The GQ Approach – Timonium August 25

by | Aug 25, 2019 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing | 0 comments

Photo by The Racing Biz.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Timonium for the Maryland State Fair racing meet, Post Time 1:05pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today’s carryovers

  • Rainbow Pick 6: none
  • Super High 5: $229
  • Late Pick 5: none

Multi-race wagers

  • Race 1 – $2 DOUBLE  3, 4, 6 w/ 4, 5 ($12)
  • Race 5 – 50 cent Pick-5 2, 3, 5 w/ 1, 3, 6 w/ 4 w/ 2, 3 w/ 3, 5, 8 ($27)
  • Race 8 – $2 Double 2, 3 w/ 3, 5, 8 ($12)

Best Bet of the Day

  • Race 8: #3 – Pumpkin Star (9-5)

Longshot Play of the Day

  • Race 6: #1 – Detroit Cowboy (6-1)

 Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Sunny; highs in the 70s
  • Scheduled turf races: No turf at The Big T
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST

First Race Post Time 1:05pm EDT

Race 1 

  1. #3 – Big Bruiser (9-5): This maiden took on winners ($5kN2L) in latest, finishing third as the favorite; fading in the stretch
  2. #6 – Wille the Whale (5-2): Works in the A.M. like a gazelle but would stop on a dime in races; the ultimate equipment change (gelded after last race) might be the cure for that
  3. #4 – Harmony Cat (10-1): Precipitous class drop from $40kMCL after dull debut at Pim in May served as a reality check

Race 2 

  1. #4 – Forty Acres (8-5): Fits “non-winner since” race condition by 8 days; big class drop & last raced 3-months ago; nice works
  2. #5 – Chinquapin (2-1): Exits turf try at Del v. open company; should get early lead, question is can he keep it for one mile?
  3. #2 – Blessed At Mass (4-1): Hunch Play for Sunday races at the Fair? Draw a line thru off track races and he’s always ITM 

Race 3

  1. #4 – Out of Bullets (7-2): First-time starter by Flat Out fired two bullet works albeit going just 3f but from the gate
  2. #1 – Dreaming of Love (4-5): Refuse to be Capt. Obvious by making this one top pick; jock is 0-fer The Big T first two days
  3. #2 – Wicked Son (9-2): Trainer having a rough year but this gelded son of Wicked Strong displays a nice workout pattern 

Race 4

  1. #6 – Nancysaidso (7-5): Ships in from Mth where she’s been a short-priced favorite in last four, winning once; gets class relief while have huge edge in speed figs over foes in here
  2. #1 – Aussie Gold (15-1): CT-based runner been away since Apr. 18; bullet work 2 days ago indicates she’s chomping at the bit and fit to race again; has done well off the bench
  3. #3 – Call Me Jelly Roll (6-5): Faced a very weak group of gals when winning third straight; was off the board here last year

Race 5 

  1. #3 – Cookie Crisp (9-5): Only runner in this contest that faced open claimers in most recent outing… and was runner-up; not thrilled about jock choice after regular rider (E. Flores) decided not to come down from Pen to ride  
  2. #2 – Elusive Hero (4-5): Sent off as Post Time favorite in last four, winning last two; first start for new barn after claim hoping he returns to old, better form      
  3. #5 – Army Grey (6-1): Dull effort finishing 7-lengths behind #2 in latest; jock switch to hot riding apprentice V. Rosales a plus

Race 6 

  1. #1 – Detroit Cowboy (6-1): $ LONGSHOT $ Closer gets plenty of early speed to catch late and extra real estate to do so but it is asking a lot from one that’s just 2 for 40 lifetime
  2. #5 – Be Back (5-1): Another who hasn’t found the Winners Circle often (2 for 39) BUT with 16 runner-up efforts makes him a threat at this level
  3. #6 – Flat Out Mine (9-5): Destroyed $5kN2L in gate-to-wire fashion; waters get deeper here and he’ll have plenty of company early on this time

 Race 7  

  1. #4 – My Chesa Charm (1-1): Easily won here last year at this distance; been facing much better while getting to Winners Circle; jock K. Davis needs to earn $$$ for a wedding dress            
  2. #3 – Hanalei Sunset (15-1): Beware of trainer C. Frock runners at big prices; they tend to shine at The Big T  
  3. #6 – Unique Humor (2-1): Won two races back traveling this distance but steps into open company for first time in career

Race 8 

  1. #3 – Pumpkin Star (9-5): * BEST BET * Perfect rider for this one as J.D. Acosta is a master at getting his mounts with speed on the lead, saving enough in the tank to hold off foes; has twice as many wins at this distance than all the others
  2. #2 – Regal Quality (2-1): Nice career record (15:3-6-0) but this 1 1/16 mile might be a bit too far (2:0-1-0)                
  3. #4 – Runabout (7-2): Speed figures have been improving in last three starts; has hit the board in every race at this level

 Race 9 

  1. #8 – Side Car (8-5): Speed of the speed, adds blinkers but can we trust a 3-time beaten favorite? Jock/trainer combo have been winning at a 44% clip over the past year     
  2. #5 – Victory Given (4-1): Second start with blinkers often results in positive ROI; returns to natural dirt and drops
  3. #3 – Once in a Lifetime (3-1): Failed as Post Time favorite in debut but made a nice late run to lose by just 2-lengths yet drops a level for better chance at earning diploma today