Christmas has finally arrived for thoroughbred horseplayers everywhere. Churchill Downs is to horse racing as Augusta National is to golf, as Daytona Speedway is to NASCAR, and as the Rose Bowl is to College Football. Rain or shine, nothing will dampen our enthusiasm come 6:24pm EDT on Saturday as we watch the most exciting 2 minutes in sports, the Kentucky Derby (G1).
The forecast for the Louisville area is for Mostly Sunny skies on Friday through Post Time on Saturday, high near 75 degrees with just a 20% chance of precipitation. That’s great news for those who perform less than their best when the track is anything but fast.
On Wednesday, Post Positions were drawn as a full field of twenty (20) 3 year olds have been entered plus two Also-Eligibles, #21 – Frammento and #22 – Tale of Verve. On Thursday afternoon, #11 – Stanford was scratched allowing Frammento to draw in as #21. Tale of Verve needs a second defector prior to scratch time (Friday at 9:00am EDT) to Run for the Roses. Frammento will break from Post 20 and those originally assigned Post #12 thru #20 will all move in one spot. Based on my analysis (after all scratches), here’s how the field of 18 stacks up as far as their running style...
3 – Early Speed
8 – Tactical Speed (Stalker)
2 – Mid-Pack
5 – Closers
There are many schools of thought when it comes to handicapping the Kentucky Derby. The sheer size of the field itself can be overwhelming. Every runner has his positives and negatives. The key is to somehow pull it all together then imagine how the race will be run.
With that being said, and my past performances marked up as if a pre-school class were turned loose on them, here’s HOW I SEE IT (the 141st running of the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands) playing out, listed in my predicted order of finish. Odds shown are the current betting odds after Friday’s advanced wagering.
Keep in mind I'm picking horses nearly 48 hours BEFORE they walk out on the track. If at all possible, you should not make your wager until you’ve seen the horses in the Post Parade (12 minutes before the start). When horses reach the track, their physical appearance and body language can tip you off on which one(s) to include in your Exacta, Trifecta, Superfecta or simply WIN, PLACE and/or SHOW bet. Good Luck!
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1st - #15 – Frosted
Trainer / Jockey (Derby Mounts W-P-S): Kiaran McLaughlin / Joel Rosario (5 1-0-0)
Running Style: Mid-Pack
Why he COULD win the Derby:. Earned the highest Brisnet Speed Figure (107) of any Derby runner in this field when winning the Wood Memorial in his final prep for the Derby. Trainer made many changes prior to that race (different jock, blinkers, throat procedure & venue) after he promptly stopped in Fountain of Youth when looking like a sure winner turning for home. The changes obviously worked. So any effort in the Derby close to that of his Wood race should be good enough to get that blanket of roses.
Why he SHOULD NOT be able to win the Derby: May have run his best race last time, improving his speed number by 18 points over his previous race. That kind of jump often leads to a “bounce” (aka regression) in his next race, which is the Derby. He’s gray. Not too many gray 3 year olds have won the Derby (most recent was Giacomo in 2005).
Morning Line Odds: 15-1
2nd - #8 – Dortmund
Trainer / Jockey (Derby Mounts W-P-S): Bob Baffert / Martin Garcia (3 0-0-0)
Running Style: Tactical Speed
Why he COULD win the Derby: There are plenty of reasons… he’s undefeated (6 for 6); has increased his speed figure in each of his races (sign that he continues to progress as a racehorse); has won a race over the Churchill Downs dirt surface; in his most recent race earned the 2nd highest Brisnet Speed Figure (106) among his Derby competitors and his sire (Big Brown) won the 2008 Derby. Above all of that, probably the most compelling is that he is tenacious! Appears to have a “Refuse to lose” attitude which he illustrated in the Los Alamitos Futurity and Robert B. Lewis Stakes, winning both by a head.
