The GQ Approach – Laurel December 29

by | Dec 29, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing

Something Awesome

Something Awesome ran through the snow to win the Grade 3 General George. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live Fall racing meet, Post Time 12:35 pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

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  • Rainbow Pick 6: $1,680
  • Super High 5: none
  • Late Pick 5: none[/su_box]

[su_box title=”GQ’s Handicapping Tip of the Day” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”][stray-random][/su_box]

[su_box title=”Best Bet of the Day” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”]Race 3/ #6 – Press Virginia (3-1)[/su_box]

[su_box title=”Longshot Play of the Day” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”] Race 5 /#6 – Taco Supream (8-1)[/su_box]

[su_box title=”Multi-race Wagers” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”]

  • Race 1 – $2 Double: 1, 7 w/ 2, 6, 8 ($12)
  • Race 3 – 50 cent Pick 3: 1, 2, 6 w/ 5, 6, 8 w/ 3, 4, 6 ($13.50)
  • Race 6 – 50 cent Pick 3: 5, 8, 9 w/ 4, 6, 10 w/ 2, 3, 5 ($13.50)
  • Race 9 – $2 Double: 1, 3 w/ 6, 7 ($8)

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[su_heading size=”21″ align=”left”]Analysis[/su_heading]

  • Weather: Sunny with highs in the upper 40s
  • Projected track conditions: Main – GOOD to FAST / Turf – NONE
  • 1st Race Post Time 12:00pm EST

Race 1

  1. #1 – Cocktail Waitress (2-1): With rain yesterday and assumption that the track was “sealed” prior, look for speed to hold up well today; that theory will be tested here as this gal fits the mold
  2. #7 – Castle Ridge (6-1): Bad start may have been her excuse v. better in Lrl debut and first off trainer L. Gaudet claim from a gate-to-wire win at Kee which followed carbon copy maiden score
  3. #9 – Katie’s Reward (8-1): Jock/trainer combo of A. Suarez and J. Ness has been lethal of late but this is third try off $16k claim with this 4-time winning 3-year-old getting last chance with N3L v. elders

Race 2

  1. #8 – Two Carat (6-1): Drops to lowest level of ten race career in search of win #2 gets 10 lb bug after rider of previous two found trouble along the route; key may be gate out of the gate quicker
  2. #6 – Bagels and Lox (3-1): Conquered bottom level maidens in first start under conditioner A. Farrior after 6-month layoff; best races have come on a fast track while getting early lead
  3. #2 – Paz the Wine (7-2): Lightbulb Theory or trainer G. Motion finally found what makes this filly tick as she graduated in latest outing, her 18th; very consist speed figures good enough for repeat performance

Race 3 is the Heft Stakes

  1. #6 – Press Virginia (3-1): *** BEST BET *** 2 for 2 as he beat two next out winners in debut at Pen then stretched out nicely at Prx in first level allowance earning an eye-popping 92 BRIS# at today’s distance; trainer/jock combo travel down I-95 from Prx for this and stakes in 7th w/ 15-1 ML
  2. #2 – Win Win Win (5-2): May have the home field advantage over top pick as he owns similar resume’ with both wins on this Lrl oval; will need to carry speed another three-sixteenths
  3. #1 – Alwaysmining (2-1): Jock D. Centeno left the warm climate of FL to ride four on this card but ya have to think this one was the reason for the trip as he’s never ridden the others in prior races

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Race 4

  1. #5 – Wendell Fong (4-1): KY-bred FTS by Flat Out out of an unraced Forestry mare shows extensive, well-spaced, impressive work pattern with two 5f bullets for trainer J. Englehart
  2. #6 – Going for Gold (9-5): Ran a winning race in debut when breaking from the dreaded rail but got caught in final strides despite decent final furlong time
  3. #8 – Marco Island (15-1): Rough trips in last two as trainer R. Reid turns to C. Cedeno as combo is 1 for 2 at the meet; just needs a small step forward to be a threat

Race 5 is the Jennings Stakes

  1. #6 – Taco Supream (8-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Field of eight going one mile lacks the early speed this has sprinting; bloodlines say he can stretch it out without using too much energy early 
  2. #3 – Rockinn On Bye (8-5): Makes third start for trainer C. Gonzalez after two runner-up finishes which has been this 7-year-old’s favorite placing (22-times from 63 starts); always closes with a rush regardless of distance
  3. #4– Cordmaker (5-1): Strong finish in latest after breaking through gate prematurely; third start after layoff and stretches out to best distance (2:1-1-0)

