The GQ Approach – Pimlico May 12

by May 12, 2019Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing

Cloud Computing

Cloud Computing edged Classic Empire to win the 2017 Preakness. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Pimlico for the live spring racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today’s carryovers

  • Rainbow Pick 6: $1,077
  • Super High 5: none
  • Late Pick 5: none

Multi-race wagers

  • Race 1 – $2 Double 9 w/ 3, 4, 5 ($6)
  • Race 4 – 50 cent Pick-5  4, 6, 7 w/ 6, 8 w/ 2, 4, 6  w/ 1, 8, 9 w/ 3, 4, 7 ($54)
  • Race 7 – $2 Double 1, 8 w/ 3, 4, 7 ($12)

Best Bet of the Day

  • Race 4: #4 – Bandito (9-2)

Longshot Play of the Day

  • Race 5: #6 – Over Exposed (6-1)

Analysis

  • Weather: Cloudy w/ rain; highs in the 50s
  • Scheduled turf races: 1st, 3rd, 5th, 7th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST / Turf – OFF

First Race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #9 – Hardredcandy (9-5): Do my eyes deceive me?! Jock Mario Pino listed to pilot this colt for his first mount of 2019… off the turf… in pouring rain… sign me up!  Looks like a gate-to-wire winner among those left to brave the elements 
  2. #1 – Itgot Grandma (10-1): Reported as a gelding since last start which came in Feb. at Aqu where he showed nothing; best of 3 outings came at one mile over Lrl dirt in a rail trip when stumbled at the start 
  3. #7 – Rumors of Violence (5-1): More like rumors that a trainer M. Dickinson runner would not scratch from an off the turf event; maybe the fact that the pedigree should allow this gelded son of Violence out of a Kris S. mare to do well on a sloppy track is the reason he’ll run; with that said, the only runner not mentioned here is the “Shug” McGaughey first-time (#6 – Torpedo Tom), who your truly has liekly put in the Winners Circle   

Race 2

  1. #4 – Jazzy Juder (4-1): Lightly raced 6-year-old mare (13:3-0-4) conquered N3L for $12,500 in last effort two months ago; this NY-bred competed against better at NYRA tracks on turf  in earlier races but recently discovered dirt was just fine as well (4:2-0-1) in last 4   
  2. #3 – Shecor (7-2): 7 lb. bug F. Pinero is 3 for 3 with traier K. Cox runners, this one making first start after claim for a nickel on steep drop and won for fun; has always given an honest effort at this level but winless on an off track (7:0-3-1)  
  3. #5 – Robin’s Destiny (3-1): Has struggled in last two and a half years, not hitting the board in last eight starts; claimed for $16k by trainer J. Ness out of last start for $16k on steep drop while trailing after stumble at the start; trainer wins at 25% first after claim 

Race 3 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #9 – Marie From Parie (4-1): Best surface for her is turf but isn’t too shabby on an off track (4:0-2-1); can get early lead or stalk as jock H. Karamanos knows her from the past so it’s a smart move by trainer F. Allen switches to him for better results since claim three races back  
  2. #3 – Into Bluegrass (3-1): 5-year-old mare with just 10 career starts was off for 15-months, returning to race in March on dirt which didn’t go well but responded nicely in next out, winning on turf versus $16kN2L; off track should be to her liking as well  
  3. #4 – Ginger in Disguise (30-1): Why not at this price? 1 fro 4 on a sloppy track; in two previous tries on the MD circuit, both in $16kN2L she was third then jock lost irons at the start   

Race 4

  1. #4 – Bandito (9-2): *** BEST BET *** Lone win from 14 career starts came on an off track; has competed at this OC$25k level in to the point of being among top 3 finishers in 5 of 6 efforts 
  2. #7 – Three Phase (5-1): Been an ATM (12:1-5-5) even though this gelding struggles to pass all rivals so no wonder he got claimed two back for a cool $32k; trainer C. Gonzalez wins at an amzing 33% the second tie saddling a runner 
  3. #6 – Mr Smurthwaite (5-2): The blinkers experiment is over as the hood comes off after trainer J. Ness added it after this gelding was transferred to his barn follwong maiden win at Tam; should handle an off track as it will be first time on it in fifth start of his career 

