The GQ Approach – Pimlico May 25

by May 25, 2019Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing

Cloud Computing

Cloud Computing edged Classic Empire to win the 2017 Preakness. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Pimlico for the live spring racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today’s carryovers

  • Rainbow Pick 6: $235,491
  • Super High 5: $736
  • Late Pick 5: none

Multi-race wagers

  • Race 1 – 50 cent Pick-3 3, 4 w/ 1, 6, 9 w/ 4, 8, 10, 11 ($12)
  • Race 4 – 20 cent Pick-6 3, 4, 7 w/ 6, 7, 9 w/ 1, 2 w/ 7, 8, 9 w/ 3, 4 w/ 3, 4, 9 ($64.80)
  • Race 8 – $2 Double 3, 4 w/ 3, 4, 9 ($12)

Best Bet of the Day

  • Race 4: #7 – Top Czar (5-2)

Longshot Play of the Day

  • Race 3: #4 – Carolina Ice (12-1)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Sunny; highs in the 70s
  • Scheduled turf races: 1st, 3rd, 5th, 7th, 9th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST / Turf – FIRM

First Race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1 is ON THE TURF

  1. #3 – Stroll Smokin (7-5): Catches a soft group of $16kn2Ls as this gray lead late on Lrl lawn v. better only to weaken in final strides going a 1/16th further than he will need to today 
  2. #4 – Belmonte (15-1): Dull in only previous turf try sprinting at GP last Dec. (6th by 13) v. $25kMCL but refuse to think this gelded son of More Than Ready cannot handle the grass 
  3. #8 – Telecommunication (15-1): CT-based runner for trainer O. Figgins gets regular rider L. Batista to come to B’more for a gate-to-wire try; was competitive v. same at Lrl two back then folded in last 1/16th when 88-1 

Race 2

  1. #9 – Queen of Muskoka (3-1): Has improved on speed figure in each subsequent start and makes second start with blinkers in fourth career outing; finished behind the #1 and #4 two back but had traffic issues in that one 
  2. #1 – Iam a Dancer (7-2): A woeful record (21:0-3-3) but there’s reason for hope as going two-turns is her favorite (7:0-2-2); trainer B. Plummer looks to break his ’19 0-fer
  3. #6 – Wisconsin (5-2): 4-year-old makes just second start following uninspiring turf sprint try at GP v. $30kMCL; owner who likes to win pulls a quick trigger, dropping to bottom; trainer M. Gorham a healthy 24% with +2.22 ROI down 2+ classes

Race 3 is ON THE TURF

  1. #4 – Carolina Ice (12-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Last year broke maiden on turf after a rough trip previously in turf debut; makes just third turf appearance here following a brief layoff
  2. #10 – Tex Mee a Kiss (12-1): Sprinted last month in comeback from 6-month layoff; only runner in here with both career wins at this distance; note: listed rider J. Davis does not come in to ride as C. Carrasco replaces her (unfortunately not a positive sign IMHO)
  3. #8 – Aciano (4-1): Team Gaudet private purchase out of a $25kn3L at Tam in March resurfaces here at lowest level in 13th career start, 12th on turf; adds blinkers

Race 4

  1. #7 – Top Czar (5-2): *** BEST BET *** Popular at the windows of late but burning bettors money being beaten favorite in 2 of last 3 at this level; was runner-up in latest as Show finisher came back to win here when stepping up
  2. #4 – Conquistodor Fuego (15-1): Ran far behind top pick in first start against winners; gets a bit more real estate to cover which can only help as he has no early speed; going with Lightbulb Theory as it took 38 tries to break maiden, two races back 
  3. #3 – Fire Marshall (2-1): Call it a bounce, didn’t like the turf or simply over his head in latest following an 81 Bris# when breaking maiden at the bottom; even a slight regression from that one puts him in Winners Circle today

