The GQ Approach – Laurel November 10

by | Nov 10, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing

Laurel Park

First turf race of the 2018 season at Laurel Park. Photo by Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park (w/ live racing every Friday, Saturday and Sunday through May 7, 2017; Post Time 12:30pm EDT), including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Jackpot Pick-5, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: none
  • Super High 5: $5,366
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ'S Tip of the Day
First Time Starter - A decently-bred horse from a good barn showing a consistent (every 6-7 days) work pattern with the last one from the gate can be a good bet.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 3 / #5 – Congrats Gal (8-5)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 9 / #9 – Dalmore (20-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 7 $0.50 Pick-4 4, 7 w/ 5, 6, 7 w/ 3, 5, 9 w/ 3, 4, 11 ($27.00)

Analysis

  • Weather: Sunny, high in the mid-40s
  • Races scheduled for the turf: 10th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – GOOD / Turf – OFF
  • Post time: 12:00 noon

Race 1

  1. #10 — Louise (3-1): Drops to lowest level after having been runner-up in last two dirt tries against slightly better
  2. #11 – Streets On Fire (20-1): Career-best effort came in debut when sprinting; gets back to that game here, sheds blinks, and finds the bottom
  3. #9 — Paz the Wine (2-1): Lands in right spot in 18th career try; has lost ground late in last four dirt tries

Race 2

  1. #3 – Looking Ready (9-5): Aptly named Gonzalez trainee plummets to bottom in third start in the barn; he’s nothing special but looks to have the measure of these
  2. #10 – Gold Bridle (12-1): Decent effort in last, dueling with the winner throughout, and though he lost the race did manage to hold the place; drawn well on the outside and possesses some early zip
  3. #4 – Port Louis (10-1): Not a terrible return to action in last when making first start in over five months; can improve here and adds blinkers

Race 3 is the SMART HALO STAKES

  1. *** BEST BET #5 – Congrats Gal (8-5) ***: Lone defeats came in the G3 Schuylerville and in the White Clay Creek S. at DEL – the latter a runner-up effort behind likely 2yo filly champion Jaywalk; note stellar work tab in preparation for this test
  2. #7 – Mae Never No (3-1): Nobody does better with juveniles than trainer Wesley Ward; of her two defeats, one was on the grass (when third a length) and the other was against boys in the Tremont
  3. #6 – Our Super Freak (4-1): Eeeeaaaaassssy win last out against allowance foes; Ness trainee moving in the right direction

Race 4 

  1. #8 – Tap the Mark (2-1): Slight step up in class off the win for trainer Gonzalez; runner looks like added ground should be no problem
  2. #1a – Charging Lion (12-1): Runner was making a move in the lane in last when absolutely wiped out by an out-of-control rival; shows a couple of decent works since
  3. #7 – Readytotapit (7-2): Got away with easy fractions in last two but couldn’t seal the deal; cutback in distance a plus but might ratchet up the pace pressure

Race 5 is the SAFELY KEPT STAKES

  1. #10 – Estilo Femenino (7-2): Controlling speed will look to carry his zip an added furlong; not too disturbed by defeat in last, as winner Curlin’s Approval is on the edge of being a graded stakes type of horse
  2. #8 – Special Relativity (9-2): Mid-pack sort just missed in last going 6f, figures to like the added ground here
  3. #7 — Prepossessing (30-1): Trainer Runco not in the habit of tilting at windmills; last out victory better than it looks on the page

Race 6

  1. #6 – Crouchelli (7-2): Even effort in last in Md. Million Classic; new rider McCarthy likely to try to put this one in the game a little earlier
  2. #5 – No More Talk (9-5): In a little deep in Md. Million Sprint in last; hasn’t won going two turns, which is a bit of a concern, esp. at expected short odds
  3. #10 — Nakamura (5-2): Breeding suggests versatility for a runner who’s never tried the main track before; nothing wrong with show effort last out in Bald Eagle Derby

Race 7 is the JAMES F. LEWIS, III STAKES

  1. #7 – Follow the Dog (7-2): Improved effort in last when adding blinks and powering to Md. Million Nursery win; has seen a.m. favorite in here twice, finishing ahead of him on debut and then doing so again, this time via DQ, in follow up
  2. #4 – Passcode (5-2): Has split a pair of decisions with choice; impressive last out in graduating under a patient ride with something in reserve; two of his beaten rivals followed up with wins
  3. #5 – Scrap Copper (10-1): Never involved in last after going nose-to-the-ground leaving the gate; better break should yield improved effort

Race 8 is the CITY OF LAUREL STAKES

  1. #7 – Old Time Revival (5-2): Has been butting heads against some rugged rivals and owns two wins at the trip; runner-up effort three back in the Concern a sneaky good one: winner Whereshetoldmetogo followed with another stake win and then was second in G3 Gallant Bob
  2. #5 — Rugbyman (2-1): Makes third start off a bit of a layoff for trainer Motion; cutback could work to his advantage
  3. #6 – Smooth B (12-1): Cruised two back against allowance foes at this trip; last out winner Firenze Fire returned to be fourth in Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile

Race 9 is the RICHARD W. SMALL STAKES

  1. *** LONGSHOT PLAY #9 – Dalmore (20-1) ***: Bombs away! Looch runner’s best efforts put him in the mix with these; may be controlling speed here and last out — going 6f against horses who returned to be second, fourth, and fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint — may set him up perfectly for this
  2. #5 – Unbridled Juan (8-1): Formful sort ran down rival to take Delp Memorial in last; has performed well since switch to Corrales barn
  3. #3 – Tour de Force (10-1): Owns a win at the trip and enters off a score against allowance foes for red-hot Gaudet operation

Race 10 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #3 – Toe Curlin’ Kiss (6-1): MTO graduated last out in first try for trainer Barr; runner-up from last won at CD in follow-up, one of two next-out winners from that event
  2. #4 – Swinging Star (9-5): Two good efforts since Ness claim
  3. #11 – Liberty Lane (5-2): Has run well without getting rewarded since switch to DePaz barn

Yesterday’s News

  • On Friday, November 9th at Laurel had 6 winners from the 9-race card (6 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD below).
  • Top Selections are 416 for 1438 (28.93%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%). The payoffs of the day’s winners…
    • R1: xxx
    • R2: $4.80
    • R3: $9.80
    • R4: $3.00
    • R5: xxx
    • R6: $6.60
    • R7: $3.60
    • R8: $6.20
    • R9: xxx
  • Of the suggested multi-race wagers, the Race 2 Double was hit, returning $21.80 on a $12 wager.
  • BEST BET of the Day (142:46-34-13; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Vorian (2nd race: 5-2 M/L; 7-5 PT) broke slowly, tracked the pace along the inside, got through on the rail and was edging away late to win, paying $4.80 to WIN, $2.40 to PLACE, and $2.10 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (137:22-25-17; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Slewzer (7th race: 5-1 M/L; 4-5 PT) sped to the early lead, raced off the rail, and remained clear while under urging to win by two lengths, returning $3.60 to WIN, $2.60 to PLACE, and $2.10 to SHOW.

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