• Joseph Aiello
• April 30, 2021

After an unusual September running of the 2020 Kentucky Derby, this year’s race returns to the first Saturday in May to kick off the Triple Crown for the nation’s top three-year-olds. While there may not be as prohibitive a favorite as Tiz the Law from last year, undefeated Essential Quality will headline an evenly matched field with plenty of long-shot runners who have enough upside to pull off a shocking victory. After a six year streak of favorites winning the Derby, the last two years have seen interesting upsets, and this year’s version could prolong that new streak and provide plenty of betting opportunities.

The 12th race at Churchill, with a post time of 6:57 P.M. EDT, this competitive Derby has plenty of potential outcomes depending on who breaks early. Rock Your World could be the likeliest winner if he faces little pressure from Hot Rod Charlie and others who may vie for the lead, such as Highly Motivated. If the fractions are soft, look for Rock Your World to battle with and potentially hold off Essential Quality in the stretch. But some closing-style longshots may surprise and pass both leaders late if there is early pace. O Besos keeps improving and should be a nice price with potential to hit the board, and even longer shots like Sainthood will adjust well to the longer distance and can be played in exotics. With a relatively even field, it wouldn’t be surprising to end up seeing Essential Quality cross the wire first, but tread lightly in singling in on him to win here.

THE PICKS

1. #15 Rock Your World
2. #1 Known Agenda
3. #14 Essential Quality
4. #7 Mandaloun
5. #6 O Besos
6. #9 Hot Rod Charlie

(The past performances include all points races, and the blue buttons beneath each horse’s PPs pop up the race videos, or just click on the running line. The PP running line includes race date, finish position, points earned, race name, and track).

1. KNOWN AGENDA (6-1)

• TRAINER: TODD PLETCHER
• JOCKEY: IRAD ORTIZ JR.
• LIFETIME RECORD: 6-3-1-1
• MOST RECENT RACE: 1ST, GRADE I FLORIDA DERBY
• VIDEO PAST PERFORMANCES (includes all North American Derby points races)

Continues to improve and got a perfect trip from Irad Ortiz in the Florida Derby, and his ground saving style could benefit him here if he is able to find space to move in the stretch. The rail draw is tough, especially for a horse who won’t show early speed, but if any jockey can navigate through traffic it is Irad Ortiz. Looks to be Pletcher’s best entry of four in here, and should have no problem handling the distance. With a couple others who may be vying for the lead here, Known Agenda may be the best closing option in the scenario of a quick early pace. Good timing from Irad and a flurry of speed duelers give Todd Pletcher his best chance of reaching the Derby winner’s circle for the third time in his career.

2. LIKE THE KING (50-1)

• TRAINER: WESLEY WARD
• JOCKEY: DRAYDEN VAN DYKE
• LIFETIME RECORD: 6-3-2-1
• MOST RECENT RACE: 1ST, GRADE III JEFF RUBY STEAKS
• VIDEO PAST PERFORMANCES (includes all North American Derby points races)

Picked up the pieces in the Jeff Ruby coming from well off the pace, but has not won on a dirt surface, which makes this Ward trainee less likely than others here. The new closing running style from last time out may allow for him to adjust to the longer distance, but he still needs a few breaks to be competitive, and seems less likely than others. Continued improvement and an adjustment to the Churchill surface will be needed to have a respectable finish. 

3. BROOKLYN STRONG (50-1)

• TRAINER: DANIEL VELAZQUEZ
• JOCKEY: UMBERTO RISPOLI
• LIFETIME RECORD: 5-3-0-1
• MOST RECENT RACE: 5TH, GRADE II WOOD MEMORIAL
• VIDEO PAST PERFORMANCES (includes all North American Derby points races)

Gets the late nod into the Derby after Caddo River scratched out, and on the surface this colt has the look of a late addition with a poor recent effort in the Wood Memorial. While he will certainly be overlooked with a jockey and trainer that have not participated in the Run for the Roses before, his win in the Grade 2 Remsen where he outdueled the post-time favorite and Florida Derby winner Known Agenda in a closing effort was impressive. While that was by far and away his best effort, he may have taken to the sloppy track better than the others, and the small field plus pace set-up allowed him to have a relatively clean trip. This could be a runner who needs too many things going his way, and the lack of experience for his connections doesn’t bode well either. 

4. KEEPMEINMIND (50-1)

• TRAINER: ROBERTINO DIODORO
• JOCKEY: DAVID COHEN
• LIFETIME RECORD: 6-1-2-1
• MOST RECENT RACE: 5TH, GRADE II BLUE GRASS STAKES
• VIDEO PAST PERFORMANCES (includes all North American Derby points races)

Has shown some hugely impressive closing moves in the past, but seems to have taken a step back this year with back to back underwhelming performances. The good news is he has run in five straight graded tries, and his only win in those tries came at Churchill in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. With that being said, Keepmeinmind still clearly needs a few things to go his way to pull off a deep closing run, with a lot of early speed at the top of the list. One to keep an eye on to make a big move late, but also possible to have a tough trip and flame out in the early going.