Race 6 is the Gin Talking Stakes

  1. #8 – Kaylasaurus (9-2): Won career debut by a dozen at Pen in time that was 2/5 faster than stakes winner recorded a week earlier (I know, cannot compare) but she accelerated late which bodes well more an extra furlong here
  2. #5 – Getouttamyway (12-1): Second start with blinkers following gate to wire win going two-turns; strangely her only two defeats came in races on Lasix with bookend wins without the juice 
  3. #9 – Please Flatter Me (3-1): Winner of above mentioned stakes at Pen as 4-5 choice owns a pair of gaudy speed figures and looks to stay a perfect 3 for 3 

Race 7 is the Thirty-Eight Go Go Stakes

  1. #10 – Total Control (6-1): Lone entry on the card for Bel-based trainer B. Lynch as this gal hasn’t raced in 6-months but does well in first outing after a layoff (2:1-1-0)
  2. #4 – Sower (5-2): Big question is can she stretch speed out to one mile; the fact she shouldn’t be challenged early will help jock H. Karamanos nurse her through moderate early fractions
  3. #6 – Forever Liesl (5-1): Exits bridesmaid finish in G3 at the Big A nearly two month ago but this lone entry on the card for trainer M. Nevin hasn’t missed a beat in the A.M.; she’s 2 for 2 w/ V. Carrasco in the irons

Race 8 is the Dave’s Friend Stakes

  1. #3 – Cautious Giant (9-2): Exits tough Claiming Crown stakes at GP when jock lost whip; gets upgrade in that department with T. McCarthy; has tactical speed to get first run on early  
  2. #2 – Altissimo (5-2): Earned a career best BRIS# (105) topping previous best from a race earlier; OH-bred been getting it done v. in restricted stakes at OH tracks; will need to prove it in open company
  3. #5 – Laki (2-1): Best of this bunch with a runner-up effort in G3 DeFrancis Dash two back while coming off restricted stakes win early this month; could get dream trip behind early pair of duelers

Race 9 is the Politely Stakes

  1. #3 – Crabcakes (4-5): Loves Lrl (9:7-2-0) and the distance (9:6-1-1); seems as if she can dictate pace but will likely defer to a lesser talent to lead the way early and take control before Closers get into overdrive
  2. #1 – Limited View (15-1): Trainer J. Salzman, Jr. awfully confident in talking about this gal potential to be MD 3-year-old filly of the year?! Only if she wins here
  3. #6 – Anna’s Bandit (5-1): Didn’t care for the stretch out to one mile in latest; 6 furlongs may not be her ideal distance (5:2-1-0) but she dances every dance

Race 10

  1. #7 – Girl Drama (7-2): BRIS speed figures have been ascending in last three as class level in which she’s competed has been dropping; trainer C. Gonzalez wins at 33% clip second time saddling runners
  2. #6 – Expect Wonderful (3-1): Third race after 13-month layoff so she should show improvement while dropping a couple notches especially when she was “in tight” in the lane, lost by just 4 3/4
  3. #10 – When It Reigns (7-2): Owns best last race BRIS# (73) of this bottom level N2L bunch was earned when sent off Post Time favorite but encountered traffic which may have cost the win

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Wednesday December 26th at Laurel had 5 winners from the 9-race card (3 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD below).
  • Top Selections are 462 for 1639 (28.19%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%). The payoffs of the winners…
    • R1: $21.60
    • R2: $2.80
    • R3: $4.40
    • R4: xxx
    • R5: xxx
    • R6: xxx
    • R7: $5.00
    • R8: xxx
    • R9: $5.80
  • Of the suggested multirace wagers, hit the R2-R3 $2 DOUBLE for $9.80 (total wagered: $8).
  • BEST BET of the Day (163:51-40-14; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Lady By Choice (2nd race: 3-1 M/L; 8-5 PT) prompted five wide outside rivals, moved closer after a half mile, continued doggedly under left handed rousing, forged ahead in the final strides to prevail by a head and returned $2.80 to WIN, $2.10 to PLACE and $2.10 to SHOW
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (156:24-28-17; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) L’Overture (5th race: 30-1 M/L; 163-1 PT) was no factor and finished seventh.