LAUREL PARK PICKS AND PONDERINGS: march 4, 2023

Air Token
Air Token won the Maryland Million Sprint. Photo Allison Janezic.

In which we pick the races from Laurel Park each day…

Post time: 12:25 p.m.

Carryovers: Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 — $7,264 Super High 5 — $0 Late Pick 5 — $0

Check out our other handicapping here!

RACE 1: CLAIMING $8,000, 4-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/8 MILES

1-3-2-7

Nine races for a Saturday card. #1 Northern Thunder (2-1) looks like the better half of the Hugh McMahon entry. He’s run brisnet figures in the 80s three straight times, including at least an 86 three times in his last four starts. He raced wide throughout and faded against better rivals last out, but should get a better trip here, breaking from post position two. #3 Assembly Point (5-2) was third in that race. He made a wide move towards the front around the far turn and hung on well in the stretch. He’s stretching out from a mile here, and won four in a row around two turns (or more) last summer or fall. #2 Mystic Link (3-1) ships in from Parx for Jamie Ness and chased a loose leader last out, holding on for second. He could find himself setting the pace here in a race without much other speed.

RACE 2: CLAIMING $16,000 (N/W3L), 4-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 MILE

3-5-1-2

#3 Aristocrat (8-5) fought hard on the rail and cleared his n/w2L condition last out, bouncing back nicely from a dull race two starts back. The only other horse in the field with speed is longshot Mr. Mosely, to his direct inside, so he should be able to dispatch of that rival easily and hold off the others. #5 Divine Law (7-2) began awkwardly in his first start at this level and didn’t do much, but ran a respectable 75. He’s shown slow improvement since breaking his maiden in mid-August. #1 Majestic Frontier (2-1) has had many chances against these types, but keeps falling short. He’s going second off the layoff for Jerry Robb and will do his best running late.

RACE 3: MAIDEN CLAIMING $20,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS, 6 FURLONGS

7-1-6-2

My top three picks exit the same race on Feb. 10. #7 Collect Redemption (8-5) showed speed for the first time last out, holding third after dueling for the lead. The winner sat a perfect trip off the duel, while Collect Redemption’s dueling partner got second by a half-length. He’s run at least a 75 twice in his last three starts and should enjoy the drop from the $30,000 level. #1 Sheriff Ronnie (4-1) was fifth behind Collect Redemption last out, rallying wide and making decent ground late. He went off favored on debut at this level but got caught in traffic. #6 Inspired Irish (4-1) goes third off the layoff and has run lifetime-top figures in back-to-back starts.

RACE 4: CLAIMING $5,000, 4-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 MILE

5-3-6-1

#5 Hot N Spicy Love (7-5) made a strong move to win going away at this level last out. No one will get rich betting him, but he should once again have minimal trouble dispatching of these. Two of the horses he beat that day, #3 Camp Pendleton (7-2) and #6 Ekati’s Verve (9-2). The former beat an $8,000 field four starts back and is a contender at his best, but has somewhat in-and-out form. The latter has matched or improved his figure in his last four starts, peaking at a 78 last out.

RACE 5: CLAIMING $10,000 (N/W2L), 4-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 1/16 MILES

9-5-6-1

#9 Water Witch (5-2) ships up from Tampa Bay Downs after a dull effort on grass over there. She hit the board twice on dirt with figures in the 70s earlier in the meet and drops further in class here. #5 Hov Lane (4-1) is cross-entered in a shorter spot tomorrow, but she’s finished second three times in a row at this condition, all of them at a mile or seven furlongs. In every start, it looked like she was going to get by at the top of the stretch, but flattened out every time. While she has to be considered for underneath spots, that’s not a great sign for win betting purposes. #6 Torre Branca (7-2) went off favored over Hov Lane last out, and closed strongly for third. She has no early speed at all, so we’ll see how she does stretching back out around two turns.

RACE 6: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $20,000, 4-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 6 FURLONGS

6-10-1-2

#6 Bigmancan (7-2) sat a great stalking trip and kicked away to win easily with a career-best 96. There’s some speed in here, so he should be able to sit off a potential duel and get another good setup. #10 Forth (8-1) also came from off the pace and got up to win at this level in a 14-1 upset. It was his second straight win and his second straight career-top figure. He usually comes from off the pace and runs the risk of getting caught wide, but if he can avoid losing too much ground he should have plenty left for late. If anyone is going to sneak away on the lead, it’ll likely be #1 Aristocratic (6-1), who has blazing speed from the rail and lasted through pressure last out before getting caught in the last few yards.

RACE 7: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS, 5 1/2 FURLONGS

6-3-1-7

#6 Lost Weekend (4-1) went off as the favorite at this level last out, but flattened out after racing towards the rail. He turned in a solid workout last Saturday, so he should be able to rebound here. The caveat is the track condition: his dull last race was on a wet track, and the track may still be wet here after last night’s rain. Was the surface the cause of his dull showing last out, or was it something else that he’s gotten over? #3 On the Mark (3-1) has run in the 80s in back-to-back starts and was third after a wide trip behind the impressive Noah Chance last out. #1 Where is Mike (8-1) gets a class test after three straight impressive wins at Charles Town. He’s going second off the layoff and lures Marshall Mendez from West Virginia for the mount. He has tons of speed but has never raced beyond 4 1/2 furlongs. Looks like an interesting wild card.

RACE 8: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W2X), 4-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 5 1/2 FURLONGS

1-6-3-4

#1 Holy Synchronicity (3-1) dueled for the lead last out, sent his sparring partner to a sound defeat, and was beaten only by Doppelganger, the favorite who sat a perfect trip off the battle. This one’s cutting back from a mile; this distance should suit him better. #6 H P Moon (9-5) returned off a nearly year-long layoff last out, and ran a career-best 98 despite tiring late over a slow track that had increasing amounts of moisture. He’s another one who is hoping for a track that dries out quickly. He has lots of potential and his true colors will shine through if he gets into a duel with Holy Synchronicity. His stablemate, #3 Chocolate Shake (4-1), rated off the pace and won impressively last out with a career-best 95. He’s racing for the first time since Dec. 11 and hopes his stablemate will set it up for him.

RACE 9: CLAIMING $40,000 (N/W2L), 4-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 MILE

3-4-2-6

Eleventh time was the charm for #3 Isabella’s Glory (7-2), as she broke her maiden with a dramatic come-from-behind effort last out, running a career-best 84. It was an outlier performance from her prior races, but it’s easily the best last-out figure in the race and some of her best races have come at this distance. #4 Oh Mrs. Maisel (5-2) has led and hit the board in her last two starts at this level, and it looks like it’ll be a similar story here. #2 Blueberry Indygo (3-1) showed speed and finished fourth against better last out. She’s gong third off the layoff and is slowly rounding back into form. She ran in the mid-80s around this time last year, but has run in the low/mid-70s in her last few.

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