5. SAINTHOOD (50-1)

• TRAINER: TODD PLETCHER
• JOCKEY: COREY LANERIE
• LIFETIME RECORD: 3-1-2-0
• MOST RECENT RACE: 2ND, JEFF RUBY STEAKS
• VIDEO PAST PERFORMANCES (includes all North American Derby points races)

An unlikely winner and Pletcher’s least “qualified” runner, but did not have the easiest of trips in the Jeff Ruby with no running lane at the top of the stretch. When Sainthood found space, he showed a good burst of speed and clearly had plenty left in the tank. In many ways, he may have been more impressive than the winner Like the King, although the switch from an artificial surface and his struggling win in a maiden two back leave this colt facing an uphill battle. At the very least, Sainthood should be well-suited for the added distance which usually is as important as any factor for these three year olds tackling their first try at a mile and a quarter.

6. O BESOS (20-1)

• TRAINER: GREGORY FOLEY
• JOCKEY: MARCELINO PEDROZA JR.
• LIFETIME RECORD: 5-2-0-1
• MOST RECENT RACE: 3RD, GRADE II LOUISIANA DERBY
• VIDEO PAST PERFORMANCES (includes all North American Derby points races)

This colt by Orb looks to repeat his dad’s Derby win with an off-the-pace run that showed improvement in the Louisiana Derby. An underwhelming Risen Star was followed by a strong third last time out, with a continued improvement in speed figures that have risen every start. If the trend continues, this is one that could surprise by finishing among the top at a good number. It would still be a shock if he were to win, but he is heading in the right direction and can be used in exotics at a good price.

7. MANDALOUN (15-1)

• TRAINER: BRAD COX
• JOCKEY: FLORENT GEROUX
• LIFETIME RECORD: 5-3-0-1
• MOST RECENT RACE: 6TH, GRADE II LOUISIANA DERBY
• VIDEO PAST PERFORMANCES (includes all North American Derby points races)

Came up empty and finished well behind Hot Rod Charlie, Midnight Bourbon, and O Besos in the Louisiana Derby which is troubling, but still has enough potential to be a factor here. Mandaloun showed a strong finish in the Grade II Risen Star two back, but may need to change his style to repeat that performance here. Florent Geroux will give Mandaloun his best chance by sitting mid-pack rather than stalking the leaders so that he can handle the distance which could be a concern. Avoiding another wide trip will also be necessary to have enough run left in the stretch. Being bet to favorite in every race and showing strong works over the Churchill track are encouraging signs that this colt by Into Mischief may have a bounce-back effort in him.  

8. MEDINA SPIRIT (15-1)

• TRAINER: BOB BAFFERT
• JOCKEY: JOHN VELAZQUEZ
• LIFETIME RECORD: 5-2-3-0
• MOST RECENT RACE: 2ND, GRADE I SANTA ANITA DERBY
• VIDEO PAST PERFORMANCES (includes all North American Derby points races)

Baffert’s lone entry doesn’t have the same appeal as some of his previous Derby contenders, and based on his past performances, seems to be a cut below the others here. Medina Spirit was not able to gain ground on Rock Your World in the Santa Anita Derby and may struggle with the extra distance here if Velazquez decides to go for a stalking trip. In the past, however, Baffert runners have managed to hold on to early leads and forward positions longer than expected, as with Authentic in last year’s Derby who appeared to be distance limited coming into the race. Medina Spirit’s slew of second place finishes at least show that he should be competitive, but may be a bit overmatched to win based on his previous efforts.

9. HOT ROD CHARLIE (8-1)

• TRAINER: DOUG O’NEILL
• JOCKEY: FLAVIEN PRAT
• LIFETIME RECORD: 7-2-1-2
• MOST RECENT RACE: 1ST, GRADE II LOUISIANA DERBY
• VIDEO PAST PERFORMANCES (includes all North American Derby points races)

This colt by Oxbow loses Joel Rosario to Rock Your World, but showed a strong finishing kick in his front-running score in the Louisiana Derby where he pulled away from Midnight Bourbon in the late stretch. The change in running style may be beneficial here, after coming up just short to Essential Quality in last year’s Breeder’s Cup Juvenile in a closing effort. With his recent use of tactical speed at a mile and three sixteenths, there is no indication that he shouldn’t be able to repeat that performance and handle the classic distance. A stalking or pace-controlling trip with modest fractions gives this O’Neill trainee his best chance of finding the winner’s circle.

