The GQ Approach – Laurel November 16

by | Nov 16, 2019 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing | 0 comments

Photo by Dottie Miller.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel for the live fall racing meet, Post Time 12:25pm EST including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today’s carryovers

  • Rainbow Pick 6: $3,667
  • Super High 5: none
  • Late Pick 5: none

Multi-race wagers

  • Race 1 – $2 Double  1, 4, 5 w/ 4, 7 ($12)
  • Race 5 – 50 cent Pick-5 2, 6, 8 w/ 1, 6 w/ 1, 2 w/ 2, 4, 6 w/ 5, 6 ($36)
  • Race 8 – $2 Double 2, 4 w/ 4, 5, 6 ($12)

Best Bet of the Day

  • Race 7: #2 – Cofactor (4-1)

Longshot Play of the Day

  • Race 1: #4 – Nurse Betty (6-1)

 Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Sunny ; high near 40
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST

First Race Post Time 12:25pm EDT

Race 1 

  1. #4 – Nurse Betty (6-1): $$$ Longshot Play $$$ Adds Lasix in third career start; was a 6-5 debut winner at Prx two months ago then didn’t handle a sloppy surface over the same oval and/or bled; this Tapit descendent is worth a look      
  2. #5 – Punk Rock Princess (9-5): Should improve in third race after layoff and getting the stamina builder, going one mile in latest; must be a tough one to ride as S. Russell will be fifth different pilot in her last five starts 
  3. #1 – One Slick Chick (6-1): Stretches out beyond 6 furlongs for first time while exiting restricted stakes at Del 48 days ago; note that T. McCarthy takes mount on this J. Ness filly for first time while abandoning Ness’ other filly (#3) who he’s ridden in all four of her starts. Hmmm     

Race 2 

  1. #4 – Stormin Hongkong (5-2): Brisnet speed figures have been ascending as he’s traveled the Mid-Atlantic circuit, being part of the trifecta in last six (6) outings but just one victory which came at The Big T and at this same level and distance      
  2. #7 – Threethehardway (8-1): Will need three dice to accomplish that and better effort than last two against restricted MD bred/sired runners; ambitiously placed since claimed  out of $12,500n3L win; will need a reversal of fortune as best Lrl finish has been fourth from four tries but should dictate early pace          
  3. #6 – Caladan (2-1): Rough trip and rank in latest on turf, his second start for trainer D. Capuano following $25k claim; early end of turf season can’t sit well with these connections so it’s back to dirt til Spring        

Race 3 

  1. #7 – Elusive Hero (9-2): Loves the Lrl dirt (7:3-2-1) and never of the board at the distance (5:3-1-1); meets a septet of geldings that lack early speed that can match his, with the exception of #2 – Uplifting who miraculously found early speed in latest but under a different jock than today  
  2. #1 – Blame the Kids (3-1): Seems to be most successful when racing at the $16k level; scored in latest after 5-month layoff to earn a career best 93 Brisnet speed figure; the concern is the cut back to a sprint for a runner that takes 5 furlongs to get out of first gear
  3. #5 – Lion Lord (5-2): Confident move by trainer M. Reid who claimed this 5-year-old in latest for $12,500 as he’s out of claiming jail yet steps up one level; typical retraining effort with a six-pack of works leading up to first start for new barn   
Race 4 

  1. #3 – Benintendi (5-2): Picking this one out of leftfield; an OBS $270k purchase as a 2-year-old, this gelded son of Take Charge Indy had to cease training for debut last Dec. until early Aug. but has stuck to a steady A.M. schedule; B. Russell training speed into him as last three works been handily and quick      
  2. #5 – King Nekia (2-1): Six-time starter has a pair of second and third-place efforts but no races in past 5-months during which he got the ultimate equipment change (gelded); showed early speed in every start and has two bullet works ahead of return   
  3. #2 – Hello Amigo (10-1): Exits turf try that didn’t go well, giving way in the stretch going 5 1/2 furlongs; reunited with V. Carrasco after a two-race absence; jock/trainer combo been winning at a 20% clip the past year

