The GQ Approach – Timonium September 1

by | Sep 1, 2019 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing | 0 comments

Photo by The Racing Biz.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Timonium for the Maryland State Fair racing meet, Post Time 1:05pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today’s carryovers

  • Rainbow Pick 6: $1,047.52
  • Super High 5: none
  • Late Pick 5: none

Multi-race wagers

  • Race 1 – $2 Double  3, 4 w/ 1, 4 ($8)
  • Race 4 – 50 cent Pick-5 1, 6, 7 w/ 3, 6, 7 w/ 6, 7 w/ 1 w/ 6, 7 ($18)
  • Race 7 – $2 Double 1, 4 w/ 6, 7 ($8)

Best Bet of the Day

  • Race 7: #1 – Victory Rally (5-2)

Longshot Play of the Day

  • Race 4: #7 – Brady to Gronk (5-1)

 Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Sunny; highs in the 80s
  • Scheduled turf races: No turf at The Big T
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST

First Race Post Time 1:05pm EDT

Race 1 

  1. #3 – Whimsical Delight (2-1): Makes first start of the year and for trainer J. Ness (23% in this scenario); shows four nice workouts, two bullets leading up to this spot  
  2. #4 – Angel by the Sea (8-5): Got SHOW purse at Del versus similar gals; needs the lead to win as that’s been the winning formula in these 4 furlong contests at The Big T meet so far
  3. #6 – Manhattan Lady (15-1): Need to ignore her last two outings on turf; has shown brief speed going longer; jock’s lone mount and is just one behind leader for Riding title

Race 2 

  1. #4 – Rapidashqueen (5-2): Second start with blinkers often results in positive ROI; was runner-up here on Opening Day as she chased a good one; fast track today makes the difference                
  2. #1 – Magical Anna (2-1): Trainer C. Lynch has a barn filled with talented 2-year-olds; this one is quick and gets go-to rider J.D. Acosta hoping third career start is a charm  
  3. #5 – Dressedtothenines (9-2): First-time starter by Super Ninety Nine out of a Stormy Atlantic mare has an excellent work pattern ending with a 5 furlong bullet

Race 3

  1. #2 – Egregious (5-2): Many may use this adjective to describe my picks from yesterday, but today is another day; this fella’s been absent from the races for 2-months but has two bullet works; drops in class seeking diploma
  2. #1 – Cool Man Cletus (9-5): Was a nose away from earning first victory a year ago on this oval; 8 races later he still seeks that elusive Winners Circle photo; a classic case of Seconditis
  3. #4 – Kukulkan (8-5): 0 for 21 in his career but has best shot yet to graduate as he’s fastest from the gate, lacks stamina

Race 4

  1. #7 – Brady to Gronk (5-1): $ LONGSHOT $ Pats fans will back this first-timer; nice final gate work indicates she’ll be quick; dam has produced 6 runners, all winners
  2. #6 – Emo (9-5): Not to be confused w/ Limu the Emu; trainer M. Pino ships in from Prx who wins at 45% clip 2nd time Lasix
  3. #1 – Debraw (6-1): First-time starter by Oxbow out of a Smart Strike mare, this is her first runner sent out by H. McMahon who had 3 winners on yesterday’s card

Race 5 

  1. #3 – Zitarrosa (9-5): Speed figs have been climbing while moving from turf to dirt and back; 2 wins from 3 starts on dirt          
  2. #7 – Relentless Lion (3-1): Class dropper should get pace help to assist with his typical late run through the stretch      
  3. #6 – Wilko’s Goldeneye (12-1): Can boast best career speed figure of this group along w/ most starts (50); distance suits

Race 6 

  1. #6 – Hashtag Selfie (5-2): Went gate-to-wire in first start after trainer K. Magee claim; been a win-machine (10 for 33)
  2. #7 – Lonely Drifter (3-1): Was beaten favorite when trying to win 8th consecutive race; has ability to start a new win streak     
  3. #1 – Rein Supreme (7-2): Earned career best speed figure in latest effort, a win at Lrl; jock/trainer win at a 28% clip 
 Race 7 

  1. #1 – Victory Rally (5-2): * BEST BET * Rare entry at Tim by trainer M. Matz; this one has been facing much tougher than these while failing to hit the board
  2. #4 – Riva Belle (9-2): Shipper from Penn National has been an ATM this year (10:2-3-4) and has never been off-the-board (9:3-3-3) at today’s distance (1 1/16 miles)
  3. #3 – Moon Virginia (3-1): Off form of late so a drop in class might help right the ship; prefers moisture on the track but still has back class to get the job done 

Race 8 

  1. #7 – Giant Viking (8-5): Was all out in The Big T mud last weekend when coming up a neck short of first win; the winner came back yesterday to run a respectable third in first start against winners
  2. #6 – Big Rinne (2-1): Scratched from easier event on Saturday so connections must be pretty confident this gelding is sitting on a big race; if he improves slightly, he’ll earn first win
  3. #3 – Voodoo Valley (5-2): Gave up lead in deep stretch in latest effort when 16-1, missing paydirt by a head; has shown improvement in past three races