The GQ Approach – Timonium August 30

by | Aug 30, 2019 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing | 0 comments

Photo by The Racing Biz.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Timonium for the Maryland State Fair racing meet, Post Time 1:05pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today’s carryovers

  • Rainbow Pick 6: $588.69
  • Super High 5: none
  • Late Pick 5: none

Multi-race wagers

  • Race 1 – $2 DOUBLE  1, 6 w/ 1, 4 ($8)
  • Race 5 – 50 cent Pick-5 1, 2, 5 w/ 2, 3, 4 w/ 7, 8 w/ 2, 4 w/ 7 ($18)
  • Race 8 – $2 Double 2, 4 w/ 2, 7 ($8)

Best Bet of the Day

  • Race 2: #4 – Louise (7-2)

Longshot Play of the Day

  • Race 5: #2 – Alphabetting (6-1)

 Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Sunny; highs in the 80s
  • Scheduled turf races: No turf at The Big T
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST

First Race Post Time 1:05pm EDT

Race 1 

  1. #6 – Put Up R Shut Up (2-1): Lost debut by 20-lengths but v. elite foes at Sar in very fast time; new owner, adds Lasix  
  2. #1 – Kim’s Pet (5-2): Beaten favorite in latest by a neck earning best speed fig; 3rd start after layoff is a winner 24% of the time for trainer L. Albert
  3. #2 – Venetian Drive (3-1): Been on the shelf since late May when stumbled at the start yet still showed early speed

Race 2 

  1. #4 – Louise (7-2): * BEST BET * Gets class relief after two double-digit losses; last 3 wins came at this level; jock/trainer are 1 for 3 in ‘19
  2. #1 – Emelina (5-1): Stretches out to better distance for her after hampered here last weekend in slop v. more early speed than she’ll face today; has hit-the-board in all 3 tries at Big T
  3. #7 – Emma’sdiamonddiva (3-1): Beat non-winners of 4 races here last week; was a bridesmaid to top pick three races back

Race 3

  1. #2 – Floating Rate (3-1): Exits turf try where she was in over her head; trainer Brooks wins at a 26% clip on similar drops
  2. #4 – Ask Contrition (3-1): Same connections as in 1st race who brought a badly beaten runner at Sar to face weak foes
  3. #3 – Clover Bottom (5-2): 6 races in ’19, all on turf; had trouble in career debut v. much better in lone fast track start

Race 4

  1. #2 – Janelle Dreams (4-5): Won on turf 7 days ago; makes 4th start this month; class dropper is only entry on the card for trainer K. Magee who is 7 for 13 when dropping off a win    
  2. #4 – Dah Philly (4-1): Second race w/ blinkers often result in positive ROI; dull turf try v. older, better gals is forgivable  
  3. #6 – Swirlie Shirley (3-1): 3-yr-old hasn’t been close in last 5 when facing elders as is the case here BUT is back w/ trainer J. Salzman, Jr. who had success with her previously

Race 5 

  1. #2 – Alphabetting (6-1): $ LONGSHOT $ Had company early in latest last weekend here and couldn’t finish the deal in slop v. a level high; should get the lead today rather easily to go gate-to-wire 
  2. #1 – Sweet Home Dixie (2-1): Just missed in latest v. similar, cuts back 3/16th of a mile, adds blinkers; speed figs have been climbing
  3. #5 – Two Step Sis (5-2): A Stewards Scratch from tougher spot last Friday; game in first try v. winners, same effort today gets the “W”

Race 6 

  1. #3 – Top Hat Treason (7-2): Got an education in debut when sent off 5-2 second choice but could only manage SHOW money
  2. #2 – Pataz (5-1): Unruly pre-race in debut on turf, running in mid-pack, the runner-up came back to win easy on Sunday; trainer H. Smith calls on hot riding apprentice J. Correa to get the job done   
  3. #4 – Mine to Hold (2-1): Makes third start, first on natural dirt following off-the-pace finishes to be third then second on the Lrl grass
 Race 7  

  1. #7 – Going to the Lead (6-1): Name describes how he won debut; trainer underestimated this ones ability to compete; was scratched out of two tougher races last week to go here
  2. #8 – Tattered (5-2): Beaten short-priced favorite in latest when gave up lead late; jock J. Pimentel won the stakes here last Saturday in only other mount so far for The Big T meet
  3. #3 – Kosher Kontract (2-1): Adds blinkers after experiment to remove them didn’t go well in latest; drops one class level

Race 8 

  1. #4 – Marvelous Martina (2-1): Will need pace help to make her typical late run; toss last as she had rough trip when fav.
  2. #2 – Bruja Bug (10-1): Honest running filly has hit-the-board in 12 of 14 starts; was third as a maiden over this oval in ‘18 
  3. #5 – Turkmenistan (3-1): Beat similar a few weeks ago when equipped w/ blinkers; trainer A. Farrior is on fire, winning with 5 of the 6 runners entered so far at The Big T meet

 Race 9 

  1. #7 – My Lily Rose (9-5): Appears to be the best of a poor lot and should get an easy lead as others lack early foot; tired in last outing when a step slow at the start then used up early
  2. #2 – Three to Get Ready (8-5): Connections showing no patience by dropping this filly in class to third bottom level in as many starts; her 2 speed figs are tops among today’s foes
  3. #6 – Lovely Girl (5-1): Continues to improve since moving to trainer D. Worton barn who has done well the past few years at The Big T (15:6-3-2)