The GQ Approach – Laurel September 22

by | Sep 22, 2019 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing

Photo by Dottie Miller.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel for the live fall racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today’s carryovers

  • Rainbow Pick 6: $13,267
  • Super High 5: $17,426
  • Late Pick 5: none

Multi-race wagers

  • Race 1 – $2 Double  3, 8 w/ 3, 12 ($8)
  • Race 6 – 50 cent Pick-5 1, 5 w/ 7 w/ 4, 5, 6 w/ 1, 4, 7 w/ 3, 6, 11 ($27)
  • Race 9 – $2 Double 1, 4 w/ 3, 6, 11 ($12)

Best Bet of the Day

  • Race 5: #1 – Lemon Zip (9-5)

Longshot Play of the Day

  • Race 4: #12 – Sky D (10-1)

 Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Sunny; highs in the 80s
  • Scheduled turf races: 1st, 2nd, 4th, 5th, 8th, 10th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST / Turf – FIRM

First Race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1 is ON THE TURF

  1. #3 – Electro (10-1): Not a bad effort for first time running in open company on yielding turf when 4th by less than 2-lengths to the winner (#4 in here) that saw runner-up come back to win; look for continued improvement from this C. Gonzalez trainee 
  2. #8 – Minister’s Strike (3-1): Two race win streak ended when beaten favorite in latest at Colonial, only good enough to get SHOW purse in $16k Starter; been a nice claim for trainer J. Ness who has gotten this gelding to Winners Circle in 4 of 7 starts but is just 3:0-1-0 on Lrl lawn          
  3. #2 – Chocolate Ride (7-2): 9-year-old dusted off the cob-webs two weeks ago at Colonial in first start since last November; no late rally then but can you blame him? Look for an imroved effort here in second start after layoff

Race 2 is ON THE TURF

  1. #3 – Teasing Patience (6-1): GB-bred first-time starter by turf sprinter Kodiac hails from the always dangerous C. Lynch barn (21% with firsters) whose win percentage goes up to 30% when runners debut for a tag; suddenly this jock/trainer combo is unbeatable (4 for 4 the past year) 
  2. #12 – Thedevilmademedoit (9-2): Drops from the $40k maiden claimer after three starts at that level to start career, the last two sent off as favorite; change in surface (dirt-to-turf) didn’t help but sticks to it and gets T. McCarthy back in the irons       
  3. #5 – Lady Fox (5-1): Earned a decent 74 Brisnet turf number in debut at Colonial 23 days ago in restricted MSW on turf when showed late interest sprinting; private purchase after that effort, switches to trainer M. Stidham and gets an extra sixteenth today; still no Lasix           

Race 3 

  1. #7 – Sybil’s Prophecy (9-2): MD-bred first-time starter by Nicanor whose offspring have been far from world-beaters, on dirt or turf; maybe this gal will get running ability from dam side (Not for Love); owner/breeder might be looking for the bonus and traier G. Capuano is 26% with maiden claimers
  2. #8 – Lunetta (12-1): Adds blinkers for eighth career outing as she attempts to improve on her career best fifth-place finish at Timonium in latest when she was loose pre-race         
  3. #1 – Hide (8-1): Only runner in here getting class relief… and it’s much needed as she’s lost all three career outings by double-digit lengths; has early speed and might be able to discourage her foes and hang on late    

Race 4 is ON THE TURF

  1. #12 – Sky D (10-1): $$$ Longshot Play $$$ Plenty of early speed in this contest which bodes well for this off-the-pace runner; caught a snails pace at Mth three weeks ago in first try against winners; owns best turf Brisnet number (85) of this bunch which he earned two back when breaking maiden here
  2. #6 – Animal Kingston (7-2): Dances every dance on turf (12;1-5-3) just has a hard time getting to the wire first; speed figures have been ascending and has two runner-up efforts in as many tries at this $16kN2L condition   
  3. #4 – I’ve Gotta Plan (6-1): An ugly 1 for 22 record and that one win came on an off track, not turf but gets reunited with V. Rosales; gets best shot at win #2 as the one mile seems to be the furthest he wants to go       

