Timonium picks 2022: GQ Approach August 26

Longtime handicapper Gary Quill got his ‘capping start at Timonium, and he returns once again this year with the GQ Approach, providing Timonium picks and analysis for every day of live racing at the Maryland State Fair.

Where’s the value? When do you eat the chalk, and when do you take a stand against it? And, hey, where’s the corn dog stand? Nobody knows Timonium better than Gary!

Race 1

  1. #3 – Only Child (5-2): Gets the nod in the State Fair lid-lifter; should be heard from late as all the early speed fades late  
  2. #7 – Awesome Dynamo (2-1): Should dictate the early pace in gate-to-wire try but will 10lb. bug rider handle tight turns?
  3. #4 – Drum and Bass (5-2): Head-strong gelding will require jock to harness his energy as going this distance might be a furlong too far; candidate to hang in stretch like a dirty shirt   

Race 2

  1. #7 – Martharita (2-1): Staggered home to finish second in last outing just 7 days ago but still good enough to beat these   
  2. #5 – Beautiful Gem (4-1): 5-year-old made career debut last month a winning one taking a suspect field at Parx gate-2-wire 
  3. #6 – Miss Casey (5-2): 1st start v. better elders 3 weeks ago was forgettable; will contest early pace w/ top two. Who survives?  

Race 3

  1. #7 – Mad Genius(5-1): Just 2 career races and last raced 6 months ago but was well-backed in both while winning debut and runner-up in next; In X-Man we trust when aboard a J. Robb trainee who does well with his runners at the Big T
  2. #8 – Sponsored (9-2): Broke maiden by 7+ lengths v $20kMCL group that saw 3rd-place finisher come back to win next race
  3. #6 – Liberty Star (9-2): Can boast the best career speed figure of this bunch; all others stepping up in class or exit restricted                        

Race 4

  1. #2 – Strands of Pearls (2-1): * BEST BET * From this ‘capper’s perspective, this filly is lone speed which gives her a distinct advantage to get her third career victory; be thankful to get even money as trainer B. Russell runners always attract $$$
  2. #6 – Sweet Talia (3-1): Was much the best in her victory over N2L gals in latest even w/ horrible trip; needs early pace help    
  3. #4 – Candy Corner (5-1): Dundalk native trainer B. Brooks got 1st career win at The Big T last Sept; his barn looks primed to have a good meet in ‘22. This runner is due good racing luck                   

Race 5

  1. #1 – My Boss (9-5): Appears to be the speed-of-the-speed in this 4f sprint; rail post gives this filly shortest distance to “W”          
  2. #4 – Kymmies Chardonnay (2-1): Sports quicker first quarter times than top pick but tends to get leg weary in deep stretch       
  3. #2 – Karats and Gold (6-1): Could surprise if the top two falter as she has good early kick under terrific gate rider J.D. Acosta

Race 6

  1. #8 – Tilted Tiara (4-1): Beaten favorite returns to race 2nd time with blinkers for trainer who always has ‘live’ runners      
  2. #4 – Fishers (5-2): Seems deep-pocketed owners want to cut bait on this $132k purchase, adds blks
  3. #7 – Doomscroller (6-1): Prudent M. McMullen claim 3 back; has since raced twice v. better w/o embarrassing herself; if early pace is too hot, she’ll be rallying as they turn for home      

Race 7

  1. #1 – Beverly Park (1-1): Even money at Post Time is a pipe dream as he’s been less than that in 8 of last 10 starts; takes full advantage of this Starter Condition dating back to 07/21           
  2. #4 – Oxide (10-1): Hasn’t raced in nearly 7 months but has a nice work tab; trust L. Gaudet has helped him find back class              
  3. #6 – The Wolfman (3-1): Never OTB in four contests for this Alw5000s including two wins; got to hope #7 is up to running early with the heavy favorite so he can stalk and pounce late    

Race 8

  1. #4 – Coffeewithchris (6-1): $ LONGSHOT $ Barn must have had high hopes for this one based on going off Post Time fav in first two starts; got gift “W” via DQ but has the look of one who should relish the added distance and benefit from a Ding-Dong speed battle between #1 and #6    
  2. #6 – Prove Right (1-1): Takes the typical route to The Big T by prepping at Saratoga in stakes races (sarcasm); exits races v. the crème de la crème of racing but will bull ring be for him?            
  3. #5 – Livin Large (6-1): Handsome MD-bred son of Uncle Lino made it look easy in debut at CT when not having an alert start; he’s a threat here if he takes a natural step forward           

Race 9   

  1. #8 – Virginia Fulla (5-2): Exits a pair of grass routes v. a few levels higher and ran to his double-digit odds; drops to bottom where he should get his confidence back     
  2. #5 – Tyler Time (6-1): Lone win came at this distance and was runner-up here in ’21; might be a horse for the course
  3. #3 – Under Fire (10-1): Rushed up to engage PT fav. in latest which followed maiden score; got extra rest and one work out between starts; stalking early pace should be the plan