Race 5 

  1. #2 – Mandette (4-1): Adds blinkers for return to Lrl where she started her career 13-months ago, the only race of her five that she finished off-the-board; seemingly not ready for racing she didn’t make next start until 8 months later; a distant second to a next out winner while SHOW finisher did the same  
  2. #6 – Esterina (6-1): Cold temps in the area typically brings a firmer, more speed-favoring dirt surface which plays into this gals strength; key is to get early leadas she did 3 back going this distance at Del 
  3. #8 – Hunting Season (12-1): Tis the season fresh off her maiden win in fourth start for trainer C. “Shug” McGaughey; will need to take a big step forward but this $575k yearling purchase in 2017 could blossom into a a star 

Race 6  is the James F. Lewis III Stakes

  1. #6 – Bernie’s On Fire (9-2): Impressive debut win for this Friesan Fire colt; displayed tactical speed which should come in handy versus this group who at least a half dozen of them will be pressing the pace 
  2. #1 – Newstome (4-1): Speed from the rail, gets back on natural dirt after winning a PA-bred stakes on the synthetic surface of Pid; has the late pace numbers to prevail  
  3. #5 – Tuggle (3-1): Better than his past performances show as he’s been thrown in three graded stakes events (2 on turf) since winning his debut in the slop at Bel; pedigree suggests he should keep racing on grass but around these parts, turf season is over; depending on the result here, he maybe be heading south for the winter

 Race 7 is the Smart Halo Stakes

  1. #2 – Cofactor (2-1): *** BEST BET *** Gray daughter of The Factor a game two-time winner from three starts must be one with real promise as Jersey Joe Bravo makes the trip down I-95 for only mount on Lrl card   
  2. #1 – Letsstaypositive (3-1): Interesting claim for $75k by trainer M. Lovell as previous trainer W. Ward must have thought there would be no takers for this Palace Malice gal even after a sparkling debut win at Kee; appears to be the speed of the speed 
  3. #6 – Summer Fortune (2-1): A blistering debut at Bel last month was geared down late leaving this Capper to think we’ve only seen the tip of the iceberg; trainer J. Englehart has enjoyed a 30% success rate at Lrl over the past year 

Race 8 

  1. #4 – Sparty (9-2): Popular in the Claiming Box thus year, changing hands four times but based on his last two outings for trainer L. Gaudet in restricted allowance company, a runner-up followed by a win, he’ll never be in for the tag anytime in the future; chance for a gate-to-wire score   
  2. #2 – Nico Bree N Teej (5-1): Beaten favorite when last seen in the afternoon racing at Del; Md-bred returns to Land of Pleasant Living where he’s just 1 for 18 which is usually unacceptable for the C. Gonzalez barn; the good news is he’s at his best going this one mile distance (8:2-3-1) 
  3. #6 – Totalitario (5-1): A rare off-the-baord finish when fourth in first start in 6-months but one has to believe trainer K. Magee will get this ATM (8:3-4-0 at Lrl) back in the Winners Circle sooner than later

Race 9

  1. #5 – Bird Traffic (7-5): Go home a winner while being a Chalk Eating Weasel… but not so fast, why would a promising 3-year-old filly be transferred from J. Navarro to C. Gonzalez AND drop in for a tag? Guess that’s how you maintain winning at a 25% clip. This gal has racked up some serious miles as Lrl is 7th track she’ll race at in her 7th start  
  2. #6 – Ortinola (7-2): Waters get deeper following win v. $16kn2L foes in first after F. Allen $10k claim but she was facing better earlier this year; confidence in 5 lb. bug A. Whisman to repeat that effort  
  3. #4 – Cassidy Ave (8-1): Draw a line through latest as she “popped the gate pre-race” losing any chance for the redo; will face easiest group of gals in her career; jock/trainer have donw well with limited chances (3 for 8 the past year)