The GQ Approach – Pimlico May 12

by | May 12, 2019 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing

Cloud Computing

Cloud Computing edged Classic Empire to win the 2017 Preakness. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Pimlico for the live spring racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today’s carryovers

  • Rainbow Pick 6: $1,077
  • Super High 5: none
  • Late Pick 5: none

Multi-race wagers

  • Race 1 – $2 Double 9 w/ 3, 4, 5 ($6)
  • Race 4 – 50 cent Pick-5  4, 6, 7 w/ 6, 8 w/ 2, 4, 6  w/ 1, 8, 9 w/ 3, 4, 7 ($54)
  • Race 7 – $2 Double 1, 8 w/ 3, 4, 7 ($12)

Best Bet of the Day

  • Race 4: #4 – Bandito (9-2)

Longshot Play of the Day

  • Race 5: #6 – Over Exposed (6-1)

Analysis

  • Weather: Cloudy w/ rain; highs in the 50s
  • Scheduled turf races: 1st, 3rd, 5th, 7th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST / Turf – OFF

First Race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #9 – Hardredcandy (9-5): Do my eyes deceive me?! Jock Mario Pino listed to pilot this colt for his first mount of 2019… off the turf… in pouring rain… sign me up!  Looks like a gate-to-wire winner among those left to brave the elements 
  2. #1 – Itgot Grandma (10-1): Reported as a gelding since last start which came in Feb. at Aqu where he showed nothing; best of 3 outings came at one mile over Lrl dirt in a rail trip when stumbled at the start 
  3. #7 – Rumors of Violence (5-1): More like rumors that a trainer M. Dickinson runner would not scratch from an off the turf event; maybe the fact that the pedigree should allow this gelded son of Violence out of a Kris S. mare to do well on a sloppy track is the reason he’ll run; with that said, the only runner not mentioned here is the “Shug” McGaughey first-time (#6 – Torpedo Tom), who your truly has liekly put in the Winners Circle   

Race 2

  1. #4 – Jazzy Juder (4-1): Lightly raced 6-year-old mare (13:3-0-4) conquered N3L for $12,500 in last effort two months ago; this NY-bred competed against better at NYRA tracks on turf  in earlier races but recently discovered dirt was just fine as well (4:2-0-1) in last 4   
  2. #3 – Shecor (7-2): 7 lb. bug F. Pinero is 3 for 3 with traier K. Cox runners, this one making first start after claim for a nickel on steep drop and won for fun; has always given an honest effort at this level but winless on an off track (7:0-3-1)  
  3. #5 – Robin’s Destiny (3-1): Has struggled in last two and a half years, not hitting the board in last eight starts; claimed for $16k by trainer J. Ness out of last start for $16k on steep drop while trailing after stumble at the start; trainer wins at 25% first after claim 

Race 3 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #9 – Marie From Parie (4-1): Best surface for her is turf but isn’t too shabby on an off track (4:0-2-1); can get early lead or stalk as jock H. Karamanos knows her from the past so it’s a smart move by trainer F. Allen switches to him for better results since claim three races back  
  2. #3 – Into Bluegrass (3-1): 5-year-old mare with just 10 career starts was off for 15-months, returning to race in March on dirt which didn’t go well but responded nicely in next out, winning on turf versus $16kN2L; off track should be to her liking as well  
  3. #4 – Ginger in Disguise (30-1): Why not at this price? 1 fro 4 on a sloppy track; in two previous tries on the MD circuit, both in $16kN2L she was third then jock lost irons at the start   

Race 4

  1. #4 – Bandito (9-2): *** BEST BET *** Lone win from 14 career starts came on an off track; has competed at this OC$25k level in to the point of being among top 3 finishers in 5 of 6 efforts 
  2. #7 – Three Phase (5-1): Been an ATM (12:1-5-5) even though this gelding struggles to pass all rivals so no wonder he got claimed two back for a cool $32k; trainer C. Gonzalez wins at an amzing 33% the second tie saddling a runner 
  3. #6 – Mr Smurthwaite (5-2): The blinkers experiment is over as the hood comes off after trainer J. Ness added it after this gelding was transferred to his barn follwong maiden win at Tam; should handle an off track as it will be first time on it in fifth start of his career 

