The GQ Approach – Laurel November 9

by | Nov 9, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing

Laurel Park

First turf race of the 2018 season at Laurel Park. Photo by Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park (w/ live racing every Friday, Saturday and Sunday through May 7, 2017; Post Time 12:30pm EDT), including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Jackpot Pick-5, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: none
  • Super High 5: $5,366
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ'S Tip of the Day
First race on a different surface - Many horses prefer one surface or another, which can reveal itself the first time they try their preferred surface. Bettors can get a clue to this based on pedigree.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 2 / #2 – Vorian (5-2)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 7 / #7 – Slewzer (5-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 2: $2 Double 2, 7 w/ 1, 2, 4 ($12)
  • Race 7 $0.50 Pick-3 2, 3, 7 w/ 3, 6, 11 w/ 4, 8, 11 ($13.50)

Analysis

  • Weather: Rainy, high around 50
  • Races scheduled for the turf: None scheduled
  • Projected track conditions: Main – GOOD / Turf – NONE
  • Post time: 12:30 p.m.

Race 1

  1. #2 — Gotnoquit (7-5): First start in the red-hot Gonzalez barn and drops in half claiming price-wise; go-to rider Torres gets the call
  2. #1 – Buster’s Brother (12-1): Form is inching forward; McCarthy in the irons a plus
  3. #9 — Creepy the Crab (8-1): Possible candidate for lifetime maiden status has been in the money three straight vs. similar

Race 2

  1. #2 – Vorian (5-2): Squeezed back at the break, then checked nearing the turn yet stayed on willingly to the end; shows a decent work since that debut; two more wins yesterday for on-fire Gaudet barn
  2. #7 – Belmont Ride (9-5): Trainer Delacour wins and wins and wins – but note that he’s just one-for-10 with juveniles making their debut for a tag
  3. #1 – Cool Man Cletus (2-1): Has been off six weeks since a disappointing fourth-place finish vs. similar; gelded in the interim

Race 3

  1. #1 – Scout’s Honor (2-1): Likes this trip, drops slightly off a win, and figures to get right pace scenario to run into
  2. #2 – Army Grey (5-2): Has thrashed lesser three straight and may be part of the early vanguard
  3. #4 – Hurler (15-1): Veteran of 80-plus races has done good work at this distance; closer should get a lively pace in front of him

Race 4 

  1. #2 – Gorbachov (7-2): Can tear down wall to victory in fourth start; drops from MC 16k after credible try in last and slight cutback in distance feels like a positive
  2. #7 – Glenn’s Caper (10-1): After too-late arrival going 6f last out and tiring effort at a mile two back, will 7f be just right? Cedeno in the irons a good sign
  3. #4 – Stevie’s Joy (10-1): Closer’s career-high speed fig came at 7f

Race 5

  1. #2 – Given Achance (7-2): First off the claim for trainer Gonzalez, who has a 34% strike rate in that situation; bested never-two rivals in last
  2. #9 – La Zoraya (5-2): Drops to appropriate spot after a pair of credible efforts vs. better; 0-for-5 ledger at trip a slight cause for concern here
  3. #4 — Amazon Lizzie (8-1): Mild rally in last vs. better while getting rail-hugging trip; sluggish start to the meet for trainer Brooks (3-for-40)

Race 6

  1. #3 – Timeless Curls (3-1): Trainer D. Capuano passed on an N2X spot yesterday to land here with improving runner; fits right profile to win this event
  2. #2 – Ransom Past Due (8-1): Useful effort in last when mounting a mild rally last out in first start in 14 months; trainer Kreiser brings go-to pilot Rodriguez with him, and added ground on offer here a positive
  3. #4 — Barley Jack (5-2): Decent effort last out in off-the-turf N2X; after hot start to the year, Rubley barn has been scuffling a bit of late (though monster Breeders’ Cup mile effort of Divisidero had to raise spirits)

Race 7 

  1. #7 – Slewzer (5-1): First time in the Ness barn, and he’ll leg up rider Suarez (jock-trainer combo: 29%); youngster has won three of seven
  2. #2 – Holiday Magician (2-1): Drops to bottom for 25th career start; often in the money but rarely wins; trainer Eppler is 9-for-41 on similar drops
  3. #3 – Kid Croft (5-2): Klesaris trainee has cruised through his conditions to date; main knock is that recent form a bit in-and-out

Race 8

  1. #6 – Bourbonstreetlady (9-2): Tough start to the meet for trainer Maldonado, still hunting first W — but he’s 8-for-20 on big drops like this one, from $16k all the way to the bottom; runner hasn’t been totally overmatched vs. better
  2. #11 — When It Reigns (7-2): First start of ’18 and first time in the Robb barn for this Fiber Sonde filly who broke her maiden by 8 at MC 16k level
  3. #3 – Mais Ou d’Or (10-1): Just enough to hold on in last when graduating in 14th career try; lightbulb theory in play for speedy sort

Race 9

  1. #11 – Myladycharlotte (5-1): Kinda wishing this one were showing more recorded works – but trainer Farrior is 4-for-10 with eight in the money when debuting vs. MCL rivals
  2. #8 – Yesterdaysplan (2-1): Deserving favorite drops to level at which she nearly won on debut
  3. #4 – Lady Nobility (15-1): First-timer from Sweezey barn has some decent works sprinkled through her worktab; modest group gives hope for firster by Noble Mission

Yesterday’s News

  • On Thursday, November 8th at Laurel had 7 winners from the 9-race card (5 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD below).
  • Top Selections are 410 for 1429 (28.69%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%). The payoffs of the day’s winners…
    • R1: $11.60
    • R2: xxx
    • R3: $2.80
    • R4: $4.00
    • R5: $10.80
    • R6: $6.60
    • R7: xxx
    • R8: $7.60
    • R9: $4.80
  • Of the suggested multi-race wagers, none was hit.
  • BEST BET of the Day (141:45-34-13; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) No Picnic (6th race: 2-1 M/L; 2.30-1 PT) was eased back early, came five wide entering the lane, and steadily closed under left-handed urging to get up late, paying $6.60 to WIN, $3.60 to PLACE, and $2.60 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (136:21-25-17; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Sharon’s Thunder (7th race: 10-1 M/L; 7.80-1 PT) was towards the rear early, moved closer on the turn while hugging the rail, came four wide for the drive and had a mild response to be third, returning $5.20 to SHOW.

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