The GQ Approach – Pimlico May 10

by | May 10, 2019 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing

Cloud Computing

Cloud Computing edged Classic Empire to win the 2017 Preakness. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Pimlico for the live spring racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today’s carryovers

  • Rainbow Pick 6: none
  • Super High 5: none
  • Late Pick 5: none

Multi-race wagers

  • Race 1 – $2 Double 2, 4, 6 w/ 2, 3 ($12)
  • Race 5 – 50 cent Pick-5 1, 3, 5 w/ 5, 7 w/ 2 w/ 2, 6, 8 w/ 2, 5, 7 ($27)
  • Race 8 – $2 Double 2, 6, 8 w/ 2, 5 ($12)

Best Bet of the Day

  • Race 9  #2 – Torch the Truth (4-1)

Longshot Play of the Day

  • Race 3  #3 – Crookit (6-1)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Cloudy; highs in the upper-60s
  • Scheduled turf races: 5th and 8th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST / Turf – FIRM

First Race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1

  1. #4 – Naughty Thoughts (2-1): Sent off 2-1 second choice in debut but ran evenly while finishing behind a weakening #2 in here; banking on the education from that one served her well
  2. #2 – Always Talking (5-2): Chased a gate-to-wire winner in debut then saw runner-up come back to graduate in next outing; trainer J. Robb does well with young runners (14%) and is 6 for 15 when dropping maidens in for a tag
  3. #6 – Hello Beautiful (6-1): Husband-wife (jock-trainer) team-up with their first 2-year-old of the season, a Golden Lad filly purchased at Tim Dec. Mixed Sale for $6,500; Mrs. Russell is 2 for 6 in her young career with equine babies

Race 2

  1. #3 – Joopster (5-2): Speed of the speed for this multi-class dropper for trainer J. Englehart (37% with that angle) gives J. Vargas, Jr. a leg up, a combo winning at a 36% clip over the past year      
  2. #2 – In Arrears (9-5): Twice as many runner-up finishes that wins but is one for one at Pim, a MD-bred Alw event in the slop, his only win going 6f in 14 attempts BUT trainer C. Gonzalez is 32% with turf-to-dirt angle
  3. #1 – Field Advantage (3-1): Speed from the rail as J. Toledo stays aboard follwing initial turf try which proved to be fruitless, not displaying his usual quickness from the gate; seeks first win going 6f (9:0-2-2)  

Race 3

  1. #3 – Crookit (6-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Showed some late interest in first outing a few weeks  back versus similar; reunited with A. Quiles who booted her home to be part of Super in each of the four times he was aboard (4:0-1-2-1)
  2. #1 – Justgimmeakiss (7-5): Bris# has been climbing for one whose been making a living at Pen; nice runner-up in latest at Lrl but 1 for 24 on a fast track makes her hard to endorse on top at these ML odds
  3. #6 – E Lizzy (2-1): Though a winner in her last effort as 4-5 favorite at Pen, this 10-time winner is still eligible for this “N4L or have not won a race since Nov. 10th” as it came for a claiming price lower than $5k… it was for $4kn1y 

Race 4

  1. #4 – Runabout (5-1): Exits turf try and returns to face Alw5000s foes where he rallied to get the SHOW purse in last two, the most recent finding traffic; hopes to get first run on a pair of speedsters
  2. #1 – Social Stranger (3-1): Deep Closer will need help from the pacesetters to come back a bit in the stretch; first time competing in this condition thanks to a qualifying effort, winning a $5k beaten claimer last October
  3. #3 – Dazzling Okie (5-2): 9-year-old still has fight in him as he won for $8k after trainer W. Potts claim two back, then game runner-up when in against a tougher group than has signed up for this same Starter condition   