Race 5 is ON THE TURF

  1. #1 – Lemon Zip (9-5): *** BEST BET ***  Likes this on-and-one-half mile distance (2:1-1-0) while only half of his foes today have never tried it and the other half have yet to win goig this far; exits runner-up effort in minor stakes on Mth grass at this distance    
  2. #10 – Posterity (4-1): Finished 7-lengths behind top pick in lone effort at the distance; since then has improved by being part of trifecta (4:1-2-1)     
  3. #7 – Elementary (12-1): Deep Closer will need pace help but he’s always making a run late; first-time going this far so the question is… will it help or will he hang late? This Capper believes it will help       

Race 6 

  1. #5 – Finbar (9-2): Lone runner in here that has been facing open claimers while his competitors been struggling in restricted company; this is huge and offers a square price as a possible single for horizon wagers   
  2. #1/1A – Army Grey/Cause He’s Western (4-1): This A. Eubans entry is a nice mix of early speed (#1A) and off-the-pace (#1) even though the latter hasn’t visited the Winners Circle in 11 tries this year; hence, his 7-year-old stablemate is the likely one to carry the load in gate-to-wire fashion
  3.  #6 – Drive At Nite (6-1): Was very chilly on the board (33-1) in first start after 2-month layoff at this level; was rank and showed a bit of late run or was it just passing faders? Like that H. Karamanos regains the mount       

 Race 7 

  1. #7 – Tiz No Bluff (2-1): Game runner (16;2-5-5) from trainer M. Nevin for only entry on the Sunday card; has plenty of short layoffs which is conerning and on the drop to lowest level of 16 race career   
  2. #2 – Dedicated (6-1): Draw a line through latest turf try as he’s showed no interest on the grass on both such starts; blew away three foes two back in non-winnner of two lifetime at Mth; jock F. Peltroche takes the mount for trainer M. Sandoval    
  3. #3 – Grand Oasis (9-2): Makes fourth start after brief layoff at fourth different venue though two-time winner seems to prefer Lrl dirt oval (4:1-1-1); jock/trainer combo have been winning at a 25% clip the past year    

Race 8 is ON THE TURF

  1. #6 – High Noon Rider (8-5): Tough to pick against this 7-year-old gelding but has disappointed in 3 of 5 tries when sent of as the betting choice; beat lesser in latest and will test endurance going further (1 1/2 miles) than ever though breeding indicates it should not be an issue         
  2. #5 – Decisive Triumph (6-1): Blinkers go back on after a dull effort over the hurdles at Mth; has the back class to compete against these fellows; look for D. Centeno to get in a good stalking position and run on late        
  3. #4 – Redeemed Gentleman (12-1): Will test stamina today going this distance for first time; got up late against better foes when going 1 3/16 miles on Colonial turf; need to throw out latest     

Race 9

  1. #1 – Jumping Michelle (3-1): Failed as Post Time favorite in last two outings; stretch duel in latest took too much out of her to get the 7 furlongs; lone win came on an off track so let’s hope a rail trip and stretch out to one mile helps break her of Seconditis (13;1-5-1)      
  2. #4 – Artful Splatter (5-1): First start off trainer K. Magee $16k claim when this gray gal missed by a neck; the waters get deeper here but trust trainer has her ready for top effort as he wins at a 19% clip first race after claim       
  3. #7 – Jump for Sally (5-1): Graduated in latest against MSW fillies at The Big T but runner-up failed to win in next outings v. $25kMCL at Lrl when 5-2; added distance might be what the doctor ordered based on bloodlines (by Jump Start out of a Not for Love mare)    

Race 10 is ON THE TURF

  1. #6 – Bold Trek (6-1): On paper the weaker of the two uncoupled “Ham” Smith runners (#3 is the other) while jock V. Carrasco who was on the other in last start picks this one. Hmmm! Does take appropriate drop from $40kMCL after showing brief speed then giving way late        
  2. #11 – Power Back (12-1): Second start with blinkers often results in positive ROI; makes turf debut after 2-month vacation and drops from $40kMCL           
  3. #3 – Leading Man (7-2): Nice rally between rivals sprinting on Colonial turf course last month at this level; gets fifth different jock in fifth career start