The GQ Approach – Laurel November 15

by | Nov 15, 2019 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing

Photo by Dottie Miller.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel for the live fall racing meet, Post Time 12:25pm EST including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today’s carryovers

  • Rainbow Pick 6: $2,683
  • Super High 5: none
  • Late Pick 5: none

Multi-race wagers

  • Race 1 – $2 Double  3, 6 w/ 3 ,6, 7 ($12)
  • Race 5 – 50 cent Pick-5 3, 4, 8 w/ 3, 4, 6 w/ 5, 6 w/ 6, 8 w/ 1, 2 ($36)
  • Race 8 – $2 Double 6, 8 w/ 1, 2, 5 ($12)

Best Bet of the Day

  • Race 7: #6 – Limited View (2-1)

Longshot Play of the Day

  • Race 8: #6 – Mortal Storm (12-1)

 Analysis

  • Weather: Partly Sunny ; highs in the 40s
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST

First Race Post Time 12:25pm EDT

Race 1 

  1. #6 – Campari (8-5): Third start after 13-month layoff  and stretches out to two-turn as he ran evenly in last two sprints at this $10kn2L level      
  2. #3 – Elevated Forever (5-2): Caught in deep stretch when 33-1 on class drop following a 6-month turf campaign; been runner-up twice in three outings on dirt
  3. #4 – Senor Seville (6-1): Best efforts have been on turf versus better and at this 1 1/16 mile distance; just one, uninspiring fast track try on resume’  

Race 2 

  1. #7 – Princess Cadey (4-1): Drops in for tag after being a bridesmaid at CT when sent off 0.30 favorite; looks to shake Seconditis as she’s been runner-up in 5 of 6 starts    
  2. #3 – Good Life Cider (6-1): Daughter of Uncle Mo makes dirt debut in third career start; third as 9-5 favorite in debut on Lrl lawn for trainer M. Matz who gets turf-to-dirt runners to Winners Circle 22% of the time         
  3. #6 – Worstbestideaever (5-2): Earned SHOW purse when 97-1 in MD Milion Lassie last month that saw eighth-place finisher come back to break maiden in $25kMCL; can boast best Brisnet dirt speed figure of the fillies in here     

Race 3 

  1. #7 – Homeofthe Lombardi (2-1): This 3-year-old is a four-time winner in against elders who have yet to win 3; appears his Achilles Heel is an off track and distances beyond 6 furlongs; this contest is at 5 1/2 furlongs and the Lrl dirt will be dry as a bone  
  2. #2 – Geyser (12-1): Failed going 2+ miles as a steeplchase competitor so he was put in turf sprints and he liked it; was roughed up in latest on Lrl lawn but showed he can handle the main track with a game third, three back in an off-the-turf $25k Starter event    
  3. #1 – Rip Rap Riley (4-1): Another 3-year-old who won his third career race in latest and seeks the natural Hat Trick today; socred as the bettors choice in those two and will attract money here with the scratch of 5-2 ML 2nd choice (#3 – Ummu Ummu Ummu)  

Race 4 

  1. #7 – Hunt Me Down (9-5): The most experienced maiden in here with 10 starts but just 3 on the dirt with two runner-up efforts; that’ s good enough to get the nod in his third start after an 11-month layoff
  2. #8 – Pistoleiro (5-1): Third career start, second for the L. Gaudet barn and second time with blinkers which often results in a positive ROI; takes hasty drop from $20kMCL to $10k; may not have cared for mud in latest at Bel as he shows a decent work at Lrl since that outing  
  3. #2 – Unconquered Spirit (15-1): Outrun in debut at Pen when in for $25kMCL and sent off a frigid 35-1; that was a sprint in which he got going late; small barn has big numbers (3 for 6) in Sprint-to-Route move 

