The GQ Approach – Laurel October 17

by | Oct 17, 2019 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing

Photo by Dottie Miller.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel for the live fall racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today’s carryovers

  • Rainbow Pick 6: $6,138
  • Super High 5: $897
  • Late Pick 5: $5,681

Multi-race wagers

  • Race 1 – $2 Double  2, 3 w/ 2, 4, 7 ($12)
  • Race 6 – 50 cent Pick-5 8 w/ 3, 4 w/ 3, 6, 8 w/ 5, 7 w/ 2, 6 ($12)
  • Race 9 – $2 Double 5, 7 w/ 2, 6 ($8)

Best Bet of the Day

  • Race 3: #4 – Hunting Season (2-1)

Longshot Play of the Day

  • Race 7: #4 – Captain Trips (6-1)

 Analysis

  • Weather: Sunny and Windy; highs in the 50s
  • Scheduled turf races: 1st, 4th, 5th, 6th, 8th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST / Turf – OFF

First Race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #2 – Heavenly Hattie (8-1): Third race after layoff, second start with blinkers and Brisnet speed figures have been climbing so why not?! Jock J. Mendoza got a test rider in latest so familiarity this time around should help in getting his first win at the meet
  2. #7 – Mama Dee (3-1): Logical choice as she owns career best turf number among these gals but has failed as Post Time favorite in past four outings; looks to be a play against OR underneath in exotics 
  3. #8 – Trois Ponts (9-2): MD-bred 3-year-old with a French name (translates to “three bridges”) whose sire is German-bred, grandsire was bred in Ireland, her trainer is Chilean and pilot is Puerto Rican… truly an international team; exits her surprising maiden score at 14-1 while her rider (A. Cintron) picks her v. #4 and 7 who he also rode in their previous starts
    With the race coming OFF the TURF consider these… #3 – Tiz a Sharpie and #12 – Miss Patriot

Race 2 

  1. #4 – Joyful Noise (7-2): Just 3 for 37 lifetime but seems to have turned a corner, consistently in the mix and earning minor shares versus similar; stretch out to 7 panels in third race after layoff could prove to be a winning spot  
  2. #2 – Swirrlie Shirlie (5-2): 4-time winner faces 8 others, 7 who have only gotten to Winners Circle on three occasions; the “or” condition (non-winner since April 17th) fits her like a glove as her last win came on April 14th            
  3. #7 – Queena Esther (9-2): This 8-time winning, 6-year-old mare calls Prx home but makes her way around all the Mid-Atlantic tracks; Lrl hasn’t been kind to her (3:0-0-0) though; is just 1 fo 2 (#1 is the other) to have won at this distance; seems to prefer an off track     

Race 3 

  1. #4 – Hunting Season (2-1): *** BEST BET *** A bridesmaid in her last two efforts here at Lrl, the second and third of her career; a $575k Kee yearling purchase by Pioneerof the Nile needs to keep moving forward to justify that price for trainer “Shug” McGaughey  
  2. #6 – Vow to Dance (15-1): Was very chilly (28-1) in debut going 6 furlongs, had a rough start but showed some late interest while well behind the winner who came back to run a nice second in allowance company; after that education and stretching out to one mile, she could light-up the toteboard           
  3. #3 – Twirling Star (9-5): Adds blinkers in third career start which were likely on when firing a bullet in the A.M. at Palm Meadows a few weeks after her second place finish at GP as Post Time favorite    

Race 4 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #4 – Scatnap (4-1):  Scat Daddy mare has been equally successful on dirt as on turf; trainer J. Cibelli has placed her in events in which she has figured based on odds of 4-1 or less in last 5 efforts since being claimed for $16k  
  2. #8 – Mahkato (7-2): Keeps plugging away in these first-level allowance events; game try in latest when first-time racing on Lasix; second time often provides improved efforts   
  3. #6 – Shoobiedoobydoo (6-1): Invader from Prx is trainer J, Servis only entry on the Lrl card and jock F. Pennington (25% w/ Servis the past year) feels it’s worth the trip down I-95; been away nearly 100 days but likes Lrl turf (2:0-1-1)
    With the race coming OFF the TURF consider using… #2 – Mortal Storm (20-1) who is now a gate-to-wire threat