10. MIDNIGHT BOURBON (20-1)

• TRAINER: STEVE ASMUSSEN
• JOCKEY: MIKE SMITH
• LIFETIME RECORD: 7-2-2-3
• MOST RECENT RACE: 2ND, GRADE II LOUISIANA DERBY
• VIDEO PAST PERFORMANCES (includes all North American Derby points races)

After grabbing the early lead in the Louisiana Derby, it became clear that this Asmussen trainee was next best to Hot Rod Charlie, whom he chased around the track for a second place finish. With better early runners and more consistent finishers, Midnight Bourbon may find it difficult to end up in the money here and appears to be slightly overmatched. With that being said, he has shown improvement and will need to try and settle down into a modest early pace here to hold on in the stretch. A recent bullet work over the Churchill track bodes well for an upward trend in his performance, but the distance may end up being a tad too far for this colt by Tiznow.

11. DYNAMIC ONE (20-1)

• TRAINER: TODD PLETCHER
• JOCKEY: JOSE ORTIZ
• LIFETIME RECORD: 5-1-2-0
• MOST RECENT RACE: 2ND, GRADE II WOOD MEMORIAL
• VIDEO PAST PERFORMANCES (includes all North American Derby points races)

Took a few tries to break his maiden, finally doing so with Kendrick Carmouche in the irons, only to be beaten by Carmouche on Bourbonic in the Wood Memorial. Jose Ortiz staying aboard is a good sign, but Pletcher’s duo from Aqueduct doesn’t look as intimidating as Known Agenda, and this colt seems to be an unlikely winner here looking at his past performances. He tends to save ground in races which don’t have much pace to run into, then comes up short in his stretch runs. Breaking well will be key here, as Dynamic One could get lost in the shuffle early, a problem for a runner who picked up his only win while on the front end. 

12. HELIUM (50-1)

• TRAINER: MARK CASSE
• JOCKEY: JULIEN LEPAROUX
• LIFETIME RECORD: 3-3-0-0
• MOST RECENT RACE: 1ST, GRADE II TAMPA DERBY
• VIDEO PAST PERFORMANCES (includes all North American Derby points races)

Undefeated in three starts, Helium comes out of the Grade II Tampa Derby after holding off Hidden Stash in the stretch for a close victory. He didn’t break particularly well in that try which could be an issue here, and didn’t come home very fast in that effort either after getting the lead at the top of the stretch. The break will be key for this Casse trainee, and avoiding a wide trip could lead to some continued improvement. The distance shouldn’t be a major problem for Helium, and his nose for the wire has proven to be enough to get him here. Even off of a very game win where a few things didn’t go his way, it seems like there are others here just a slight notch above him at the moment.

13. HIDDEN STASH (50-1)

• TRAINER: VICTORIA OLIVER
• JOCKEY: RAFAEL BEJARANO
• LIFETIME RECORD: 7-2-1-2
• MOST RECENT RACE: 4TH, GRADE II BLUE GRASS STAKES
• VIDEO PAST PERFORMANCES (includes all North American Derby points races)

The only one to run in the Tampa Derby then turn around for another prep race in the Blue Grass, this colt has the benefit of already having won at Churchill. Despite that advantage, this outside contender couldn’t get by Helium at Tampa despite the right closing trip, and seemed to take a step back in the Blue Grass. Even with a good pace set up in the Sam F. Davis stakes, Hidden Stash couldn’t quite gain enough ground to threaten the leaders. Maybe this is another one that will improve with extra distance and being one of the more heavily raced in the field, but this spot appears dubious.  

14. ESSENTIAL QUALITY (2-1)

• TRAINER: BRAD COX
• JOCKEY: LUIS SAEZ
• LIFETIME RECORD: 5-5-0-0
• MOST RECENT RACE: 1ST, GRADE II BLUE GRASS STAKES
• VIDEO PAST PERFORMANCES (includes all North American Derby points races)

Likely to be the post time favorite, Essential Quality won his toughest test in the Blue Grass over Highly Motivated after inching by him in the stretch. A clean trip in that race as well as relatively soft fractions benefited him late, but this three-year-old colt by Tapit has proven to be a game performer with four straight graded wins and a spotless record. A similar stalking trip from Luis Saez will put him in the mix coming down the stretch, and the added distance here shouldn’t be an issue as long as the pace doesn’t heat up. Clearly a prime contender who should find himself among the top finishers.

15. ROCK YOUR WORLD (5-1)

• TRAINER: JOHN SADLER
• JOCKEY: JOEL ROSARIO
• LIFETIME RECORD: 3-3-0-0
• MOST RECENT RACE: 1ST, GRADE I SANTA ANITA DERBY
• VIDEO PAST PERFORMANCES (includes all North American Derby points races)

One of, if not the, prime contender to take the early lead and control the race, this undefeated sophomore had a superb win in the Santa Anita Derby where he pulled away from the field after leading wire to wire. By speed figures and visually, the victory may have been the most impressive prep win of any runner in this field, and a repeat performance will have Rock Your World fending off others like Essential Quality in the stretch. While it will be difficult to control this race similarly, solid fractions and still having plenty in the tank in the late stretch means that distance shouldn’t be a problem. A clean trip from Rosario and little early pressure will make this colt a top contender.