Why he SHOULD NOT be able to win the Derby: He doesn't need to be on the lead, but has he ever been BEHIND horses, getting dirt kicked in his face? I don't think so. Just watch all of his races (Twinspires "Race Replays" do not have replays for SA Nov. 2, '14 - the day Dortmund broke his maiden). In the 3 races where he was not on the lead, he was strung outside of the lead horse(s). Even in his most recent workouts (http://www.kentuckyderby.com/workouts), when working w/ a mate, he breaks off a few lengths behind but OUTSIDE of the leading mate. So Dortmund still has that question mark IMHO. How will he react if/when he's crowded, behind horses, with dirt flying from every direction?
Morning Line Odds: 3-1
Dortmund was all smiles and posed for his adoring fans Derby Week mornings
3rd - #18 – American Pharoah
Trainer / Jockey (Derby Mounts W-P-S): Bob Baffert / Victor Espinoza (6 2-0-1)
Running Style: Early Speed
Why he COULD win the Derby: Last fall after just one race, his trainer proclaimed, “He’s the best horse I’ve ever trained.” That’s quite a statement coming from a Hall of Fame trainer who has saddled over 2,500 winners including seven (7) in Triple Crown races. Since that proclamation, “Pharoah” has not lost, winning four (4) graded stakes races by a combined 22¼ lengths. In the mornings leading up to the Derby he is quite frankly an amazing physical specimen, pulling his exercise rider around the track with limitless energy.
Why he SHOULD NOT be able to win the Derby: Lack of stamina influence from his dam (bottom) bloodline. Dam sire Yankee Gentlemen and his ancestors earned their keep as sprinters. So the ability to get 10 furlongs appears to be a stretch. Also, not since 1945 has a Derby winner faced less than 10 foes in all of his previous career races. He won the Arkansas Derby. In that races’ 81 year history, one two winners have gone on to win the KY Derby (Sunny’s Halo (1983) and Smarty Jones (2004)). Since Churchill Downs began using a starting gate (in 1930), no 3 year old has ever won the Derby when breaking from Post #17 (note: with the scratch of #11 – Stanford, all runners from #12 post on out move IN one spot).
Morning Line Odds: 5-2
4th - #5 – Danzig Moon
Trainer / Jockey (Derby Mounts W-P-S): Mark Casse / Julien Leparoux (6: 0-0-0)
Running Style: Closer
Why he COULD win the Derby:. Runner-up in final Derby prep, the G1 Blue Grass Stakes when 15-1. This is the 3rd Derby starter for trainer Mark Casse. This week his son, Assistant Trainer Norman Casse commented they feel this son of Malibu Moon gives them the best shot yet to win the Derby. His final tune-up was a bullet (1st of 60) going 5 furlongs in :58 flat. So he obviously likes the CD surface.
Why he SHOULD NOT be able to win the Derby: He’s still eligible for N2L (non-winners of 2 lifetime) and was bred in Ontario (Canada). Only two (2) Derby winners have been Canada bred, Sunny’s Halo (1983) and Northern Dancer (1964). Has yet to crack a triple-digit Brisnet Speed Figure, typically a prerequisite for having a chance to win the Derby.
Morning Line Odds: 30-1
5th - #2 – Carpe Diem
Trainer / Jockey (Derby Mounts W-P-S): Todd Pletcher / John Velazquez (16 1-1-0)
Running Style: Tactical Speed
Why he COULD win the Derby: He’s 4 for 5 with his only blemish a distant second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last November. He’s looked brilliant in winning his only two races in 2015, the Tampa Bay Derby and Blue Grass Stakes. Many handicappers believe that a horse is ready to run his/her best race in the 3rd race after a layoff, which would be the KY Derby. Pletcher has three starters; his go-to rider picked this one.
Why he SHOULD NOT be able to win the Derby: It’s been 24 years since the Blue Grass stakes winner won the Derby. Better yet his grandsire (Storm Cat), whose stud fee peaked at $500,000, bloodlines have never produced a KY Derby winner. Pletcher has only one Derby winner from 43 runners, and that one (Super Saver in 2010) came on an Off Track and never even hit the board in his next 3 races before being retired to stud.
