACE 9: CLAIMING $5,000 (N/W2L), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 5 1/2 FURLONGS

7-6-1-2
#7 Fearless Lassie (5/2) battled on the lead and held on for second last out, bouncing back from a fall she took two starts back. She just missed her lifetime-top mark in that race, with a 70. #6 Writtenbythestars (4/1) races third off the layoff and looks like the main early speed threat in the race. She broke her maiden in gate-to-wire style two races back. #1 Sunday Swagger (6/1) broke her maiden at second asking two races back and tries winners in a sprint for the first time.