Race 5 is ON THE TURF

  1. #6 – More Abundance (6-1): Desperately sought one who could stalk what should be a torrid early pace; gets regular rider A. Lopez back in irons for second start after layoff as that first one  was void of enough early speed that did not meltdown
  2. #9 – Grandiflora (6-1): There’s a plethora of early speed in here which bodes for this 8-year-old gelding who enjoys playing second or third fiddle (just 5 for 50); came up a nose short when T. McCarthy rode; he’s out of town today so rising star 7 lb. bug A. Whisman gets the call
  3. #7 – Showalter (5-1): Makes debut in 13th career start; bloodlines give him a thumbs up as granddad Dayjur earned a living sprinting on the grass across the pond; trainer G. Capuano 22% with first on turf runners (see stablemate O’Dionysus debut turf win 5/10/18 at Pim)

Race 6

  1. #1 – Snippety (6-1): Lightly raced 5-year-old mare didn’t care for the grass so back on the main oval where she’s been hit the board in all three outings (3:2-0-1); trust that journeyman J. Bracho knows this one well and able to return her to Winners Circle on one class level drop
  2. #2 – Two Hot Betty (3-1): NY export for trainer J. Englehart couldn’t seal the deal in MD debut when much the second best, giving up lead late going 7f; cuts back to 6f and was flattered by Show finisher who came back to win v. similar at Prx
  3. #8 – Redeeming Love (12-1): Discouraging turf effort when chilly on the board (18-1) when last year was third in turf debut at same level; makes one wonder… especially since she’s being offered for $2k less just to get 2lb. wgt. break; returns to dirt and could be a nice underneath price

Race 7 is ON THE TURF

  1. #8 – Up Hill Battle (6-1): Trainer H. McMahon is quietly having a nice Pim meet (10:3-2-3) though this one will need to do better than her off the turf 8th-place performance in first after layoff; gets back on turf and though winless on this surface (8:0-1-2) those were against better 
  2. #9 – Unaquoi (7-2): Interesting to see how veteran rider J. Almodovar handles this versatile runner as the early fractions could be soft so he might lone speed (#7) early; 1 for 1 on Pim turf
  3. #7 – Racinginthestreet (4-1): What she lacks in class at this level she could make up in speed; could lull the others to sleep and have enough in the tank to last to the wire; #6 could threaten early

Race 8

  1. #3 – Daria’s Angel (5-2): Belmont-based runner ships to MD for first time ever for trainer R. Atras (32%) whose career has taken off this year with her help, winning a minor stakes at Aqu two back 
  2. #4 – Moon Virginia (2-1): OTB at Del in latest when sent off 2-1 second choice v. better; has been a model of consistency in this condition in previous six efforts (6:2-2-2); look for her to bounce back via stalking trip 
  3. #5 – Aikenetta (3-1): Could be victimize by other speedster (#2) so R. Montanez will need to gauge early how this R. Rodriguez trained shipper handles this next level after conquering Alwn1x in last effort at Lrl 2-months ago

Race 9 is ON THE TURF

  1. #9 – Great Herman (5-1): 3-year-old has competed against elders in last two just fine even though the 5 12 and 6 furlongs was a bit too far to carry his speed; turf debut for one not necessarily bred for it but should lead the way into the stretch and just cross your fingers from that point on  
  2. #4 – Love You Much (7-2): Horrible start gave him too much to do late while going just 5 furlongs; same is true today but might be wishful thinking that he can get up late at this distance regardless of the trip         
  3. #3 – What a Run (15-1): Need to draw a line through his last two, his only two dirt starts though also only two with blinkers; trust trainer A. Merryman that they stay on and he’ll improve returning to turf sprint   

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Friday May 24th at Pimlico had 6 winners from the 9-race card (2 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $7.00 (1st race), $3.20 (2nd), $32.60 (3rd), $4.00 (6th), $11.20 (7th) and $5.60 (9th). Of the suggested multi-race wagers hit the R1-R3 50 cent Pick-3 for $59.05 (cost: $12).
  • BEST BET of the Day: Lucky Ninety Nine (2nd race: 9-5 M/L; 5-2 PT) between rivals early, saved ground mid-turn angled out near the sixteenth marker but lacked a solid run and finished fourth.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day: Pep Talking (5th race: 8-1 M/L; 6-1 PT) stalked the pace, circled the far turn three-wide, was never asked in the stretch while the rider had a snug hold then lugged in at the sixteenth pole and finished seventh.