The GQ Approach – Laurel November 23

by | Nov 23, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing | 0 comments

Something Awesome. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park, including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Jackpot Pick-5, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $2,589
  • Super High 5: no carryover
  • Late Pick 5: $15,180
GQ'S Tip of the Day
House Silks - This is a “play against” angle, especially in a maiden race. If the connections did not make their own silks available to the track for the jockey to wear, then what are the odds any of them will show in hopes of getting in a Winner's Circle photo with the jockey not donning the barn's silks?!
Best Bet of the Day
Race 1 / #1 – Dazzling Okie (8-5)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 8 / #4 – Papacho (20-1)

 

 

Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 5: $0.50 Pick-5 1, 5, 6 w/ 1, 3, 4 w/ 1, 5 w/ 1, 4, 6 w/ 1, 14 ($54.00)

Analysis

  • Weather: Overcast, high in the mid-30s
  • Projected condition of main track: FAST; Turf: None
  • Post time: 12:30 p.m. EST

Race 1

  1. #1 – Dazzling Okie (8-5): Dropped down to bottom for an easy win and some confidence-building; makes the date cutoff by just 11 days
  2. #4 – Rare Candy (9-2): Second off a layoff for Gonzalez trainee (27% strike rate)
  3. #6 – Rare Eagle (7-2): Defeated lesser last out; has four wins at the trip

Race 2

  1. #5 – Smart Step (9-5): Significant equipment adjustments — blinks added, runner gelded — since back-to-back show efforts vs. similar
  2. #6 – Tom Hagen (15-1): Fitness not likely to be a problem for a runner who made his debut last month going 12 furlongs on soft turf; breeding suggests this trip more likely to fit him
  3. #2 – Home It Tiz (2-1): Nothing wrong with debut effort when second at this level — but that was over a year ago, and on turf

Race 3

  1. #3 – Stakes On a Plane (3-1): Ran evenly in decent return to action last out following two-month break; blinks come off for a runner who has three previous graded stakes tries under her belt
  2. #2 – Setubal (9-5): Led late but couldn’t hold in last and figures to get a similar pressing trip here vs. mostly the same rivals; cutback a plus for a runner whose two wins both came at this trip
  3. #1 – Queen Nekia (2-1): Game effort in last when beaten a head for all the money, but note she got away with sluggish early fractions and still couldn’t seal the deal

Race 4

  1. #5 – Aiden’s Rag Doll (9-2): A bit of time off and a drop to an easier group ought to do this miss some good
  2. #3 – Neyami (6-1): Speedster has been beating up on lesser with four straight wins
  3. #1 – Doinwhatshelikes (6-1): Closing sort has five wins at the trip and finds easier company today

Race 5

  1. #1 – Samadi Blue (7-2): Decent try in last when rallying to be third and has had trip troubles in both prior tries; drops down a notch here
  2. #6 – Liar (6-1): Hasn’t been terrible in prior tries; not sure the added ground is a plus, but this is a middling group       
  3. #5 – By the Bay (6-1): First time in the Gonzalez barn for a runner who ran evenly in debut vs. maiden special rivals at CT last out

Race 6

  1. #3 – Publishanditerate (7-2): Form has been inching forward; winner from two-back runner-up effort repeated at $5k level
  2. #4 – Runabout (5-2): Has lost at this level three times; good try in last when leading at the furlong grounds but failing to hold on
  3. #1 – Conquest Falcon (2-1): Drops to the bottom here but is winless in four tries on the main track

Race 7

  1. #5 – Taking Aim (9-2): Eppler trainee gave a credible accounting of herself going seven-eighths and should appreciate the added ground here; Eppler has good record with second-start maidens, and this one’s a half-sib to BC Dirt Mile winner Tapizar
  2. #1 – War of the States (10-1): Like #5, this one gave a decent effort in debut and should appreciate added ground; Trombetta-Pimentel combo has been lethal at the meet
  3. #3 – Turing Machine (5-2): Perhaps change of scenery will get this 12-race maiden to the winner’s circle after repeated failures in SoCal

Race 8

  1. *** #4 – Papacho (20-1) LONGSHOT PLAY ***: Presence of plenty of early speed might give this closer the trip he needs
  2. #1 – Stone Bandit (5-2): PRX-based runner has done well at LRL and brings jock with him; speedster has won at this level
  3. #6 – Saratoga Wildcat (2-1): Another likely to be involved in the early running, this one has seen better company in last couple

Race 9

  1. #14 – Miss Philly Dilly (3-1): Keeps running into tough customers but running well; runner-up from Md. Million won her follow-up, and the winners of this one’s first two races returned to be second in an allowance at KEE and second in the Sorority at MTH
  2. #1 – Fashion Faux Pas (6-1): Delacour trainee disappointed when fourth at 2-1 in debut, but trainer has a stellar record with second-time starters and adds Lasix today
  3. #2 – Orbiting the Moon (15-1): Orb filly has been training forwardly towards her debut here for trainer Maldonado

Yesterday’s News

  • On Thursday, November 22 at Laurel had 3 winners from the 10-race card (2 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD below).
  • Top Selections are 431 for 1494 (28.85%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%). The payoffs of the day’s winners…
    • R1: xxx
    • R2: xxx
    • R3: $5.40
    • R4: $13.20
    • R5: xxx
    • R6: xxx
    • R7: xxx
    • R8: xxx
    • R9: $6.80
    • R10: xxx
  • Of the suggested multi-race wagers, did not hit any.
  • BEST BET of the Day (148:48-35-13; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Cordmaker (9th race: 4-1 M/L; 4.90-1 PT) broke through the starting gate before the race, relaxed towards the rear of the field, and rallied inside to earn the place, paying $5.40 to PLACE, and $3.80 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (142:22-25-17; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Im Charming (6th race: 20-1 M/L; 25-1 PT) lagged well off the pace and rallied to be sixth, beaten by 4 3/4 lengths.

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