Morning Line Odds: 8-1
6th - #4 – Tencendur
Trainer / Jockey (Derby Mounts W-P-S): George Weaver / Manny Franco (1st Derby)
Running Style: Mid-Pack
Why he COULD win the Derby: Ran the race of his life when second behind #15 – Frosted in the Wood Memorial, earning a 105 Brisnet Speed Figure, a number that only four (4) others in this field have matched or exceeded. If he just runs back to that he’ll be a threat to “shock the world” on Saturday.
Why he SHOULD NOT be able to win the Derby: He’s still eligible for N2L (non-winners of 2 lifetime). Jock has no Derby experience. Nothing in his young riding career can compare to the daunting task of negotiating a clean trip for 10 furlongs at Churchill Downs on the 1st Saturday in May. Ditto what was said about #12 - International Star and #19 - Upstart… Only one NY-bred (Funny Cide; 2003) has won ever the Derby.
Morning Line Odds: 30-1
7th - #10 – Firing Line
Trainer / Jockey (Derby Mounts W-P-S): Simon Callaghan / Gary Stevens (20 3-2-1)
Running Style: Early Speed
Why he COULD win the Derby: He has improved his Brisnet Speed Figure by a few points in each of his career starts, with the most recent two being triple-digits. Jock is a 52 year old Hall of Famer who relishes one more chance to win a Derby after coming out of a 7-year retirement in 2013. Lost to likely second choice, #8 - Dortmund by a head… twice! So he should be considered a major player.
Why he SHOULD NOT be able to win the Derby: His bloodlines simply don’t have the stamina gene needed to win going this 1¼ mile distance. He’ll be looking for oxygen in mid-stretch.
Morning Line Odds: 12-1
Firing Line has been on the muscle, but his stamina is questioned
8th - #20 – Far Right
Trainer / Jockey (Derby Mounts W-P-S): Ron Moquett / Mike Smith (21 1-4-1)
Running Style: Closer
Why he COULD win the Derby: Should be free from any trouble approaching the first turn breaking from far outside and his running style will have him towards the back of the pack. The early pace should be quick, which would set up the race nicely for this guy who does his best running in the late stages (in the stretch). Hall of Fame rider Mike Smith only has one Derby victory, but it came on 50-1 longshot Giacomo in 2005.
Why he SHOULD NOT be able to win the Derby: He won his career debut at Churchill Downs. The last Derby winner to have done that was Brokers Tip in 1933.
Morning Line Odds: 30-1
9th - #6 – Mubtaahij
Trainer / Jockey (Derby Mounts W-P-S): Mike de Kock / Christophe Soumillon (1st Derby)
Running Style: Tactical Speed
Why he COULD win the Derby: He is a head away from being 5 for 5 on natural dirt surface races. The KY Derby has been the goal all along. His trainer is internationally known as one of the premier horse trainers in the world having saddled over one hundred Group 1 winners, shipping them all over the globe knows how to get a horse ready for a race.
Why he SHOULD NOT be able to win the Derby: An Irish-bred has never won the KY Derby. No 3 year old who has prepped overseas, more specifically via UAE Derby in Dubai has ever won the KY Derby. On principle, a Derby winner should have a name that the majority of fans can pronounce. Just in case he wins, phonetically it’s “Moob Taj”. After arriving in Chicago for quarantine, his connections could not obtain his normal feed, he lost some weight and stayed in Chicago longer than anticipated to regain weight and energy for the van ride to Louisville.
Morning Line Odds: 20-1
10th - #19 – Upstart
Trainer / Jockey (Derby Mounts W-P-S): Rick Violette, Jr. / Jose Ortiz (1 0-0-0)
Running Style: Tactical Speed
Why he COULD win the Derby: In four of his seven career starts has earned a triple-digit Brisnet Speed Figure, the most among Derby starters. By comparison, Dortmund is the only one that has three. Has only finished worse than second once, and that was by a nose in the BC Juvenile.
Why he SHOULD NOT be able to win the Derby: After the FL Derby his training was very briefly interrupted due to a slight fever. A 3 year old needs to be 100% to win the Derby. A ridgling (one undescended testicle) has never won the Derby. Ditto what was said about International Star… Only one NY-bred (Funny Cide; 2003) has won the Derby.
