Laurel Park picks and ponderings October 30, 2021

by John Piassek | Oct 30, 2021 | Breaking, Handicapping

Horses round the turn at Laurel Park. Photo: Allison Janezic.

In which we pick the races from Laurel Park each day…

Post time: 12:25 p.m.

Carryovers: Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 — $1,220 Super High 5 — $0 Late Pick 5 — $0

ANALYSIS

RACE 1: CLAIMING $12,500, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 MILE

7-10-6-8
Laurel got hit with a ton of rain yesterday and announced they’d be off the grass last night. All grass races, like this one, will now be handicapped for dirt. #7 Simmard Shenanigan (20/1) has won three of her last six starts against similar types of claimers between Maryland and Delaware Park. She went off as the favorite last out against similar around two turns, and set the pace before tiring. The one-turn mile should help the cause. #10 Song of Indy (12/1) went gate-to-wire over the Presque isle Downs tapeta last out, and has the most dangerous early speed in the field. #6 I’m Listening (10/1) has won over the Laurel main track and earned a respectable brisnet figure of 70 in her most recent dirt start, against Jersey-bred stakes company at Monmouth Park.

RACE 2: MAIDEN CLAIMING $25,000, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES AND MARES, 7 FURLONGS

4-5-3-6

#4 Mexicali Rose (2/1) dropped to this level for the first time on dirt last out, and led most of the way before fading late. Not sure if she’ll like seven furlongs, but can get away with it early if allowed to set a modest tempo. #5 Steely Band (8/1) is 0-for-20 lifetime with eight seconds: the perfect horse to key underneath in the exotics. She closed very well for second last out, with some uncharacteristic late speed. #3 Foxtrot Seville (9/5) is the only one in the field who has never lost on dirt, having spent her entire career on grass up to this point. She goes first out for Keri Brion and races for the first time since late May.

RACE 3: MAIDEN CLAIMING $16,000, 2-YEAR-OLDS, 1 MILE

8-5-9-6
#8 Shemademelucky (7/5) ran a career-best 69 when she was a fast-closing second against $25,000 types going seven furlongs. She’s never gone a mile before, but having positive experience over seven furlongs is a good thing. #5 Keen Machine (4/1) was a non-factor on debut, but closed for second against 48/1 last out. Looks to keep moving forward third time out. #9 Kobe’s Girl (9/2) was a non-factor last out after a promising debut and looks for a rebound here.

ANALYSIS

RACE 4: STARTER ALLOWANCE $5,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 7 FURLONGS

4-1-5-6
#4 Joyful Noise (3/1) wasn’t much of a factor at this level two back, but this a softer field than she saw in that race, and she broke awkwardly in that race. Usually, she sits right off the pace and hangs around for a piece of the exotics. Bounced back with an 80 last out against better. #1 Nana’s Shoes (5/2) returns to Maryland and cuts back around one turn. She’s hit the board in thirteen of twenty at Laurel and has never missed the board over a wet track. The only caveat is that she has a deep closing style that might not play well at seven furlongs. #5 Tweet Away Robin (3/1) had a stretch of figures in the 80s but declined sharply in her last two starts. She’s had a few weeks off since her last start and has had two good workouts in between. Has every right to bounce back in a big way.

RACE 5 – CLAIMING $12,500, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 MILE

13-8-9-5
#13 Rough Sea (8/1) crushed the field in an $8,000 claiming race over a sloppy track two races back, with a figure of 86. He generally runs his best races on off-tracks, and that’s what he’ll get there. #8 Goodluckchuck (7/2) went gate-to-wire at this level at Timonium last out. While a gate-to-wire win at Timonium should be taken with a grain of salt, he’s still very fast early and will be tough on the pace. #9 Fuel the Bern (8/1) has just missed in his last few at Presque Isle and will likely be on the pace as well.

RACE 6: MAIDEN CLAIMING $25,000, 2-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES, 6 FURLONGS

2-1-6-7
Both #2 Sea Pines (5/2) and #1 Kymmies Chardonnay (9/5) have never lost a maiden claiming race before. I’ll give Sea Pines a slight edge, as she’s shipping from New York for Jeremiah Englehart, who is very dangerous with his shippers to Maryland. She ran a 73 on debut and declined when she stretched out to a route, but should bounce back here. Kymmies Chardonnay improved sharply last out for Brittany Russell and adds blinkers. #6 Redwhitentacos (8/1) continues to drop in class for Damon Dilodovico, having last raced for $40,000 after debuting in a maiden special weight. She improved seven points last out after a wide trip.

ANALYSIS

RACE 7: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $25,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 6 FURLONGS

6-7-1-5
#6 Alpha Chi Ro (7/2) has been a much-improved horse since returning from a seven-month layoff in mid-August. He hasn’t run worse than an 85 in that stretch while displaying potent early speed. #7 Southside Swing (7/2) also has blazing early speed and crushed a field like this one by 8 1/4 lengths last out with a figure of 88. The post is the only concern. #1 Magic Mule (6/1) has decent closing speed and the rail. He’ll sit the trip and hope the pacesetters burn each other out.
RACE 8: CLAIMING $5,000 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 6 FURLONGS
4-5-6-1
#4 Scottsdale (2/1) ran a career-best race at Penn National last out, going gate-to-wire with a figure of 85. He’s the primary speed of this field. #5 Phantom Ro (6/1) had a tough trip in his third start off the layoff and ended up well-beaten. He still ran a 69, his best mark since his return from the break. Could be on the verge of a big race at a good price. #6 Brian’s Avenue (9/2) just missed over an off track at Charles Town last out. He’s improved in each of his last three starts, peaking at a 75.
RACE 9: ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 MILE

3-9-4-5
Note that, even though the race was scheduled at 1 1/16 miles on grass, it’ll be run at one mile on dirt. #3 Mit Mazel (8/5) crushed the field in gate-to-wire style last out, I don’t think anyone here can run with her early, and she should leave them reeling. #9 Sweet Home Dixie (3/1) has been no worse than fourth in three tries at this level lately, and has solid late pace figures. Likely to close well and pick up the pieces behind Mit Mazel. #4 Tayler’s Chrome (20/1) has shown flashes of brilliance this year and will likely try to press Mit Mazel.

RACE 10: MAIDEN CLAIMING $16,000, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, 1 MILE

6-4-1-2
#6 Jack of Hearts (5/2) set the pace going 1 1/16 miles last out in a $25,000 race and faded in the last eighth. The cutback and the drop in class should help him carry his speed. #4 Fulgurant (12/1) tries dirt for the first time after some mixed-bag races on grass and Tapeta. He’ll likely rate well behind and try to pick up the pieces. #1 Super Houdini (5/2), a stablemate of Jack of Hearts, adds blinkers and has run figures as high as 78. The 0-for-18 record is less than ideal, however.