The GQ Approach – Timonium August 24

by | Aug 24, 2019 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing

Timonium

Photo by The Racing Biz.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Timonium for the Maryland State Fair racing meet, Post Time 1:05pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today’s carryovers

  • Rainbow Pick 6: none
  • Super High 5: none
  • Late Pick 5: none

Multi-race wagers

  • Race 1 – $2 DOUBLE  2, 4 w/ 2, 5, 7 ($12)
  • Race 5 – 50 cent Pick-5 1, 3, 7 w/ 3, 6 w/ 7, 8 w/ 1, 4 w/ 4, 6, 8 ($36)
  • Race 8 – $2 Double 1, 6 w/ 4, 6, 8 ($12)

Best Bet of the Day

  • Race 4: #7 – Always Talking (9-5)

Longshot Play of the Day

  • Race 9: #4 – Above It All (8-1)

 Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Sunny; highs in the 80s
  • Scheduled turf races: No turf at The Big T
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST

First Race Post Time 1:05pm EDT

Race 1 

  1. #4 – Papacho (9-5): Trainer H. McMahon seems to be loaded with runners who fit the Tim Condition Book; runner-up to next out winner
  2. #2 – Field Advantage (3-1): Takes appropriate multi-level class drop and cuts back to more manage distance to be a threat to win 
  3. #3 – Moneymeister (2-1): An all-female rider Trifecta?! J. Miller w/ her only mount fits this gelding like a glove; goes for third straight win

Race 2 

  1. #2 – Arrivederci (9-5): Could it be a K. Davis riding Double? Recently engaged rider earning $$$ for wedding dress; won last outing when in for $5k 
  2. #5 – Free to Trump (8-5): Runner-up in latest two BUT those were v. non-winners of 4 lifetime; this contest is non-winners of 5
  3. #7 – A True Gentleman (4-1): Strong-minded gelding needs to save energy for the race, not use it up in Post Parade; off the pace threat

Race 3 

  1. #3 – Gottaflathaveher (7-2): One of two NOT stepping up in class; figuring she’ll take another step forward under trainer J. O’Dwyer care
  2. #4 – Popeye’s Oyl (20-1): Lost debut by 20-lengths BUT the fractions were very quick compared her foes races; trainer N. Heil is overdue for a win
  3. #1 – Live Aid (4-1): Often a horse will win because of a change, well this one changes to a hot jock, venue and adds blinkers
Race 4

  1. #7 – Always Talking (9-5): * BEST BET * Failed as PT favorite due to being shuffled back; needs lead to Win
  2. #4 – Brady to Gronk (4-1): Patriots fans will surely back this first-timer; nice final gate work indicates she’ll be quick
  3. #8 – Tote Board (20-1): NY-bred wasn’t ready for debut at Bel v. better in May; jock A. Cortez can get runners to the front

Race 5 

  1. #3 – Takemetodinner (5-2): CT-based runner hasn’t beaten a rival in last two starts v. much tougher; can’t ignore impressive debut win
  2. #7 – Fire Marshal (7-2): First start after A. Farrior $5k claim, the fourth different barn this gelding as called home after just 7 starts
  3. #1 – Shanghai Noon (9-2): Makes 9th career start but first on dirt; A.M. works this winter indicate he can handle it; gets class relief

Race 6 

  1. #3 – Corporate Raider (5-2): A stalking trip behind early duelers gives this FL shipper best shot to prevail
  2. #6 – Phonemyposseagain (6-5): Lightning quick from the gate; goes for 6th consecutive win; trainer K. Patterson win pct. is sick (44%)
  3. #1/1A – Higher Purpose/Parade of Nations (10-1): Like the #1A but you get both for the price of one; “Purpose” supplies the early pace while “Nations” haz the tactical advantage
 Race 7 is the MD Coalition Stakes 

  1. #8 – Wonderful Light (5-2): V. Carrasco won Tim Distaff stakes last year with lone mount; this one is his only mount today; likes distance (2:1-1-0)
  2. #7 – Clubman (7-2): Been facing better, gets rider J. Pimentel who is 2 for 3 on him BUT is this distance too short for him?
  3. #2 – Sparticle (3-1): Gate-to-wire threat if not challenged early; owner/trainer combo like to win at Tim and do so often

Race 8 

  1. #6 – Gold Man (5-2): The 10-year-old loves his profession, 22 wins from 88 career starts; won only previous Tim start last year
  2. #1 – Sunman (4-1): Dances every dance (13:4-3-2); perfect spot after J. Robb $25k claim; oddly this 3-yr-old is 3 for 3 v. elders
  3. #4 – Masai Man (9-2): Second start with Lasix and blinkers often generates positive results after first win; faces tougher here

 Race 9 

  1. #4 – Above It All (8-1): $ LONGSHOT $ Made a nice middle move in latest but going one mile appears too far for his liking
  2. #8 – Camden Bridge (10-1): Precipitous class drop after four MSW outings at CT that were not horrible, just not improving
  3. #6 – Hart Well (9-2): Woefully slow early fractions at CT when lost lead late, settling for second; repeated that effort at Mnr next outing