PARX PICKS AND ANALYSIS: APRIL 27

Math Wizard
Math Wizard was along in time to upset the 2019 Grade 1, $1 million Pennsylvania Derby. Photo by Allison Janezic.

Parx Racing has an 11-race card this afternoon, and Joe Parisi is on board to handicap. Post time is 12:35 p.m. Good luck!

Carryovers: None

Note: Joe likes multi-race wagers, so horses in these may be considered for doubles and Pick 3s, in particular.

RACE 1

  • #4 Tiz Effective (3-1): New gelding, first time-Lasix, and class drop could lead to a score
  • #1 Dr. Grunseich (9-5): Should improve in third try with this jockey-trainer combo.
  • #2 Favorite Image (7-2): Class drop and new racing surface and distance might wake him up.
    • PICK 4 WAGER (the following wagers are meant to cover a range of possibilities while putting more money behind those considered most likely):
    • $2 P4:     4/6/4/6
    • $1 P4:     1,2/6/4/6     4/2,5/4/6      4/6/2,6/6    4/6/4/1,2
    • $0.50 P4:    1,2/2,5/4/6    1,2/6/2,6/6    1,2/6/4/1,2   4/2,5/2,6/6    4/2,5/4/1,2    4/6/2,6/1,2
    • Total: $22

RACE 2

  • #6 Intervention (3-1): Unusual for a horse to win next race after breaking maiden but not much competition here.
  • #5 Jamie’s Wanderlust (2-1): 110-day freshening and maybe her problems have been fixed.
  • #2 Lady Mistress (6-1): In bad form lately but 14 April workout looks better.

RACE 3

  • #4 Mithra (2-1): Went wide last time. Should win with a better trip.
  • #6 Cantstoprunning (9-2): Should get the lead and that makes this gelding playable.
  • #2 Sambam (3-1): Closer has a shot if the speed wears down on the front end.

RACE 4

  • #6 Speed Syndrome (5-2): Slow start and got out on the slow part of the track last time. Can win with a better start.
  • #1 Quality Special (4-1): Best early speed must be considered. Not much other speed in here.
  • #2 Earthquake (3-1): His speed figures put him in the mix in the exotics.

RACE 5

  • #2 Halite (7-2): Dropping down to the level where he won two in a row last summer.
  • #8 Nick Papagiorgio (5-2): Jamie Ness bringing this one up from Maryland. Has been in the money 16 times in 24 lifetime starts.
  • #3 Terry’s Charm (8-1): 8-year-old has talent with $375K lifetime earnings. Any improvement over last will put him in right in the mix.
    • PICK 4 WAGER (the following wagers are meant to cover a range of possibilities while putting more money behind those considered most likely):
    • Note: This pick 4 is using #5 Chub Wagon as a single in race #8
    • $2 P4:    2/3/5/5
    • $1 P3: 3,8/3/5/5    2/2,6/5/5    2/3/2,6/5    3,8/2,6/5/5    3,8/3/2,6/5    2/2,6/2,6/5
    • Total: $20

RACE 6

  • #3 Incite (9-2): Very competitive race and any of these could win. I’ll give the advantage to Incite because of his early speed and ascending Beyer figures.
  • #2 Town Jak (4-1): Last two races look very strong.
  • #6 Star Sign (3-1): Always gives a strong effort and usually figures in the trifecta.

RACE 7

  • #5 Scoop Dawg (9-2): Nice workout pattern and Kathleen DeMasi usually has her horses ready to run. Sire Jump Start has 15% winners on 3 and up first time starters.
  • #6 Inspired Options (6-1): Scott Lake would not be moving him to MSW if he didn’t belong.
  • #2 Because I Can (4-1): Ran a strong first race. Can win with any improvement.

RACE 8Unique Bella Stakes

  • #5 Chub Wagon (4-5): Led at every call in first four races and no reason for that to change against these.
  • #2 Ujjayi (7-2): Has faced tougher competition than the others here and if you throw out the last on synthetic she has a shot.
  • #3 Trolley Ride (6-1): Long layoff but if she can return to last year’s form she will be right in the mix.

RACE 9 – Page McKenney Stakes

  • #1 Chilly in Charge (5-1): Closer has good figures and lots of early speed here sets up well for him.
  • #4 Breezy Gust (4-1): Won three in a row with figures in the 90s. Formidable!
  • #11 Admiral Abe (3-1): Always gives a good effort and no reason for that not to continue.

RACE 10

  • #6 Danzafied (6-1): One mile was a little long and got caught in a speed duel last time. 30-day rest and should be ready for a big effort.
  • #4 Kidnapped (9-2): Big unknown since hasn’t run since 2YO season, but class drop makes him playable.
  • #2 Strawberry Red (8-1): Has flashed early speed recently but will need to return to last year’s form to win today.

RACE 11

  • #7 Quiet Please (5-1): Back down to a level where she should be competitive on third after the claim.
  • #9 Passport Required (3-1): In good form lately and should be on the lead early.
  • #3 Spectacular Now (12-1): Second after the claim and dropping back to a level where she can compete.

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