The GQ Approach – Laurel November 16

by Nov 16, 2018Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing

Laurel Park

First turf race of the 2018 season at Laurel Park. Photo by Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park (w/ live racing every Friday, Saturday and Sunday through May 7, 2017; Post Time 12:30pm EDT), including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Jackpot Pick-5, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

[su_box title=”Today’s Carryovers” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”]

  • Rainbow Pick 6: $3,933
  • Super High 5: $3,367
  • Late Pick 5: none[/su_box]

[su_box title=”GQ’S Tip of the Day” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”][stray-random][/su_box]

[su_box title=”Best Bet of the Day” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”]Race 5 / #8 – Blow the Whistle (2-1)[/su_box]

[su_box title=”Longshot Play of the Day” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”] Race 8 / #11 – Mount Travers (5-1)[/su_box]

[su_box title=”Multi-race Wagers” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”]

  • Race 3 $2 Double 4, 5, 6 w/ 4, 5, 10 ($18.00)
  • Race 6 $0.50 Pick-3 3, 9, 11 w/ 1, 2, 3 w/ 2, 4, 7 ($13.50)

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[su_heading size=”21″ align=”left”]Analysis[/su_heading]

  • Weather: Sunny, high in the mid-40s
  • Races scheduled for the turf: 5th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – GOOD / Turf – OFF
  • Post time: 12:30 p.m. EST

Race 1

  1. #3 — Bye Bye Blues (3-1): Making good use of debut spot, when she ran for $8,000; lightly raced sort has been in the exacta in seven of eight and is two-for-two on off tracks
  2. #10 – Truly Hot (8-1): Like to see trainer Eppler protect this one in second start off $7500 claim; top local pilot McCarthy remains aboard
  3. #8 — Party Rock (5-1): Outer post a positive for speedy type who has bested similar 

Race 2

  1. #4 – Rosy’s Rainbow (9-5): Trainer Sillaman wheels this one back on eight days rest; solid try in last when chasing gate-to-wire winner
  2. #2 – Nightmare (6-1): Infrequent winner drops from N1X company; cutback to 5 1/2 furlongs should suit
  3. #1 – Cocktail Waitress (5-2): Game try in last for Gonzalez trainee who sports a 3:1-1-1 ledger on off tracks; worse than third only once in eight career tries

Race 3 

  1. #1 – Colonel Sharp (3-1): Not too bothered by defeat in last on the lawn for this formful sort who won the Md. Coalition Stakes at the Big T three back
  2. #3 – Something Awesome (7-5): Multiple graded winner owns a class edge on these but has been away six months since last-place finish in G3 Pimlico Special; work tab suggests trainer Corrales has longer bouts in mind, and this runner is nominated to G1 Clark at CD on 11/23
  3. #6 – Sonny Inspired (8-1): Hard hitter ran poorly in last on the grass after trip troubles; return to better form puts this guy in the mix

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Race 4 

  1. #3 – Hey Mabel (4-1): Finds right spot in lucky 13th career start; Prado back in the irons
  2. #12 – Donna’s Delight (15-1): Blinks back on after one-race experiment without; has been second or third in last three tries vs. similar while wearing shades
  3. #5 – Shall Try (12-1): Hillwood homebred drops to bottom; lone dirt try not out of range here

Race 5 is OFF THE TURF

  1. *** BEST BET #8 – Blow the Whistle (2-1) ***: Has thrashed N2X rivals at PEN in last two starts; veteran loves the flat mile trip and an off track (five-for-seven on off tracks)
  2. #1 – Etruscan (9-5): MTO entrant got a big Beyer for show effort in last against $12,500 starters
  3. #12 — Sebray (15-1): Just missed at 34-1 in Md. Million starter last out; that’s been a productive heat, as four to run back have a 4:1-2-1 ledger; will be running on late

Race 6

  1. #5 – Dah Philly (7-5): Enjoy the tasty chalk! Matz trainee drops from $40k level after credible third-place finish
  2. #1 – Colton’s Horseplay (5-1): Ran ok last out vs. special weight rivals at CT; may need to drop one more tick to find winning spot
  3. #2 — Empire Panther (3-1): Drops back to level where she was second two back; in and out form gives pause

Race 7

  1. #2 – Rumor Ridge (9-2): Makes third start off a two-month break and enters following a solid try vs. $260k Delacour trainee; McCarthy remains aboard
  2. #7 – Miss Jak (8-5): Last two are stellar for Gonzalez trainee
  3. #1 – Baccarat Fashion (6-1): Has been second in both tries vs. winners

Race 8 

  1. *** LONGSHOT PLAY #11 – Mount Travers (5-1) ***: Speightstown colt has shown promise in two starts; blinks go on for a runner making second start on Lasix; fourth-place finisher from last, Follow the Dog, ran first and second in two follow-up tries in stakes company
  2. #2 — Invigorous (5-1): Was second to subsequent G1 Hopeful winner Mind Control in debut; toss the last two (one on synthetic, one in which he ditched his jock) and you have a runner who fits nicely here
  3. #1 – Lippi Lorenzo (12-1): Solid try last out when fourth in Md. Million Nursery, and winner just missed in stakes follow-up; rider Pino must have him in the action early

Race 9 

  1. #3 – Mythos (4-1): Sillaman claimback romped last time he was at this level; Carrasco in the irons a good sign
  2. #8 – Pleiadian (9-2): Magee claimback has won two straight and three of four; must contend with challenging outside post
  3. #5 – Tonbo (6-1): Bested open $5k claimers two back; first time in the Farrior barn

Yesterday’s News

  • Thursday racing was canceled. On Sunday, November 11th at Laurel had 7 winners from the 9-race card (3 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD below).
  • Top Selections are 421 for 1457 (28.89%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%). The payoffs of the day’s winners…
    • R1: $2.60
    • R2: $8.80
    • R3: $6.20
    • R4: $4.80
    • R5: xxx
    • R6: $5.40
    • R7: $4.40
    • R8: xxx
    • R9: $4.80
  • Of the suggested multi-race wagers, hit the Race 2 Pick 3, returning $23.50 on a $9.00 wager.
  • BEST BET of the Day (144:47-34-14; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Celtic Treasure (4th race: 5-1 M/L; 4.80-1 PT) stalked along the inside, encountering some trouble on the turn, ran on willingly between runners to earn the show, paying $2.80 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (138:22-26-17; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Free to Trump (2nd race: 8-1 M/L; 17.90-1 PT) broke a step slow and could offer only a mild response to finish fifth.