The GQ Approach – Pimlico May 25

by | May 25, 2019 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing

Cloud Computing

Cloud Computing edged Classic Empire to win the 2017 Preakness. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Pimlico for the live spring racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today’s carryovers

  • Rainbow Pick 6: $235,491
  • Super High 5: $736
  • Late Pick 5: none

Multi-race wagers

  • Race 1 – 50 cent Pick-3 3, 4 w/ 1, 6, 9 w/ 4, 8, 10, 11 ($12)
  • Race 4 – 20 cent Pick-6 3, 4, 7 w/ 6, 7, 9 w/ 1, 2 w/ 7, 8, 9 w/ 3, 4 w/ 3, 4, 9 ($64.80)
  • Race 8 – $2 Double 3, 4 w/ 3, 4, 9 ($12)

Best Bet of the Day

  • Race 4: #7 – Top Czar (5-2)

Longshot Play of the Day

  • Race 3: #4 – Carolina Ice (12-1)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Sunny; highs in the 70s
  • Scheduled turf races: 1st, 3rd, 5th, 7th, 9th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST / Turf – FIRM

First Race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1 is ON THE TURF

  1. #3 – Stroll Smokin (7-5): Catches a soft group of $16kn2Ls as this gray lead late on Lrl lawn v. better only to weaken in final strides going a 1/16th further than he will need to today 
  2. #4 – Belmonte (15-1): Dull in only previous turf try sprinting at GP last Dec. (6th by 13) v. $25kMCL but refuse to think this gelded son of More Than Ready cannot handle the grass 
  3. #8 – Telecommunication (15-1): CT-based runner for trainer O. Figgins gets regular rider L. Batista to come to B’more for a gate-to-wire try; was competitive v. same at Lrl two back then folded in last 1/16th when 88-1 

Race 2

  1. #9 – Queen of Muskoka (3-1): Has improved on speed figure in each subsequent start and makes second start with blinkers in fourth career outing; finished behind the #1 and #4 two back but had traffic issues in that one 
  2. #1 – Iam a Dancer (7-2): A woeful record (21:0-3-3) but there’s reason for hope as going two-turns is her favorite (7:0-2-2); trainer B. Plummer looks to break his ’19 0-fer
  3. #6 – Wisconsin (5-2): 4-year-old makes just second start following uninspiring turf sprint try at GP v. $30kMCL; owner who likes to win pulls a quick trigger, dropping to bottom; trainer M. Gorham a healthy 24% with +2.22 ROI down 2+ classes

Race 3 is ON THE TURF

  1. #4 – Carolina Ice (12-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Last year broke maiden on turf after a rough trip previously in turf debut; makes just third turf appearance here following a brief layoff
  2. #10 – Tex Mee a Kiss (12-1): Sprinted last month in comeback from 6-month layoff; only runner in here with both career wins at this distance; note: listed rider J. Davis does not come in to ride as C. Carrasco replaces her (unfortunately not a positive sign IMHO)
  3. #8 – Aciano (4-1): Team Gaudet private purchase out of a $25kn3L at Tam in March resurfaces here at lowest level in 13th career start, 12th on turf; adds blinkers

Race 4

  1. #7 – Top Czar (5-2): *** BEST BET *** Popular at the windows of late but burning bettors money being beaten favorite in 2 of last 3 at this level; was runner-up in latest as Show finisher came back to win here when stepping up
  2. #4 – Conquistodor Fuego (15-1): Ran far behind top pick in first start against winners; gets a bit more real estate to cover which can only help as he has no early speed; going with Lightbulb Theory as it took 38 tries to break maiden, two races back 
  3. #3 – Fire Marshall (2-1): Call it a bounce, didn’t like the turf or simply over his head in latest following an 81 Bris# when breaking maiden at the bottom; even a slight regression from that one puts him in Winners Circle today