Morning Line Odds: 15-1
11th - #14 – Keen Ice
Trainer / Jockey (Derby Mounts W-P-S): Dale Romans / Kent Desormeaux (18: 3-1-4)
Running Style: Closer
Why he COULD win the Derby: 3-time Derby winning jockey Kent Desormeaux originally agreed to ride #1 – Ocho Ocho Ocho, but when this son of Curlin drew into the field just a week ago, the jock made the switch. Jock, trainer or ownership group teamed up with Dullahan (2012) and Paddy O’Prado (2010) in the Derby, both finished third.
Why he SHOULD NOT be able to win the Derby: He’s still eligible for N2L (non-winners of 2 lifetime). From seven (7) career races his best Brisnet Speed Figure is an unimpressive 94, the lowest high number among Derby starters. With his plodder running style, he seems cut out for even longer distances, say the 1½ mile Belmont stakes.
Morning Line Odds: 50-1
12th - #3 – Materiality
Trainer / Jockey (Derby Mounts W-P-S): Todd Pletcher / Javier Castellano (8 0-0-0)
Running Style: Early Speed
Why he COULD win the Derby: He’s undefeated (3 for 3) having won by a combined 11½ lengths, earning a triple digit Brisnet Speed Figure in his most recent two (100 & 105). The 105 figure is the third highest earned by any of the 20 Derby runners.
Why he SHOULD NOT be able to win the Derby: Lacks experience and didn’t make his career debut less than 4 months ago (Jan. 11) at age 3. Unraced as a 2 year old, he must overcome 132 years of Derby history, as Apollo in 1882 was the last Derby winner to have not raced at age two. If that’s not enough to keep you away, also note that Todd Pletcher (1 for 43 in KY Derby) is his conditioner. Finally, though ridden by one of the nation’s top riders, Castellano hasn’t come close to winning a Derby in his 9 attmepts (his best finish was 7th).
Morning Line Odds: 12-1
13th - #16 – War Story
Trainer / Jockey (Derby Mounts W-P-S): Tom Amoss / Joe Talamo (1: 0-0-0)
Running Style: Closer
Why he COULD win the Derby: Chased #12 – International Star in all three (3) Derby preps at Fairgrounds, twice finishing second and then 3rd in the Louisiana Derby. He’s never finished off the board and won his only start over the Churchill Downs dirt oval.
Why he SHOULD NOT be able to win the Derby: He won his career debut at Churchill Downs. The last Derby winner to have done that was Brokers Tip in 1933. He may have peaked in those Fairgrounds races which are a far cry from being able to jump up and win against this assembled field.
Morning Line Odds: 50-1
14th - #21 – Frammento
Trainer / Jockey (Derby Mounts W-P-S): Nick Zito / Corey Nakatani (17 0-1-0)
Running Style: Closer
Why he COULD win the Derby: He’s gonna break from the Starting Gate, and that in itself gives him a chance. Until Thursday afternoon, he was on the outside looking in… an Also Eligible, meaning he needed someone to scratch and #11 – Stanford did. As his trainer Nick Zito said, “I know we have to break from Post 20, but it’s better than breaking from Post ZERO.” His running style will help as he’ll be passing tiring horse in deep stretch. Whether he can pass all of them is another question. He has looked pretty fit in the morning when galloping on the track.
Why he SHOULD NOT be able to win the Derby: His jockey has won over 3,700 races, but none were in the KY Derby… in 17 tries. His speed figures just aren’t good enough to make one believe he even has an outside shot of winning.
Morning Line Odds: 50-1
Frammento staying fit while playing the waiting game throughout Derby Week
15th - #13 – Itsaknockout
Trainer / Jockey (Derby Mounts W-P-S): Todd Pletcher / Luis Saez (2 0-0-0)
Running Style: Mid-Pack
Why he COULD win the Derby: Recorded a triple-digit (102) Brisnet Speed figure in his second career start. Built to “get” the Derby distance as his sire (Lemon Drop Kid) won the 1½ mile Belmont Stakes. Has only raced at Gulfstream Park, which was uncharacteristically a deep and tiring surface this year... might take a liking to the CD dirt surface.