Race 5 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #6 – Over Exposed (6-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$  2 for 2 on an off track albeit at Pen but those did come against MSW and first-level allownace company; speed of the speed with the assumption there will be a few defections with the change in surface; only entry on the card for Pen-based trainer T. Kreiser who ships to MD with one goal… to win  
  2. #8 – Cocktail Waitress (15-1): Trainer H. McMahon must be Nostradamus entering this sprinter without a pedigree for turf in this turf event, and gets it not only off the turf but on a sloppy track which this filly loves (6:2-1-2); will give a leg-up to S. Russell who will insure a quick exit from the gate
  3. #10 – Sudden Hope (9-2): Certainly is fast enough early to be a threat and going 5 furlongs versus 5 1/2 helps as well; last 3 effrots have been on off tracks but against better company   

Race 6

  1. #2 – Jonathan McD (3-1): Failed as Post Time favorite in last two outings but was carried out on the turn in latest; if this late runner can build off effort at Lrl from two races back, he could finally hve a permanent pilot in V. Rosales versus the jock carousel having a different rider in 10 of his last 11 starts  
  2. #6 – Great Nation (9-5): Third race after layoff and second with 10lb. bug who got this gelding to the Show spot traveling 1/16th shorter than today; might get a favorable pace scenario to chase down leg-weary foes late
  3. #4 – Quit Your Moanin (2-1): Owns the best dirt Brisnet# of this bunch which was earned at Mnr last August; credit trainer H. Smith for figuring out this gelding during an 8-month layoff to bring him back a winner albeit at bottom level maidens 

Race 7  is OFF THE TURF

  1. #8 – Pendrell Moon (6-1): When in doubt, go with the hot rider (T. McCarthy) who has been clicking with trainer J. Ness at a 21% clip over the past year; this one has taken to the turf like a duck to water, which he’ll need to do if not scratched in this off the turf event; pedigree says he should handle it        
  2. #1 – Dedicated (15-1): Not only best last race Brisnet# (82) in this field it came on a sloppy track which will be the case today; though that was against weaker foes, he has faced better so that may be an indication that he’s returning to old form    
  3. #9 – Seattle Ric (9-2): Takes appropriate class drop after facing better in first start of 2019 when encoutnered traffic on the first turn; X-Man retains the mount and should be more forwardly placed today           

Race 8

  1. #4 – Grand Oasis (9-5): Exits second turf try but results were similar to first, lacking a rally when needed; switch to main oval resulted in maiden score v. $25kMCL three back; should improve in this spot; was a distant third in lone try on a sloppy surface      
  2. #3 – Le Gros Bill (9-2): Sheds blinkers after last two outings with them resulted in worst efforts of six race career OR one could say it was the only two races facing elders; personal best Brisnet# (77) came on a sloppy Lrl oval going one mile v. 3-year-old peers        
  3. #7 – Tri Try Colors (5-1): Connections must have performed a rain dance as this 3-year-old gelding best effrots have come in all 3 races on an off track (3:1-0-2); got caught up in an early duel in last outing so T. McCarthy saved him late to figth another day                        


YESTERDAY’S NEWS

  • On Saturday May 11th at Pimlico, had 6 winners on the 9-race card (1 Top selection in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $62.60 (1st race), $3.60 (2nd), $8.20 (4th), $38.00 (5th), $5.80 (6th) and $8.80 (9th). Of the suggested multi-race plays hit the R1-R2 $2 DOUBLE for $120.20 (cost: $12).
  • BEST BET of the Day was Ledecka (5th race: 4-1 M/L; 4-1 PT) circled foes around the turn, four-deep in upper stretch, floated five-wide when taking lead approaching the eighth pole, finished gamely but was no match for the winner, coming up one-and-one-quarter-lengths short and returned $6.40 to PLACE and $4.00 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day was Neetee Rides Again (3rd race: 15-1 M/L; 6-1 PT) stalked the pace, advanced between rivals on the far turn, turned for home 3-wide, floated to the 5-path and drifted in front of eventual runner-up HEY MABEL near the eighth pole and held sway under brisk urging to win by one-length. After a Stewards Inquiry and jockey objection by the rider of HEY MABEL was disqualified from 1st and placed second, thus returned $6.40 to PLACE and $4.60 to SHOW.