Laurel Park picks and ponderings November 1, 2019

by | Nov 1, 2019 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing

Anna’s Bandit. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

In which we pick the races from Laurel Park each day…

Post time: 12:25 p.m.

Carryovers: Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 — $1,126; Super High 5 — $3,428; Late Pick 5 — None

Notable: 11 races on a Friday? That must mean it’s Breeders’ Cup Friday – good luck!

ANALYSIS

RACE 1 

With the favorite in here scratched, this becomes a wide open affair, and we lean towards #9 Created Special (6-1). The Jeremiah O’Dwyer trainee made a mild middle move in his debut, on the grass, but here shortens up, gets blinkers on, receives Lasix for the first time, and switches to the dirt, on which his siblings were better. Oh, and he gets the trainer’s go-to rider Sheldon Russell up – seems like all systems may be go on the drop-down… Doncha have to play day-after-Halloween hunch play #2 Spooky Island (15-1) in here?

Selections: 9-2-1A-7

RACE 2 

Thus far in his career, #3 True Prosperity (9-2) has found her way into a bunch of spots that were over her head: chasing 1-20 Diva’s Revenge, running in never-won-three spots though she has just a single win, etc. Here she finds the easiest spot since breaking her maiden, gets Trevor McCarthy up, and has every right to be a major player… Look for an improved effort from #9 One Two Three Go (5-1), who had been consistently running decent races before throwing in a clunker last out in her first trip to race under the lights at Charles Town… #12 Sybil’s Prophecy (10-1) was green as grass when winning her debut by a handy eight lengths…

Selections: 3-9-12-2

RACE 3 

After a couple of unsuccessful tries in second-level allowance company, #8 Awesome D J (4-1) should appreciate the class relief today… Huge effort last out by #4 Brooks Robinson (5-2), and a repeat would make him tough again in this spot. But we’re not quite ready to take favoritism on the expectation of a repeat after he was 11-1 that day and set a new top Beyer fig by 15 points. He also may have company on the front end in the form of #3 Baron of Bluegrass (10-1), who didn’t run a step last out and was not persevered with. If he breaks well, he’ll be at the very least a forward factor early…

Selections: 8-4-1-3

ANALYSIS

RACE 4 

You’ve got to figure that runners like #4 Conjecture (5-2), #6 Ten Count Out (4-1), and #8 Discreet Deceit (6-1) all will be in the early vanguard in this allowance sprint. That might make it set up for #1 Lady by Choice (3-1) if rider Victor Carrasco can work out a trip from the rail. This miss has been toiling with some success at this level throughout the year…

Selections: 1-6-8-4

RACE 5 

Maryland-bred allowance runners tangle in the fifth, a race which includes two out of the Maryland Million Classic nearly two weeks back. Show horse #8 Tappin Cat (5-2) and fourth-place finisher #6 Torch of Truth (9-5) both are here and, after seventh-place finisher Clubman’s win yesterday, expected to have an impact. We have a slight preference for Tappin Cat, whose early speed makes him a bit better suited to this seven-furlong distance… Curious to see #1 Big City Blues (9-2) off a nine-month layoff. He was competitive at this level last winter, and trainer Lacey Gaudet is 5-for-29 with runners off similar layoffs…

Selections: 8-6-1-7

RACE 6 

There are some pretty nice horses in this open allowance fo fillies and mares going two turns, but only one of them has the look of a star in the making. That’s #6 Arrifana (4-5), who is 3-for-3 for trainer Kelly Rubley in her brief career, winning those races by a combined 17+ lengths. She won by five last out in a two-other-than going a flat mile and here will try stretching out to two turns for the first time. Regular pilot Julian Pimentel – who followed her up to Saratoga for her second start – has the mount…

Selections: 6-4-1-5

ANALYSIS

RACE 7 — OFF THE TURF

In his last two tries against allowance foes, #13 Absolved (5-2) has caught a couple of tigers: Bustoff, winner of six straight, and Empty Tomb, a $190,000 son of Speightstown who’s 2-for-3 in his career. Doesn’t seem to be anything quite like those runners in here… #10 Pretty Good Year (6-1) has had some pretty good tries on the main track, and while his most recent, back in June over a sloppy, sealed strip, was a mess, he may appreciate the somewhat drier surface he’ll confront today…

 Selections: 13-10-2-5

RACE 8 

Pretty intriguing 2-year-old maiden special weight on offer here, and we’ll take a stab with #9 Irish Charmer (4-1). Trainer Graham Motion tends to do better with second- and third-time starters than with firsters, but this Graydar filly has been training forwardly at Fair Hill and has a win-early pedigree. Several of her sibs won at two, and the best of them, the multiple graded winner Irish War Cry, was 2-for-2, including a stakes win, as a juvy… Look for a better effort today from #7 Dontletsweetfoolya (10-1). In her debut, she broke slowly before absolutely flying up along the outside, passing virtually everyone to get to second to press the pace. She actually put a head in front entering the lane before running out of steam late, but if she can break and then settle, she’ll use a lot less energy in the early going…

Selections: 9-7-4-10

RACE 9

Perhaps the cutback will help #5 Remain Anonymous (9-5) in this 2-year-old allowance. The Mike Trombetta trainee won nicely at first asking at the Spa but then failed as the favorite in an allowance at Parx. In that race, she broke a bit slowly, tugged up into contention, had to wait for room at the top of the stretch, but didn’t really go on after that… #7 Paisley Singing (5-1) ran pretty well to be third — at 41-1 — against similar two back, and while her follow-up, in the Maryland Million Lassie, could net only a fifth-place finish, that was a rough group…

Selections: 5-7-4-1

RACE 10

This looks to be a good spot for #1 Too Much Minutia (9-2) to double up. The Jamie Ness trainee broke her maiden last out at the $40,000 level and now shows up at the $25,000 level, which should be just about right. Ness will leg up go-to rider Trevor McCarthy… The favorite, #6 Olive Kat (2-1), finds her lowest level but arrives off a poor performance…

Selections: 1-3-5-6

RACE 11 — OFF THE TURF

We’ll use a couple of firsters and a couple of more experienced runners in here. #5 Bernie’s On Fire (9-2) comes from the hard-hitting Claudio Gonzalez barn and makes his debut here. The same is true for #6 Chauffeur (15-1); the Street Sense gelding makes his debut for trainer Katy Voss, who is 4-for-17, with 12 in the money, with first-time starters… #14 Nextstop Pokipc (5-1) didn’t show a ton on debut, but trainer Jeremiah Englehart adds blinkers on today and saw enough that he thought it worthwhile not to drop the horse a step… #4 Palvera (15-1) ran competitvely against similar at Delaware Park…

Selections: 5-14-6-4

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1 Comment

  1. Avatar

    Yes, its a very win early family with Motion’s horse in the 8th. Think 5/6 sibs of Irish Charmer have been 1st or 2nd 1st out for Irish Soverign. Can’t say I like the vet scratch on 10/4 though. A wise man told me that it’s not that big of deal if its a reputable trainers horse, so no worries; right?

    Reply

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