Race 5 is ON THE TURF

  1. #5– Capucine (6-1): Away since winning on WO synthetic in Dec. v. open $6,250 claimers; likes the Pim grass (2:0-1-1) and may try to take this field gate-to-wire        
  2. #1 – Shifra Magician (9-2): Got an afternoon workout, racing 5 ½f off a 4-month layoff as this mare is only a threat going two-turns; blinkers go back on after off the last two races; always arrives on the scene too late to get picture taken but is solid underneath     
  3. #3 – Meddybemps (4-1): Can boast best career turf Bris# (90) which was earned a few years back; makes second start after trainer H. McMahon claim (18%) follwing a 6-month vacation; a step up in class  but has been working well throughout April                 

Race 6

  1. #7 – Cobh (2-1): Royally bred gelded son of Pioneerof the Nile is way off his form just a year ago;  takes fourth consecutive class drop, bottoming out here for a nickel            
  2. #5 – To the Hilt (10-1): Exits key race where top two came back to win when he was just 1-3 lengths behind going 5 1/2f; gets 6f today, his best distance (7:3-1-1) for trainer B. Feliciano, Jr.      
  3. #1 – Free to Trump (7-2): Easy gate-to-wire winner in latest over N3L; cuts back to sprint distance where he conquered $12,500N2L three races back      

Race 7

  1. #2 – Cover Photo (5-2): Goes for the Hat Trick with T. McCarthy in the irons though both wins came over an “off” track at Lrl, the latest against her elders as trainer M. Trombetta has this daughter of Munnings moving in the right direction
  2. #5 – Hot Friesia (3-1): Broke her maiden in lone previous try here at Old Hilltop; dances every dance but only other win came v. restricted (MD-bred) company, which this event is not; both wins have come at this 6f distance
  3. #6 – Mrs. Crews (4-1): NY-based trainer M. Nevin who had 1 win with 3 starters last year at Pim sneaks this 3-time winning 3-year-old to face (N3L) elders for the first time; fast track Bris#s are better than off track ones   

Race 8 is ON THE TURF

  1. #8 – Love Me Thrice (3-1): FTS by Paddy O’Prado out of the Not For Love mare Love Me Twice whose offspring include nice turf runners (Phlash Phelps, Tempt Me Twice) and Moonlight Shadow who won at first asking albeit 6f on dirt last year
  2. #6 – Ready To Run (12-1): Worth a shot at a price as he’s been on the lead at 1st Call in all four efforts and no worse than second in the stretch going 5 ½f in 3 of them; could get a breather as there are no others to challenge early… unless #4 (Railmaster) can recapture old form from ‘18  
  3. #2 – Time Flies By (7-5): This 4-year-old gelding should be poster boy for “Second-itis”, runner-up in 5 of 8 career starts, beaten favorite in 3 of those; seems to find trouble exiting the gate which doesn’t bode well in 5f events  

Race 9

  1. #2 – Torch the Truth (4-1): *** BEST BET *** Toledo chose this one over the #8 (8-1) and #9 (7-2) which works for me; 3 for 3 in ’19 as runner-up, all in this same condition; nice works since last outing
  2. #5 – Baptize the Boy (12-1): Appears to prefer an “off” track based on past performances but don’t be fooled because in both fast track efforts he encountered multiple issues in each
  3. #7 – Day the Music Died (10-1): Scratched out of yesterday’s 5f turf Alw event to go here; hoping this one will wave “Bye Bye…” ala Don McLean to his competition in deep stretch as he should be able to stalk the abundance of early speed   

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Thursday May 9th at Pimlico had just 5 winners from the 9-race card (1 Top Selection; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $5.00 (2nd race), $4.40 (3rd race), $5.20 (5th), $6.60 (7th) and $4.40 (9th).
  • BEST BET of the Day: Sanavi (8th race: 7-2 M/L; 6-1 PT) four-wide into the first turn, remained in the four-path throughout backstretch, was ask for run at the far turn but had nothing to offer and finished fifth.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day: Hayne’s Fever (4th race: 10-1 M/L; 3-1 PT) away from the gate alertly, disputed the lead between foes through quick early fraction, fought on gamely but weakened in the final 1/16th to finish 5th, just three-lengths behind the winner.