Timonium picks 2022: GQ Approach September 2

Longtime handicapper Gary Quill got his ‘capping start at Timonium, and he returns once again this year with the GQ Approach, providing Timonium picks and analysis for every day of live racing at the Maryland State Fair.

Where’s the value? When do you eat the chalk, and when do you take a stand against it? And, hey, where’s the corn dog stand? Nobody knows Timonium better than Gary!

Race 1

  1. #2 – Nobody’s Secret (3-5): Beaten favorite when last raced v. better at north NJ shore (Mth); hope 12th start is the charm     
  2. #4 – Alittlesliceof Pie (3-1): Speed figures are ascending for 12-time loser taking steep drop to bottom of maiden ranks  
  3. #3 – Hov Lane (8-1): Has yet to lose on dirt because all three starts have been on turf; trainer K Cox delivers on drop (25%)

Race 2

  1. #4 – Camp Pendleton (3-1): Drops from higher open claiming ranks while consistently earning speed figs that can win here
  2. #1 – Dashing Lou (9-2): Third start after a 9-month layoff should find this 8-year-old gelding ready for a top effort
  3. #5 – Big Rinne (10-1): Won his only start here in 2019 at this same distance which is his best (4 wins, 8 ITM from 11 races)  

Race 3

  1. #4 – Lady Serenity (5-2): Three career starts where she was leading from gate to mid-stretch going 5f; only goes 4f today   
  2. #5 – Mama’s Eyes(3-1): Full sis to $617k earner Street Lute; Mr. & Mrs. Mays had 7 kids but only one was named WillIe  
  3. #1 – Mo Co Gold (5-1): 1st time starter by Goldencents; dam went 0 for 7 but was 3rd in debut as Post time favorite                       

Race 4

  1. #3 – Rad Paisley (8-5): *BEST BET* Paid immediate dividends in 1st start after claim winning on step up into allowance company; can repeat v. these as foes can’t match his speed       
  2. #4 – He Hate Me (9-5): Goes for natural hat trick taking one small class step up each race, may have found his back class      
  3. #1 – Nomo Ron (5-1): An uninspiring return to races after a 10-month vacation; hoping this 7 y.o. can return to form that has earned him 19 top two finishes from 36 career starts                 

Race 5

  1. #7 – Can’t Stop This Man (5-2): Threw in a clunker in latest when shipped to Mth; perennial Parx runner will try his luck in The Big T bull ring with jock making maiden journey here                 
  2. #6 – John’s Promise (9-2): Been facing groups of runners, some of whom have come back to win in their next outing; made his racing debut a winning one on this oval 3 years ago        
  3. #3 – Tapping the Glass (6-1): Last seen competing in race 5 months ago at CT but has been putting A.M. drills since June

Race 6

  1. #6 – It’s Sizzling Time (3-1): Among the runners in this event, this one has fared the best in these allowance “non-winners of one other than” condition getting minor shares, not wins    
  2. #2 – Yes Sir Robert (3-1): Two quality starts at Lrl after claim by trainer Farrior, who seems to be filling most races at the Big T meet in search of trainer title; gate-to-wire threat    
  3. #1 – Smarty John (5-2): Seems to have bitten off more than this 3 y.o. this colt could chew facing a tough field at Mth following 10-length maiden win; trainer-jock combo lethal    

Race 7

  1. #8 – Holding Court (6-1): $ LONGSHOT $ Willing to toss turf try in latest when taken out of element early; could do same for sloppy track try; last in both so looking at glass half full               
  2. #2 – Martharita (9-5): Disappointed her backers opening day when sent off Post Time favorite (no thanks to being GQ top pick) BUT got no help from rivals as winner led gate-to-wire              
  3. #1 – Middle Island (7-2): This gal has neither gotten much better nor much worst with maturity; drop in class will help           

Race 8

  1. #2 – Award Wanted (2-1): Owns BRISNET top Prime Power number of these gals; should get a nice, rail stalking trip   
  2. #6 – Response Time (9-2): There’s plenty of early speed signed up here so she’ll need to find extra stamina for “W”                   
  3. #1 – Margie’s Heaven (8-5): 19 career races for this 5 y.o. mare and gives it her best shot in each; was in over her head in latest, a restricted turf stakes sprint, but can make amends           

Race 9   

  1. #4 – Targe (1-1): Could only manage to be second best when sent off as prohibitive favorite at Lrl a level higher; can somewhat redeem herself v. much weaker in the nightcap      
  2. #5 – Special Freedom (9-2): Only 2-for-21 lifetime but usually finds her way into the Exacta or Trifecta; trainer F. Allen III runners find Winners Circle 20% of time on this class drop       
  3. #1 – Some Is Nine (8-1): A game 3rd place effort at CT when very wide on the first turn; has earned higher speed figures on a few occasions which gives hope maybe today is the day