Race 5 is ON THE TURF

  1. #6 – More Abundance (6-1): Desperately sought one who could stalk what should be a torrid early pace; gets regular rider A. Lopez back in irons for second start after layoff as that first one  was void of enough early speed that did not meltdown
  2. #9 – Grandiflora (6-1): There’s a plethora of early speed in here which bodes for this 8-year-old gelding who enjoys playing second or third fiddle (just 5 for 50); came up a nose short when T. McCarthy rode; he’s out of town today so rising star 7 lb. bug A. Whisman gets the call
  3. #7 – Showalter (5-1): Makes debut in 13th career start; bloodlines give him a thumbs up as granddad Dayjur earned a living sprinting on the grass across the pond; trainer G. Capuano 22% with first on turf runners (see stablemate O’Dionysus debut turf win 5/10/18 at Pim)

Race 6

  1. #1 – Snippety (6-1): Lightly raced 5-year-old mare didn’t care for the grass so back on the main oval where she’s been hit the board in all three outings (3:2-0-1); trust that journeyman J. Bracho knows this one well and able to return her to Winners Circle on one class level drop
  2. #2 – Two Hot Betty (3-1): NY export for trainer J. Englehart couldn’t seal the deal in MD debut when much the second best, giving up lead late going 7f; cuts back to 6f and was flattered by Show finisher who came back to win v. similar at Prx
  3. #8 – Redeeming Love (12-1): Discouraging turf effort when chilly on the board (18-1) when last year was third in turf debut at same level; makes one wonder… especially since she’s being offered for $2k less just to get 2lb. wgt. break; returns to dirt and could be a nice underneath price

Race 7 is ON THE TURF

  1. #8 – Up Hill Battle (6-1): Trainer H. McMahon is quietly having a nice Pim meet (10:3-2-3) though this one will need to do better than her off the turf 8th-place performance in first after layoff; gets back on turf and though winless on this surface (8:0-1-2) those were against better 
  2. #9 – Unaquoi (7-2): Interesting to see how veteran rider J. Almodovar handles this versatile runner as the early fractions could be soft so he might lone speed (#7) early; 1 for 1 on Pim turf
  3. #7 – Racinginthestreet (4-1): What she lacks in class at this level she could make up in speed; could lull the others to sleep and have enough in the tank to last to the wire; #6 could threaten early

Race 8

  1. #3 – Daria’s Angel (5-2): Belmont-based runner ships to MD for first time ever for trainer R. Atras (32%) whose career has taken off this year with her help, winning a minor stakes at Aqu two back 
  2. #4 – Moon Virginia (2-1): OTB at Del in latest when sent off 2-1 second choice v. better; has been a model of consistency in this condition in previous six efforts (6:2-2-2); look for her to bounce back via stalking trip 
  3. #5 – Aikenetta (3-1): Could be victimize by other speedster (#2) so R. Montanez will need to gauge early how this R. Rodriguez trained shipper handles this next level after conquering Alwn1x in last effort at Lrl 2-months ago

Race 9 is ON THE TURF

  1. #9 – Great Herman (5-1): 3-year-old has competed against elders in last two just fine even though the 5 12 and 6 furlongs was a bit too far to carry his speed; turf debut for one not necessarily bred for it but should lead the way into the stretch and just cross your fingers from that point on  
  2. #4 – Love You Much (7-2): Horrible start gave him too much to do late while going just 5 furlongs; same is true today but might be wishful thinking that he can get up late at this distance regardless of the trip         
  3. #3 – What a Run (15-1): Need to draw a line through his last two, his only two dirt starts though also only two with blinkers; trust trainer A. Merryman that they stay on and he’ll improve returning to turf sprint   

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Friday May 24th at Pimlico had 6 winners from the 9-race card (2 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $7.00 (1st race), $3.20 (2nd), $32.60 (3rd), $4.00 (6th), $11.20 (7th) and $5.60 (9th). Of the suggested multi-race wagers hit the R1-R3 50 cent Pick-3 for $59.05 (cost: $12).
  • BEST BET of the Day: Lucky Ninety Nine (2nd race: 9-5 M/L; 5-2 PT) between rivals early, saved ground mid-turn angled out near the sixteenth marker but lacked a solid run and finished fourth.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day: Pep Talking (5th race: 8-1 M/L; 6-1 PT) stalked the pace, circled the far turn three-wide, was never asked in the stretch while the rider had a snug hold then lugged in at the sixteenth pole and finished seventh.