Why he SHOULD NOT be able to win the Derby: Only four (4) career starts, two (2) as a 3 year old which saw his speed figure drop in consecutive starts from that triple-digit one. On Wednesday after a 1½ mile gallop was the only Derby horse visibly sweaty as he exited the track. Not a good sign.
Morning Line. Odds: 30-1
16th - #1 – Ocho Ocho Ocho
Trainer / Jockey (Derby Mounts W-P-S): James Cassidy / Elvis Trujillo (1: 0-0-0)
Running Style: Tactical Speed
Why he COULD win the Derby:If #2 – Carpe Diem and #3 – Materiality (speed horses) don’t break well, allowing him to get a straight shot up the rail and to the lead. His sire (Street Sense) won the 2007 Derby, meaning he’s built to travel the Derby distance (1¼ mile).
Why he SHOULD NOT be able to win the Derby: The #1 Post in the Derby is typically death sentence, especially to a horse who needs to be on or near the lead. If Elvis can get the lead, it will be at a cost of asking too much, too soon in the early stages of the race. Had a fairly easy lead in reasonable fractions in his final prep (Blue Grass) but faded to finish a distant 3rd.
Morning Line Odds: 50-1
17th - #9 – Bolo
Trainer / Jockey (Derby Mounts W-P-S): Carla Gaines / Rafael Bejarano (8: 0-0-0)
Running Style: Tactical Speed
Why he COULD win the Derby: If #8 – Dortmund is considered the second choice at 3-1, then the 30-1 on this one is pretty generous as he challenged Dortmund in the stretch in both of his 3 year old races, finishing third just a few lengths behind. He’s not built to be successful going the Derby distance.
Why he SHOULD NOT be able to win the Derby: Jockey Mike Smith who has ridden him in 4 of his 5 career outings for fellow Californian (trainer Carla Gaines) opted to ride another 30-1 shot, #2- Far Right. This guy would be better served racing on the turf… and probably will be in his races following the Derby.
Morning Line Odds: 30-1
18th - #17 – Mr. Z
Trainer / Jockey (Derby Mounts W-P-S): D. Wayne Lukas / Ramon Vasquez (1st Derby)
Running Style: Tactical Speed
Why he COULD win the Derby: He’s the most experienced in the field with 12 career starts, 10 in graded stakes. Regardless of his lofty Moring Line Odds, whenever D. Wayne Lukas has a Derby starter, they have a chance (re: Thunder Gulch @ 25-1 in 1995).
Why he SHOULD NOT be able to win the Derby: His running style puts him in tight quarters close to the front runners as is the case with 10 of his foes in the race. He’s still eligible for N2L (non-winners of 2 lifetime). As with #2 – Carpe Diem, his grandsire (Storm Cat) bloodlines have never produced a KY Derby winner. Jock has no Derby experience.
Morning Line Odds: 50-1
note: #7 – El Kabeir was scratched from the race around 4:15 p.m. EDT on Friday (May 1st). He is dealing with what could be the beginnings of a quarter crack or abscess.
Due to this scratch coming after the Friday 9:00 a.m. deadline to allow the other Also Eligible #22 - Tale of Verve into the race, only 19 will run. Post position No. 1 will be left open (no horse) and all others (from post position 1 thru 6) will slide down with no gaps. Program numbers do not change, according to the Churchill Downs communications department.
UPDATED on Saturday, Derby Day morning. "I am sad to announce that (#12 ) International Star has a quarter crack in his hoof and has been scratched from the Kentucky Derby," tweeted Ken Ramsey, who owns the horse with his wife Sarah.
Based on my analysis of the Derby, I’ll put $89 into the race and play…
$10 WIN, PLACE, SHOW on #15 (Frosted) cost: $30
$2 EXACTA BOX on #5 (Danzig Moon), #8 (Dortmund), #15 (Frosted), #18 (American Pharoah) cost: $24
$1 TRIFECTA PART-WHEEL #2, #5, #6, #15, #18 with #8 (Dortmund in the 2nd spot) with #2, #4, #5, #6, #14, #15, #18, #21 cost: $35
Good Luck!
