The GQ Approach – Timonium September 2

by | Sep 2, 2019 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing | 0 comments

Photo by The Racing Biz.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Timonium for the Maryland State Fair racing meet, Post Time 1:05pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today’s carryovers

  • Rainbow Pick 6: none
  • Super High 5: none
  • Late Pick 5: none

Multi-race wagers

  • Race 1 – $2 Double  4, 5, 6 w/ 2, 7 ($12)
  • Race 5 – 50 cent Pick-5 2, 4, 5 w/ 4, 5 w/ 4 w/ 1, 3, 7 w/ 5, 7, 8 ($18)
  • Race 8 – $2 Double 1, 3 w/ 2, 5, 7, 8 ($16)

Best Bet of the Day

  • Race 3: #2 – Higher Purpose (5-2)

Longshot Play of the Day

  • Race 8: #3 – Forfiftyfiverocket (12-1)

 Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Cloudy; highs in the 80s
  • Scheduled turf races: No turf at The Big T
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST

First Race Post Time 1:05pm EDT

Race 1 

  1. #5 – Papacho (5-1): A disappointing third as Post Time favorite here 9 days ago & claimed by current leading trainer wheels right back to makes amends; pay back v. #6 who won
  2. #4 – Princetonian (15-1): Exits the synthetic surface at Preque Isle (Erie, PA); been a while since he raced on dirt but his record proves he can handle it (11:2-1-2); Closing style fits
  3. #6 – Field Advantage (2-1): Gate-to-wire winner over this oval which proved to be speed favoring last week; has the back class to repeat

Race 2 

  1. #2 – I Came to Party (5-2): Hunch Play for Fair goers? Has been away since March, shows just one work but has faced better
  2. #7 – Ackeret (9-5): Blow the dust off this 7-year-old who last raced 23-months ago! 1 for 1 at Tim and shows 5 recent works
  3. #5 – Cobh (8-1): Might be good enough against this group to be in mix in deep stretch for minor share if not win at a price

Race 3

  1. #2 – Higher Purpose (5-2): * BEST BET * No shame in being runner-up to a monster 4-furlong specialist in latest here; should handle these by pouncing on speedy foes late
  2. #1– Poplar Avenue (9-5): Speed from the rail is only way to win; will be tested early, he could weaken approaching wire
  3. #8 – Wizards of Odds (8-1): Hope jock A. Marin gives smart ride, doesn’t send and saves his best running til in the stretch
Race 4

  1. #1/1A – Cold Sweat/Pardon the Pun (5-1): Like the #1 based on early speed and held his own against winners; a positive test out of maiden win DQ’d him, hence back in maiden ranks; if #1A runs you get him too, it’s a 2-for-1 proposition
  2. #6 – Dreaming of Love (1-1): Don’t we all? Twice failed as favorite settling for runner-up spot; latest came 7 days ago
  3. #2 – Native Courage (8-1): First-time starter by Bourbon Courage out of a mare who was quick and a stakes winner; impressive works, especially on Aug. 30 (3 furlongs 34 4/5)

Race 5 

  1. #4 – Vineyard (7-2): Should get the lead today rather easily to go gate-to-wire; broke his maiden here last year by 8+ lengths
  2. #2 – Nick Papagiorgio (9-2): First start after $16k claim nearly 3-months ago; this Capper wrestled with the idea to use or toss him
  3. #5 – Lielielie (3-1): 1 of 2 entered by top MD trainer Claudio Gonzalez; intrigued that MD Top 5 jock J. Toledo has first mount last day of meet; won at CT two back, same scenario

Race 6 

  1. #5 – Moti (7-2): Field is filled w/ early speed which bodes well for his off-the-pace style; trainer pushing all the right buttons
  2. #4 – Mice and Men (7-2): Speed figures have been climbing; comes off a personal best when earning diploma on Lrl dirt
  3. #3 – Rip Rap Riley (15-1): Considered weaker half of 2 in here for trainer D. Capuano (#4 is other); logical spot 1st off claim
 Race 7 

  1. #4 – Twirling Owen (4-5): Quickest from the gate in all starts at Lrl, CD and Bel; took the Summer off to build stamina? 
  2. #3 – Landing Zone (10-1): Broke maiden on step up and first race after trainer L. Albert claim; a diamond in the rough?
  3. #6 – Tote Board (12-1): Steps up after blew the horseshoes off her $16kMCL foes here 8 days ago; beat SHOW finisher by 6+ lengths and that one came back yesterday to win easily

Race 8 

  1. #3 – Forfiftyfiverocket (12-1): $ LONGSHOT $ Latest runner-up effort was huge after stumble exiting the gate, rushed up early, slightly checked on turn, then ran on willingly in the stretch; could light up the toteboard with a clean trip here
  2. #1 – Wicked T (12-1): Might be backing the wrong J. O’Dwyer runner (#4 is other) but this gal should handle first try on dirt; big effort in latest after getting loose prior to race
  3. #7 – Analyze Your Risk (3-1): The Toddster ships from NY to The Big T?! No warm & fuzzy feeling as this colt is available for the $50k tag; last raced Jun. 28 but shows 5 works since

Race 9 

  1. #5 – Dixie’s Fascinator (6-1): Lone dirt try wasn’t horrible v. better; needs pace help and should get it for strong late run
  2. #7 – Perfectlyintune (2-1): Step slow from the gate last week cost her; jock switch to one who will get her to the front early
  3. #8 – Broadway Trooper (15-1): Would be nice to close out this meet with a big price; turf-to-dirt angle and has shown early speed in those past dirt tries; could happen on cut back