Race 5 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #2 – Pepper Sprout (6-1): Late blooming 4-year-old filly has two wins from three starts with a runner-up effort in only try on Lrl turf in June; can boast best career turf Brisnet number (89) among those in this event, which she earned twice      
  2. #1/1A – Madame Milan/Gardenista (4-1): Madame is the elder, more accomplished of this Lael Stables duo who faced much tougher at KD last month; stablemate needs someone to scratch to draw in off AE; wasn’t up to the G3 VA Oaks challenge (8th by 8) but had been part of Trifecta in all six (6) previoius turf starts (7:1-2-3)        
  3. #11 – Diamond Play (5-2): Mth-based runner seeking third consecutive win has a runner-up finish in lone Lrl turf which came four years ago in a sprint; trainer A. Margotta, Jr. try’s for 9th time to get a win at Lrl this year; T. McCarthy picks up the mount, just his second for trainer in the past year, the first one was a win on prohibitive favorite
    With the race coming OFF the TURF consider using… #5 – Victim of Love (12-1), #3 – Victory Rally (3-1), #7 – So Innocent (10-1)

Race 6 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #2 – Minster’s Strike (6-5): Drew a weak group of geldings here as his Mornign Line odds suggest; he’s a proven winner at this level and the next; added distance shouldn’t be an issue, having a runner-up effort earning career best Brisnet turf number (90) in only previous try traveling 10 furlongs    
  2. #9 – Baltic Art (6-1): Second start after trainer N. Morris’ $16k claim who also saddles #5 (Kikinboy 15-1); made up ground late to get SHOW purse in first start v. $10k open claimers on Med turf which could indicate this 6-year-old is returning to old/better form   
  3.  #3 – Silver Romeo (20-1): Ended a 13-month layoff with what appears to be a dull effort sprinting in this same open condition but this gray isn’t a sprinter and last victory came going two turns following a sprint after a short layoff
    With race coming OFF the TURF consider using… #8 – Sir Brahms (7-2), and #1 – Monkey Medal (12-1)

 Race 7 

  1. #4 – Captain Trips (6-1): $$$ Longshot Play $$$ Yep, know what you’re thinkin’, “You must be trippin’?!'” touting this 1 for 36 6-year-old; the encouraging news is he’s been improving and that lone win came at this distance which he’s tested only nine times thus far    
  2. #3 – Baravelli (9-2): Got first and only win at The Big T going 4 furlongs over a next out winner; was a rank outsider in both tries versus winners which came on turf at $16k level; comes back to earth and a spot more conducive to get second trip to Winners Circle    
  3. #6 – Sunni Blaze (3-1): High percentage (24%), Del-based trainer A. Castellano ships in with 3-year-old who makes ninth start, first outside of Del; game runner has never embarrassed himself while facing $6,250n2L which is comparable to this Lrl event

Race 8 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #5 – Irishtown (8-5): Turf sprinter has had close calls in each of his four efforts going 5-5 1/2 furlongs, twice on dirt and most recently twice on turf; holds the speed rating edge over foes who have already tested the turf; a repeat of latest earns diploma today 
  2. #8 – Gone Home (8-1): Cut back to sprint from a pair of one mile turf starts seems to be the right move as this gray gelding showed early speed v. MSW foes in latest then weakened in the final furlongs, a recipe for today’s distance            
  3. #7 – Manley Cross (20-1): Second start with Lasix in third career start and first on turf for this Bandbox colt who spends the mornings on the Fai Tapeta track and has a couple bullet works to show for it
    If race comes OFF the TURF consider these… #3 – Once in a Lifetime (6-1) and #6 – Can Do Too (5-1)

Race 9

  1. #7 – Quality Matters (5-2): Hot riding apprentice J. Correa gets reunited with this gelding as these two teamed up for maiden win two back; comes off turf try v. $16kN2L at Cnl in late August, finally resurfaces at Lrl bottom level in what seems to be a premature drop considering competitiveness versus higher level maidens   
  2. #5 – Road to Oz (2-1): Seems to be taking a detour to the Winners Circle since claimed five races back for $16k by owner/trainer K. Magee, one race after breaking maiden; patience must be wearing thin as he takes multi-level drop to bottom, a winning move 35% of the time for the Magee barn 
  3. #8 – Top Hat Warrior (5-2): Speedy colt has trouble carrying it the entire trip and will be further tested as a couple foes should pressure him early; third race after layoff but continues to drop in class     

Race 10

  1. #2 – Takemetodinner (4-1): Appears to be the speed of the cheap speed based on 4 furlong split from latest compared to foes who have shown early foot; counting on 5 lb. bug for a smart ride   
  2. #6 – Defend the Bay (12-1): Jock switch might make the difference as this 3-year-old tired in first try v. winners and going two turns; might have been an attempt to build  stamina; cut back to sprint is the right move 
  3. #7 – Notionality (2-1): This gelding is always well backed but has failed 3 of 4 times when sent off as the favorite, which is likely the case here; might have to take a stand against this one for the top prize