Race 5 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #6 – Over Exposed (6-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$  2 for 2 on an off track albeit at Pen but those did come against MSW and first-level allownace company; speed of the speed with the assumption there will be a few defections with the change in surface; only entry on the card for Pen-based trainer T. Kreiser who ships to MD with one goal… to win  
  2. #8 – Cocktail Waitress (15-1): Trainer H. McMahon must be Nostradamus entering this sprinter without a pedigree for turf in this turf event, and gets it not only off the turf but on a sloppy track which this filly loves (6:2-1-2); will give a leg-up to S. Russell who will insure a quick exit from the gate
  3. #10 – Sudden Hope (9-2): Certainly is fast enough early to be a threat and going 5 furlongs versus 5 1/2 helps as well; last 3 effrots have been on off tracks but against better company   

Race 6

  1. #2 – Jonathan McD (3-1): Failed as Post Time favorite in last two outings but was carried out on the turn in latest; if this late runner can build off effort at Lrl from two races back, he could finally hve a permanent pilot in V. Rosales versus the jock carousel having a different rider in 10 of his last 11 starts  
  2. #6 – Great Nation (9-5): Third race after layoff and second with 10lb. bug who got this gelding to the Show spot traveling 1/16th shorter than today; might get a favorable pace scenario to chase down leg-weary foes late
  3. #4 – Quit Your Moanin (2-1): Owns the best dirt Brisnet# of this bunch which was earned at Mnr last August; credit trainer H. Smith for figuring out this gelding during an 8-month layoff to bring him back a winner albeit at bottom level maidens 

Race 7  is OFF THE TURF

  1. #8 – Pendrell Moon (6-1): When in doubt, go with the hot rider (T. McCarthy) who has been clicking with trainer J. Ness at a 21% clip over the past year; this one has taken to the turf like a duck to water, which he’ll need to do if not scratched in this off the turf event; pedigree says he should handle it        
  2. #1 – Dedicated (15-1): Not only best last race Brisnet# (82) in this field it came on a sloppy track which will be the case today; though that was against weaker foes, he has faced better so that may be an indication that he’s returning to old form    
  3. #9 – Seattle Ric (9-2): Takes appropriate class drop after facing better in first start of 2019 when encoutnered traffic on the first turn; X-Man retains the mount and should be more forwardly placed today           

Race 8

  1. #4 – Grand Oasis (9-5): Exits second turf try but results were similar to first, lacking a rally when needed; switch to main oval resulted in maiden score v. $25kMCL three back; should improve in this spot; was a distant third in lone try on a sloppy surface      
  2. #3 – Le Gros Bill (9-2): Sheds blinkers after last two outings with them resulted in worst efforts of six race career OR one could say it was the only two races facing elders; personal best Brisnet# (77) came on a sloppy Lrl oval going one mile v. 3-year-old peers        
  3. #7 – Tri Try Colors (5-1): Connections must have performed a rain dance as this 3-year-old gelding best effrots have come in all 3 races on an off track (3:1-0-2); got caught up in an early duel in last outing so T. McCarthy saved him late to figth another day                        


YESTERDAY’S NEWS

  • On Saturday May 11th at Pimlico, had 6 winners on the 9-race card (1 Top selection in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $62.60 (1st race), $3.60 (2nd), $8.20 (4th), $38.00 (5th), $5.80 (6th) and $8.80 (9th). Of the suggested multi-race plays hit the R1-R2 $2 DOUBLE for $120.20 (cost: $12).
  • BEST BET of the Day was Ledecka (5th race: 4-1 M/L; 4-1 PT) circled foes around the turn, four-deep in upper stretch, floated five-wide when taking lead approaching the eighth pole, finished gamely but was no match for the winner, coming up one-and-one-quarter-lengths short and returned $6.40 to PLACE and $4.00 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day was Neetee Rides Again (3rd race: 15-1 M/L; 6-1 PT) stalked the pace, advanced between rivals on the far turn, turned for home 3-wide, floated to the 5-path and drifted in front of eventual runner-up HEY MABEL near the eighth pole and held sway under brisk urging to win by one-length. After a Stewards Inquiry and jockey objection by the rider of HEY MABEL was disqualified from 1st and placed second, thus returned $6.40 to PLACE and $4.60 to SHOW.