The GQ Approach – Laurel August 11

by Aug 11, 2019Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing0 comments

Photo by Dottie Miller.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel for the live summer racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today’s carryovers

  • Rainbow Pick 6: $29,499.39
  • Super High 5: none
  • Late Pick 5: $5,534.12

Multi-race wagers

  • Race 1 – $2 DOUBLE  6, 7 w/ 1, 3, 6 ($12)
  • Race 4 – 50 cent Pick-5 3, 4, 8 w/ 1, 2, 8 w/ 2, 7 w/ 3, 4, 5 w/ 4, 6 ($54)
  • Race 7 – $2 Double 3, 4, 5 w/ 4, 6 ($12)

Best Bet of the Day

  • Race 1: #6 – Lively Kitten (4-1)

Longshot Play of the Day

  • Race 8: #6 – Mortal Storm (8-1)

 Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Sunny; highs in the 80s
  • Scheduled turf races: 1st, 2nd, 5th, 6th, 7th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST / Turf – GOOD

First Race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1 is ON THE TURF

  1. #6 – Lively Kitten (4-1): *** BEST BET *** It’s a miracle this Kitten’s Joy offspring earned her diploma sprinting on the dirt, albeit at Del versus three fillies; she should relish getting on the grass and going two-turns; A. Adorino (21% in ’19) comes in for lone mount on the card 
  2. #7 – Punk Rock Princess (8-5): Took time off after getting buried in the $150k Astoria Stakes at Belmont in June; prior to that she disposed of a trio of peers at Lrl that saw the runner-up graduate in her next outing; should should distance and turf       
  3. #5 – Baytown Babe (10-1): Broke maiden in latest, her fourth career start due to one or all three changes… brief layoff,  addition of Lasix and/or venue from Kee/CD to Mnr; it was most likely the latter two; switch to turf should be another positive change for this daughter of Twirling Candy with Dynaformer on her dam side        

Race 2 is ON THE TURF

  1. #3 – The Poser (8-1): MD-bred gelded son of Bandbox out of the Mojave Moon mare Heavenly Moon (18:2-4-5 turf record) who earned SHOW purse in MD Million Ladies (turf event); nice work pattern includes one going 5f   
  2. #6 – On the Turf (7-5): Seen this movie before where a 2-year-old is runner-up in multiple races to start career at short prices and with each subsequent start, gets bet down even shorter odds, which rarely results in a win; if he does, then I’ll tip my cap       
  3. #1 – No Sugar No Cream (5-1): Filly returns to home base to take on the boys in her second outing; connections must have been high on her considering they shipped her to Aqu for debut in April; didn’t get the cleanest of breaks, flashed speed early but tired        

Race 3 

  1. #6 – Call Me Jelly Roll (7-5): 4-time winning 3-year-old continues to take advantage of elders who still seek their 3rd career victory; this gal has found trouble in her last two outings at this level yet still prevailed over her older foes, as she should in here for the “turkey”    
  2. #4 – Pictura (8-1): This 4-year-old started her career 2 years ago with a lot of promise, competing in MSW but with time she seemed to lose heart and hit rock bottom, finally earning her diploma in 18th start; banking on the Lightbulb Theory to continue after seeing her easily beat $5kN2L after her maiden score     
  3. #7 – Allison K (5-2): Another 3-year-old in here who is a 3-time winner but unlike top pick, her’s all came against her peers; faced ‘Jelly Roll” 3 races back, coming up 2-lengths short; only runner who is getting class relief    

Race 4

  1. #3 – Defend the Bay (6-1): Where’s the early speed in this $10kMCL one-mile affair? Answer: There is none! By default bug boy A. Whisman may take this gelding to the front as he exits a sprint that had fairly quick early fractions; if this scenario plays out, nobody may pass him in the stretch     
  2. #8 – Sing a Verse (7-2): This gelding had an older half-sister who made her living racing around two-turns; though the Lrl one-mile is only one turn, at least he’s getting the most real estate to cover in his 9th career start; without much early pace, this Closer might only grab a minor share   
  3. #4 – Son of Aponi (2-1): Only contestant in this event who last raced against better on dirt; not that losing by 6+ lengths v. $25kMCL puts him in the Winners Circle against this crowd but the second and third place-finishers graduated in their next efforts     

Race 5 is ON THE TURF

  1. #2 – Godlovesasinner (5-2): Yep… 1 for 31 and he’s the top pick. Does ITM in 7of 10 tries at this distance and surface which includes his lone win make you feel better? Gotta believe D. Centeno isn’t coming to Lrl just for this mount for the exercise    
  2. #1 – Forthegreatergood (12-1): There’s a lot of early speed in here and many of those lone win came in gate-to-wire fashion; that won’t happen with a half dozen dueling early, so enter this gray gelding who passed a few early enroute to his lone victory     
  3. #8 – Quick Man (10-1): Got SHOW purse in lone turf try at Del going 5 panels as runner-up came back to win in next start; any improvement off that 79 Brisnet number and the fact he passed rivals is a plus      

Race 6 is ON THE TURF

  1. #2 – Where You Was (9-5): Exits two tougher turf sprints where he earned the SHOW purse in both while racing evenly; first time stretching out to two turns should find him on the early lead unless #1 – Smokin Hot Factor takes the initiative; has the pedigree to handle the distance if the fractions are reasonably soft  
  2. #7 – Rule Yourself (3-1): Been quite the ATM (26:2-8-4) and no worse than 5th in last 10 starts; gets back on turf which he performs on even better with a win and three runner-ups in last four turf tries, the last three at this level
  3. #3 – Redeemed Gentleman (10-1): Draw a line through last start, his first of the year just last week; sprinting on dirt is not his game but he presumably ran to fill the race; gets K. Gomez back in the irons who has guided this chestnut to both career wins… on turf      

 Race 7 is ON THE TURF

  1. #4 – Kitty’s Right (3-1): Closing Sprinter has understandably come up short in last two turf tries as the distance was 5 furlongs; today this 6-year-old mare gets 6 furlongs, jock switch to F. Lynch and class reilef    
  2. #5 – Brexit Revenge (6-1): Lost all chance at the break when bobbled on Mth turf as 5-2 second choice; return to sprint and with H. Karamanos returning to pilot, there will be value with a runner whose trainer J. Stephens enjoys shipping to Lrl (12:5-1-1 the past year)   
  3. #3 – Frisky Whiskey (15-1): Deep Closer gets the extra 1/16th that should make the difference from “passing tired rivals” comments in the Past Performances to “up in time”; will need to take another step forward in third career turf start   

Race 8 

  1. #6 – Mortal Storm (8-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Lost any chance in latest hen “squeezed; steadied” in first level allowance; jock R. Montanez returns to make amends, get an alert, clean break and try to make every pole a winning one as his five foes lack early kick       
  2. #4 – Wicked Awesome (2-1): Ran a winning race in latest , losing a headbob to rival who validated the victory by beating Alwn1x in next start; will need pace help from unlikely sources to make presence known entering the stretch       
  3. #5 – Fanniebellefleming (3-1): Adds blinkers in first start off trainer D. Capuano $16k claim; takes step up though out of “jail”; will need to run better than his best Brisnet number (80) to get to the Winners Circle today