Timonium picks 2022: GQ Approach August 27

Longtime handicapper Gary Quill got his ‘capping start at Timonium, and he returns once again this year with the GQ Approach, providing Timonium picks and analysis for every day of live racing at the Maryland State Fair.

Where’s the value? When do you eat the chalk, and when do you take a stand against it? And, hey, where’s the corn dog stand? Nobody knows Timonium better than Gary!

Race 1

  1. #6 – R True Sensation (5-1): Opening Day saw plenty of gate to wire winners; if that holds true in Day 2, this gal has a shot   
  2. #4 – Ravenel (2-1): Stretched out to be runner-up in 1st race off C. Harding claim; previously sprinted so lightbulb is “on”?   
  3. #2 – Torch Carrier (10-1): Trained by the unofficial Mayor of The Big T, “Snake” Frock, this one will be heard from early on

Race 2 

  1. #5 – Howard’s Back (8-5): Opening Day ’21 & ’22 trainer C.  Gonzalez got shut out; Day 2 ’21 believe he won 4; déjà vu?         
  2. #3 – Bold Trek (12-1): Could surprise and be on the lead when passing the Ferris Wheel but can he hold off all rivals to wire 
  3. #2 – Sky of Gold (2-1): Last raced 3-months ago when broke maiden at Pim; just 1 slow work in over 2 months? No thanks!  

Race 3 

  1. #1 – Welling (9-2): * BEST BET * There’s enough early speed types in here to give this gelding a perfect stalking rail trip 
  2. #2 – Savoy (9-5): Find the Pen speed figures always a bit inflated; then again if other speed doesn’t go, it’s his race 
  3. #5 – Up Against It (9-2): Returns to dirt after a pair of turf tries, trainer C. Gonzalez wins at 25% clip with this move                  

Race 4 

  1. #6 – It’s Game Time (7-5): Failed as 1-1 PT fav. in latest but had excuse. couldn’t catch lone speed who left some in tank
  2. #5 – One Two Kid (8-1): Needed to return to turf to find some of his back class; let’s hope he can retain it when back on dirt  
  3. #1 – Monyinthebanksey (6-1): Trainer R. Sanchez-Salomon saddles #4 but 1st time saddling this one after claim which seems to be his strong suit, winning at a 22% clip                  

Race 5 

  1. #6 – Never Free (12-1): $ LONGSHOT $ Recent races are better than they appear; with an alert start she lights up tote 
  2. #3 – Cami Rachelle (9-5): Flat-footed start in debut, rushed up to contend leaving no gas in the tank late; gate-2-wire threat
  3. #1/1A – Com On/Gherkin (3-1): JD can’t ride both so hoping 1 is scratched, 1A has bullet works & SCR from MSW at Lrl Sat.

Race 6 

  1. #8 – Click to Confirm (9-5): 3 y.o. needs a smart ride by A. Cruz to stalk the plethora of early speed then pounce late     
  2. #2 – Italian Dressing (12-1): Could be déjà vu all over again as this filly missed by a half-length here last yr at this level
  3. #6 – Brunella (6-1): Threw in a clunker as 6-5 PT favorite in 2nd start for 27% trainer A Farrior; can benefit from hot pace   

Race 7 

  1. #1 – Jasontakeslong (9-2): This one and his stablemate (#6) are only 2 in race w/ early speed, my guess is jock on 6 defers        
  2. #3 – Uncle Jerome (4-1): Has disappointed his backers in last 5 of 6 races sent off at 2-1 over less; will be 3-1 or more 2day          
  3. #5 – Award Nominated (7-2): Earned career best speed fig in latest which matches 7-5 ML fav (#4) who IMHO needs to prove him v. elders          

Race 8 

  1. #1 – Imagine It All (5-2): About trainer D. Capuano… wins 22% 1st race after claim + 26% 1st time blinkers usually = “W” 
  2. #8 – El Patojo (10-1): 3rd race off form cycle and exits a game 2nd at CT when foe impeded his progress entering the stretch 
  3. #6 – Syncopated (12-1): Has early foot and jock who loves to hustle his mounts to lead; could outlast only other speed (#4)          

Race 9   

  1. #6 – Sweet Willemina (12-1): Mixed it up with the elite at Sar in latest & ran on for 3rd; likes this distance; 2nd best speed fig    
  2. #8 – Battle Bling (8-5): Might be best based on her graded stakes efforts but has bad case of Second-itis (8x in 18 tries)
  3. #9 – Jades Gelly (15-1): Career sprinter successfully stretched
            out in 28th start in N2x condition; hope she can pass all faders 

    Race 10   
  1. #1 – Hot Spice (5-1): Has shown 4-furlong early speed in all 4 starts going 5½ – 6f but today she only needs to go 4f for “W”
  2. #7 – Baby Wonder (8-1): Very fast from gate in debut at Pid but backed up like city trash truck; 3 works since a good sign
  3. #4 – Skyfly (3-5): I forbid you to bet this one to WIN, sure her foes appear woeful, but she hasn’t raced March of last year