The GQ Approach – Laurel November 8

by | Nov 8, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing

Laurel Park

First turf race of the 2018 season at Laurel Park. Photo by Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park (w/ live racing every Friday, Saturday and Sunday through May 7, 2017; Post Time 12:30pm EDT), including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Jackpot Pick-5, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: none
  • Super High 5: none
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ'S Tip of the Day
Not in for a tag - In many states there is a rule where if a horse last raced 6+ months ago, it can be entered in a race at the same claiming level or higher than its last race WITHOUT having the risk of losing the horse via Claim. It's often a positive sign if a trainer chooses to waive the claiming price - and a negative one if s/he runs for the tag.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 6 / #7 – No Picnic (2-1)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 7 / #7 – Sharon’s Thunder (10-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 6: $0.50 Pick-4 7 w/ 4, 5, 7 w/ 1, 7, 9 w/ 4, 8, 9 ($13.50)
  • Race 8: $2 Double 1, 7, 9 w/ 4, 8, 9 ($18)

Analysis

  • Weather: Partly cloudy, high in the mid-50s
  • Races scheduled for the turf: 1st, 3rd, 5th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST / Turf – OFF
  • Post time: 12:30 p.m.

Race 1 is OFF the turf

  1. #9 Firth (6-1): L. Gaudet trainee makes third start off a three-month break after a pair of credible outings; has run well at trip, and Gaudet barn hot right now; may be controlling speed here
  2. #13 – Justa Scoch (10-1): Bested DEL allowance foes in last
  3. #6 — Beyond Forever (15-1): Solid win in last when rallying despite utter lack of early pace

Race 2

  1. #7 – Mrs. Rembrandt (7-2): Defeated similar in last and owns three wins at the trip; 3yo one of three sophs in here who has more than allowed three wins
  2. #2 – Splendor Gal (4-1): Obliterated rivals in off-the-turf contest in last in front-running fashion in what was first two-turn try on main track
  3. #6 – Greasedlightning (3-1): Rallied to lead before tiring in latest; must find a way to turn tables on #7 here

Race 3 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #9 – Glance (10-1): Solid try to be runner-up in similar circumstances last out
  2. #7 – Wolverette (6-1): Has some OK efforts but has had plenty of cracks to graduate
  3. #2x – Miss Aliphant (10-1): Third off a five-month break for this Eppler trainee who draws in off the AE

Race 4 

  1. #5 – Time for Quality (9-2): Perkins trainee ships in from MTH for first start in over three months; lightly raced 6yo (!) has fired fresh before and gets McCarthy in the irons
  2. #9 – Colonel Andy (2-1): Plummets from $16k level for trainer Magee, who strikes at 39% of similar drops; note that rider McCarthy lands on #5
  3. #1a – Man of Wiregrass (9-2): Other Magee entrant gets Cedeno in the irons (jock-trainer combo: 39%) and makes first start off the claim

Race 5 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #7 – Pretti Tricki (15-1): Should appreciate class relief here and Vargas in the irons a positive sign
  2. #4 – Rosy’s Rainbow (7-2): MTO entrant ran credibly at this level last out and likely catches an easier group here
  3. #6 — Pass a Mento (6-1): Galloped vs. $25k maidens in last; makes first start vs. winners here and not expecting as easy a trip as last time when loose on the lead

Race 6

  1. *** BEST BET #7 – No Picnic (2-1) ***: Zulueta claimback for $40k three back crushed rivals at this level at PRX last out; owns three wins at tricky 7f trip
  2. #4 – Deep Red (5-1): Hard-trying sort has been stakes-placed twice at the distance; useful return to action last out when chasing 6-5 winner gamely despite early trip troubles
  3. #6 — Pretty Enuff (8-1): Ran second vs. similar last out

Race 7 

  1. *** LONGSHOT PLAY #7 – Sharon’s Thunder (10-1) ***: Komlo trainee never asked in latest and still finished just a couple behind favorite in here; has been in the money 13 of 20 despite just one win
  2. #5 – Lady Scholar (5-1): Trainer Sweezey adds Lasix for first time following graduation last out; lightbulb theory in play after scoring at bottom level
  3. #4 – Petticoatsnpistols (5-2): Added ground should work to this Leatherbury trainee’s advantage; owns a win at the trip

Race 8

  1. #1 – Tiz He the One (5-1): Makes second start off a four-month break after solid score last out; runner-up took down the N1X condition in follow-up; cuts right profile to win here
  2. #9 – Divine Interventio (5-1): Good setup in last netted easy score
  3. #7 — Measured (6-1): Frequent starting gate issues have been a problem, though last out may have aided cause as early pace completely melted down; like to see rider Wolfsont make the trip

Race 9

  1. #9 – Glengar (8-5): Might be a race where you just need to eat the chalk; Magee trainee makes aggressive two-level drop here after credible effort at MSW level; runner-up from last graduated at CD in follow-up
  2. #4 – Arrive in Style (7-2): Two tries at PRX have been pretty dismal, but last two in Maryland just fine and certainly compete with these
  3. #8 – Art of Listening (10-1): Huh? (Sorry, couldn’t resist). Trimble trainee finds lowest level to date, but in just third start; can compete with these

Yesterday’s News

  • On Saturday, November 3rd at Laurel had 6 winners from the 9-race card (3 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD below).
  • Top Selections are 405 for 1420 (28.52%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%). The payoffs of the day’s winners…
    • R1: xxx
    • R2: $3.20
    • R3: $6.00
    • R4: $20.00
    • R5: $5.80
    • R6: $9.20
    • R7: xxx
    • R8: xxx
    • R9: $27.80
  • Of the suggested multi-race wagers, none was hit.
  • BEST BET of the Day (140:44-34-13; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Cinderela El Crome (7th race: 5-2 M/L; 3-1 PT) chased the pace two wide and faded to be fifth.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (135:21-25-16; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Jai Blue (9th race: 15-1 M/L; 16-1 PT) dueled for the lead, put a head in front turning for home, and faded to be seventh.

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