16. KING FURY (20-1)

• TRAINER: KENNETH MCPEEK
• JOCKEY: BRIAN HERNANDEZ JR.
• LIFETIME RECORD: 6-3-0-0
• MOST RECENT RACE: 1ST, GRADE III LEXINGTON STAKES
• VIDEO PAST PERFORMANCES (includes all North American Derby points races)

Hard to gauge whether the Lexington win was a step forward as his only try at three, or simply a perfect set up with a fast pace and sloppy track that he adjusted to. The latter is probably closest to the truth, as his previous efforts show some struggles when stepping up into graded company. King Fury’s two against Essential Quality last year weren’t very close, which demonstrates a gap between him and the likely favorite here. While distance shouldn’t be an issue, there are others who have shown more consistency and look better in this field. 

17. HIGHLY MOTIVATED (10-1)

• TRAINER: CHAD BROWN
• JOCKEY: JAVIER CASTELLANO
• LIFETIME RECORD: 5-2-2-1
• MOST RECENT RACE: 2ND, GRADE II BLUE GRASS STAKES
• VIDEO PAST PERFORMANCES (includes all North American Derby points races)

Draws the dreaded 17 post that has never had a winner, but seems to be trending in the right direction and ran a very tough second to Essential Quality in the Blue Grass, where he attempted to go wire to wire for the first time. Much like some others, retrying that early run may be difficult in a larger field here and with extra distance, so look for Castellano to potentially settle this colt in for a mid-pack trip where he has had success in the past. With these connections and the recent game finish behind Essential Quality, this colt is very dangerous to end up finishing in the money. 

18. SUPER STOCK (30-1)

• TRAINER: STEVE ASMUSSEN
• JOCKEY: RICARDO SANTANA JR.
• LIFETIME RECORD: 8-2-2-2
• MOST RECENT RACE: 1ST, GRADE I ARKANSAS DERBY
• VIDEO PAST PERFORMANCES (includes all North American Derby points races)

Asmussen’s top entry arrives off a convincing win in the Arkansas Derby where he drew away from the field after sitting off of a solid pace. That effort was clearly a step forward and his best try yet, as he passed by Caddo River and the 1-5 Baffert favorite Concert Tour in the stretch, potentially showing his penchant for longer distance. With that being said, the field was small and Santana gave him a perfect trip, taking advantage of two tired pace setters late. This colt has also been inconsistent in his efforts at Churchill, and was having trouble breaking through against similar company up until last race. Taking his recent win into account, Super Stock clearly cannot be avoided and seems to find a way to finish in the money, but may need a similar set up and a clean, mid-pack trip to hit the board again which seems unlikely. 

19. SOUP AND SANDWICH (30-1)

• TRAINER: MARK CASSE
• JOCKEY: TYLER GAFFALIONE
• LIFETIME RECORD: 3-2-1-0
• MOST RECENT RACE: 2ND, GRADE I FLORIDA DERBY
• VIDEO PAST PERFORMANCES (includes all North American Derby points races)

FInished a clear second to Known Agenda in the Florida Derby and didn’t fade from the front like others there, but this seems like a tall ask to stretch out in distance while also likely needing to be involved early. The positives, however, are that Soup and Sandwich still has plenty of upside having only run three times and ran well with a significant step up in class last time out. Still, there would need to be noticeable improvement and possibly a mid-pack position for this grey colt to give Casse and Gaffalione some Derby redemption after teaming up on War of Will two years back. 

20. BOURBONIC (30-1)

• TRAINER: TODD PLETCHER
• JOCKEY: KENDRICK CARMOUCHE
• LIFETIME RECORD: 6-3-1-0
• MOST RECENT RACE: 1ST, GRADE II WOOD MEMORIAL
• VIDEO PAST PERFORMANCES (includes all North American Derby points races)

An impressive closing effort in the Wood Memorial which saw this 72-1 longshot come from dead last to finish ahead of another Pletcher Derby entry in Dynamic One will lead to a significant increase in interest in him at the windows. While the odds will drop and Pletcher entries usually fare well with added distance, this closer will need to continue to take a step forward to compete with some others here. The Wood Memorial featured soft early fractions with a slow final furlong, and Bourbonic may have taken advantage of a sub-par group that day, with no pace-setters able to handle the distance despite the slower start. Before that graded win, Bourbonic had two other victories both also coming at Aqueduct in maiden and optional claiming races. He and Kendrick Carmouche will need to hope for a significant early pace battle and another step up in performance to close into the money.