The GQ Approach – Laurel November 17

by | Nov 16, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing

Something Awesome

Something Awesome ran through the snow to win the Grade 3 General George. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park (w/ live racing every Thursday through Sunday; Post Time 12:30pm EST), including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Jackpot Pick-5, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: none
  • Super High 5: $1,817
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ'S Tip of the Day
House Silks - This is a “play against” angle, especially in a maiden race. If the connections did not make their own silks available to the track for the jockey to wear, then what are the odds any of them will show in hopes of getting in a Winner's Circle photo with the jockey not donning the barn's silks?!
Best Bet of the Day
Race 7 / #3 – Takedown (2-1)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 4 / #3 – Full of Drama (10-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double 4, 8 w/ 2, 5 ($8)
  • Race 4 – 50 cent Pick-4  3, 8, 12 w/ 1, 7, 9 w/ 4, 5, 9 w/ 3 ($13.50)
  • Race 8 – $2 Double 1, 3 w/ 4 ($4)

Analysis

  • Weather: Sunny, high in the upper-40s
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST / Turf – CLOSED FOR THE SEASON
  • Post time: 12:30pm EST

Race 1

  1. #8 – Luna Fortis (3-1): KY-bred FTS by Will Take Charge by a Malibu Moon mare whose produced two winners from three previous offspring in just a handful of starts; love the work pattern ending with nice breeze from the gate
  2. #4 – Souper Escape (6-1): Failed miserable as 2-1 Post Time favorite (5th by 12) going 6 panels; adds blinkers and a couple more furlongs to redeem herself for deep-pocket connections 
  3. #7 – China Cat (9-5): Found Lrl MSW more her speed in second start compared to Sar in debut but settled to be bridesmaid despite an 81 BRIS# which is tops in here among those who have raced

Race 2

  1. #5 – Hidden Bamboo (6-5): Seems insane to be a Chalk-Eating Weasel here as this gelding has won just once when sent off as bettors choice in last 9 consecutive starts; foes lack early speed to make it 1 for 10
  2. #2 – Great Nation (10-1): Second start with blinkers and drops a notch while getting back on a fast track; might behoove rider to be quicker form the gate as he was in maiden score
  3. #4 – Ticker Tape Parade (8-1): Has finished fourth in last 8 of 10 tries (hint: bottom wheel in Super) while just 1 for 20 lifetime but first start for new barn and at 6 furlongs

Race 3

  1. #2 – Floating By (9-2): Exits turf try when rank yet got SHOW purse vs. open $20k claimers; faces tougher group than the $12,500 claimers she destroyed two back here at today’s distance but looks like lone speed
  2. #7 – Prevailing Party (10-1): Didn’t get much out of the sprint though chart caller noted “late interest”; that was her first race in 4-months and now gets a more familiar distance
  3. #5 – Pretty Enuff (9-5): Been an ATM since arriving in C. Gonzalez barn 5 races back; might be a closing sprinter as she was OTB in only previous start going one mile

Race 4

  1.   #3 – Full of Drama (10-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Adds blinkers, turf-to-dirt and drops a level while retaining services of K. Davis who has won with 10 for 30 runners for trainer H. McMahon over the past year
  2. #12 – Weekends for Work (5-1): PA-bred FTS by El Padrino out of a Not for Love mare for trainer J. Robb who places his runners where they can be successful first time out (13%)
  3. #8 – American Star (12-1): Most experienced of these 2-year-olds with 5 starts, makes second one with blinkers as first didn’t go so well (7th by 14 v. better) but let’s blame the off track

Race 5  

  1. #7 – The Catmancan (9-2): Fits this “NW4L OR non-winner in 6 months” condition perfectly as this 5-time winner last got to the Winners’ Circle with 5 days of eligibility to spare
  2. #1 – Promote (3-1): Exits a pair of ITM finishes versus better (open $8k Claimers), one on dirt and latest on turf, this one will be third after 5-month layoff
  3. #9 – Mountain Cry (7-2): First start off leading trainer C. Gonzalez claim who wins 33% of the time in this scenario (45 from 136 starters)

Race 6    

  1. #5 – Brahms Romp (7-2): Broke GQ’s heart in latest when came up a head short as BEST BET while carried out by winner yet no inquiry nor objection; now is not the time to jump ship as trainer J. Ness and A. Suarez have been hitting on all cylinders of late 
  2. #9 – Wildly Clever (20-1): Needs more than 6 furlongs to have a shot so disregarding dull performance on multi-level drop in latest to this level; added distance helps to make him a threat
  3. #4 – Roman Warrior (10-1): An ugly 0 for 11 at Lrl and 0 for 10 at this distance but drops back to level where he can compete; third less than one-length behind top pick two back following stumble

Race 7

  1. #3 – Takedown (2-1): *** BEST BET *** Back to reality and among foes this 3-year-old should handle; took time off after chasing stakes company peers unsuccessfully; latest was first try versus elders which is always a challenge; this one came up a bit softer
  2. #8 – Menacing (6-1): Could be a trainer L. Gaudet Exacta as this lesser half of the uncoupled entry makes first start for barn after $16k claim and makes obligatory step up to ensure this event “went” for stablemate 
  3. #7 – Tattooed (10-1): Made ill-advised first start after 7+ month layoff in MD Million Classic; uh yeah let’s forget that one and point to races earlier in the year as both wins came at this distance

Race 8

  1. #3 – Workaholic (8-5): KY shipper makes fifth career start at as many different venues; is a head short of being 3 for 3 on a fast track and her worst BRIS# of the three is second only to #8 in here
  2. #1 – Belial (4-1): This gray gal appears to have a bright future as she was second best in MD Million Lassie following the same fate to next out, stakes winning stablemate Congrats Gal; should relish the added distance
  3. #8 – Olive Kat (3-1): Giving her a pass on a sloppy track in latest when failed as Post Time favorite which followed an eye-popping maiden score earning an 88 BRIS#; outfit turns to F. Lynch to make amends

Race 9

  1. #4 – Joy Drive (8-5): Returns to the Land of Pleasant living after a half dozen tries at NYRA tracks, mostly against better open claimers than the assembled foes in this event at his favorite distance
  2. #6 – Ten Hut (7-2): Game gelding gives 110% every start but cut back to sprint (8:1-3-0) isn’t ideal for this Closer who seems to take 5 furlongs to get out of 2nd gear but catches a softer group
  3. #3 – Apolodorodedamasco (6-1): Got the ultimate equipment change (gelded) after being claimed 45 days ago by trainer M. Gorham; adds blinkers and gets S. Russell (21% w/ Gorham at Lrl)

Yesterday’s News

  • On Friday, November 16th at Laurel had 9 winners from the 9-race card (4 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD below).
  • Top Selections are 425 for 1466 (28.99%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%). The payoffs of the day’s winners…
    • R1: $3.00
    • R2: $5.00
    • R3: $6.00
    • R4: $17.80
    • R5: $7.20
    • R6: $3.40
    • R7: $3.00
    • R8: $8.40
    • R9: $16.20
  • Of the suggested multi-race wagers, hit the R3-R4 $2 Double returning $51.00 on a $18 wager.
  • BEST BET of the Day (145:48-34-13; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Blow the Whistle (5th race: 2-1 M/L; 5-2 PT) relaxed off the dueling leaders, came four wide nearing the quarter-pole, battled for the lead before pulling clear late to win by three paying $7.20 to WIN, $3.60 to PLACE, and $2.60 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (139:22-25-17; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Mount Travers (8th race: 5-1 M/L; 4-1 PT) circled the turn to be in contention nearing the lane but tired to finish sixth while beaten almost 15 lengths.

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