Race 5 

  1. #3 – Bettyann (7-2): Promising start to this AR-breds career winning debut at homeland track (OP); took immediate vacation then resurfaced at Del for trainer M. Matz though same owner/breeder; drops from three tries against first-level allowance foes, showing 4-furlong speed going 6 panels; second start with blinkers 
  2. #4 – Grand Skylark (10-1): Tossing her latest when pinched at the start and unable to clear her rivals early, thus the jock took care of her and just jogged in the slop; gets upgrade as leading rider T. McCarthy will get a leg up; if the track is kind to speed, she is a must use on horizontal tickets  
  3. #8 – Can the Queen (12-1): Stopped abruptly in second start, first on dirt when ambitiously placed after winning debut on turf at $16k level; like the fact jock A. Cruz doesn’t bail on her and trainer who has won with him at a 30% clip   

Race 6 

  1. #4 – Persian Queen (3-1): Well-traveled 2-year-old filly won debut at The Spa, ran evenly in a minor stake at Mth then won a $50k Starter at Kee… never beyond 6 furlongs; stretches out to one mile here which shouldn’t be a problem based on pedigree (by Union Rags out of a Pulpit mare)
  2. #6 – Rising Bella (12-1): Del-based filly is 1 for 5 but that one win came in only fast track start and earned a nice 88 Bris#, which is second best in here (#2 owns best at 92); has raced on turf three times since that maiden win for trainer/jock team (A. Pecoraro/J. Rose) who have won at a 36% clip the past year    
  3. #3 – Ankle Monitor (2-1): Local leading trainer C. Gonzalez must have liked this gal a lot to ship her to The Big A for a $150k stakes, which she earned SHOW purse via DQ after finishing fourth of six; returns home to take on an easier group of gals; intertesting that Prx-based jock A. Castillo gets to retain mount, his only one on the Lrl card  

 Race 7 

  1. #6 – Limited View (2-1): *** BEST BET *** Wouldn’t bet the farm on this one as she’s been a head-case her entire racing career but if she gets the early lead, which shouldn’t take much of an effort seeing her rivals running styles (except for the #5), she could make every pole a winning one; considering she entered the gate in MD Milllion Distaff off a 4-month layoff indicates she’s fit; FYI – was tangled with Asst. Starter when gate doors opened, hence she was declared a non-starter  
  2. #5 – Contrarity (6-1): Usually quick from the gate when on grass but wasn’t so in off-the-turf outing in latest; strong run for 5 furlongs but the last 1/16th of a mile is what typically get her beat; good sign that J.D. Acosta is back aboard 
  3. #3 – Off My Stage (9-5): Just one start since late May could be the fact races at this level aren’t filling as her work tab is full; career 3 for 9 as all victories have come on Lrl main track; jock J. Correa might engage early leader IF the pace is not too swift 

Race 8 

  1. #6 – Mortal Storm (12-1): $$$ Longshot Play $$$ Pace play here as this filly has grabbed the early lead going one mile in her last two and never looked back; yes she continues to step up in class but catches a group that lacks her early speed; the cold weather has made the ground firmer and more conducive to produce gate-to-wire winners 
  2. #8 – Victory Gallop (9-2): On paper is the best in here but following three consecutive runner-up finishes, twice as 7-5 favorite, it’s hard to trust this 5-year-old mares will to win; should get a nice stalking trip to get first run on the pace-setter(s) in the stretch
  3. #3 – Warm (5-2): Winner of four (4) straight on the dirt, the last three on the Lrl oval as prohibitive favorite; will face her toughest test locally and might have to put pressure on the pace-setter early, making her vulnerable in the lane  

Race 9

  1. #2 – Go Lover (12-1): Could complete a healthy late Double or help one bettor take down the Pick-6; drops in class seeking to graduate after coming up empty in three turf starts; not bred to run on the grass and work tab on dirt is not horrible; like the 6 furlong work in August and fact trainer R. Graham is 24% with MSW-to-MCL move
  2. #1 – Junior Senator (5-2): Three starts on main track have yielded three third-place finishes, so why should we expect any different today? Because his foes haven’t done much better; like the jock switch to A. Cintron  
  3. #5 – Monumental Vending (15-1): Was 0 for 13 mostly in MSW events, then took off nearly 9-months to come back for $25k then two $40kMCL starts that the running lines look bad but were due to bad luck… “Forced out start; wide”, “Rank start, steadied 1/2” and “Steadied start”; drops in class, gets more distance and with clean trip… ya never know