Laurel Park picks and ponderings December 13, 2019

Anna’s Bandit. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

In which we pick the races from Laurel Park each day…

Post time: 12:25 p.m.

Carryovers: Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 — $13,336; Super High 5 — $2,801; Late Pick 5 — None

Notable: Trainer Jerry Robb is 17-for-62 with a $3.13 ROI going turf to dirt.

RACE 1

3-5-1-4
Let’s give another crack to #3 Master Distiller (9-2) in this maiden claimer; the Sagamore Farm runner had some very good efforts late last year and earlier this year before things went sideways after he left the DePaz barn; back home, he didn’t show much last time out but he was never asked for his best in the lane and drops another step today; if he can get back to anything resembling the horse he was in February, he wins here… Favored #5 Great Go Go (9-5) takes a two-level drop for trainer Tim Keefe and two back ran pretty well at the $40,000 level, but note that he got away with an easy lead and couldn’t seal the deal…

RACE 2

6-4-1-5
In her second start in the Claudio Gonzalez barn and dropping into an easier spot off an acceptable effort last time, #6 Landing Zone (3-1) gets our nod in this spot… The deserving favorite in this spot is #5 Naughty Thoughts (8-5), who dusted our top choice when they met two back, but this runner ran just a week ago in the Maryland Juvenile Filly Championship, and the concern is taking short odds on a horse who must have had something taken out of her when running a distant third behind the very impressive Hello Beautiful… Big drop here for #4 Paisley Singing (5-2), who bested allowance rivals last out and may have an advantage on the off track today…

RACE 3

6-4-1-7
Last time out the late-running #6 Blame the Kids (5-1) didn’t get much pace to run into in a second-level allowance and finished well up the track; by contrast, this optional claiming/starter event looks to have plenty of early types to spice up the pace — among them another runner trained by this one’s trainer, Kieron Magee — which might allow Blame the Kids to strut his best stuff; look for him to be rolling late at a distance he likes and over an off-track, which he also likes… Tepid favorite #4 Unbridled Outlaw (7-2) makes his first start in the Farrior barn and has competed with better than these but arrives with two straight defeats, the second of which was against lesser… #1 Try Flying (5-1) chased #5 Hayne’s Fever to no avail last time but figures to get a more congenial arrangement today with other speed signed on to complicate that rival’s trip…

ANALYSIS

RACE 4

5-1-4-2
We’ll eat the chalk in here with #5 Too Much Minutia (7-5), who should find the class relief to her liking and picks up rider McCarthy today… Curious to see what #4 Shake D Moon (15-1) does in this spot; the Rubley trainee hasn’t shown much on dirt — she’s not bad at all on turf — and this has the look of a tough spot for her, but seeing Pimentel in the irons — that trainer-jock combo hits at 26% — makes you wonder if she might be sitting on a move forward…

RACE 5

2-4-6-1
Three scratches, including that of the favorite #9 Warm, seem to throw this one in a bit of disarray, and we land on the Gonzalez trainee #2 Mia Gift (6-1), who’s won two straight and gets Carrasco in the irons today… The Mary Eppler-trained #4 Pearl Gem (6-1) was thrashed two straight by Warm but won’t have to deal with that rival today; she makes her first start in two-plus months…

RACE 6

1-11-6-13
Top choice #1 Midnight Crossing (7-2) arrives with two straight wins, the first of which produced four next-out winners and the second of which has seen the two to run back both finish in the money; she should be on the lead or up close from the get-go under Karamanos… Thinking an improved effort may be in the offing for #11 Majestic Pic (12-1), who has run competitively against similar and should appreciate cutting back to six furlongs after a tiring effort going a mile… #6 Market Money (6-1) makes her first start in two months for trainer Jerry Robb; though her dirt form isn’t much, she’s kept much better company on the grass, and Robb is 17-for-62 with a $3.13 ROI going turf to dirt…

ANALYSIS

RACE 7

2-8-7-10
Unless one of the first-time starters turns out to be something, this looks to be a pretty evenly matched maiden special weight heat, and we’ll take the Mark Reid-trained #2 Omni Diva (9-2) on top; the daughter of Awesome Again rallied mildly into third on debut and should appreciate the added furlong today… Jonathan Thomas sends out #8 Evocative (4-1), who didn’t run poorly when fourth in a grassy maiden event at Belmont, but note that only one of seven to run back has finished in the money… We’ll include first-timer #7 Windy Lane (5-1) on the ticket, though she may need a race or two; she’s a half-sis to graded winner Fioretti and stakes winner Louisville First but does not have a particularly win-early pedigree… #10 Sudden Brilliance (9-2) has run a pair of good races, one on turf and one on dirt…

RACE 8

2-11-8-6
Five scratches take a bit of a toll on this contest, and we end up on the favorite, #11 Lady Kim (9-5); the likely odds are probably too short, but she ran on willingly last time once finally in the clear, and breaking farther outside may prove an advantage for her… #6 Flirtation Walk (6-1) figures likely to try to grab the early lead and take ’em as far as she can… #8 Towson (7-2) has had gate issues in her last couple, and last time out she was very hard to handle, hopping at the start, rushing up, rank when clear; if rider Rosales can get her to settle, she can be a player today…

RACE 9

8-7-11-9
Another race with numerous scratches, we’ll take a stab with the Dale Capuano-trained #8 Rip Rap Riley (8-1); he enters with three consecutive wins while moving up the ladder, and last time out he showed a new dimension when rating off the pace before rallying to win — always a good sign… #7 Odds On (20-1) has been keeping better company than these and may improve with class relief today…