The GQ Approach – Laurel November 4

by | Nov 4, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing

Laurel Park

First turf race of the 2018 season at Laurel Park. Photo by Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park (w/ live racing every Friday, Saturday and Sunday through May 7, 2017; Post Time 12:30pm EDT), including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Jackpot Pick-5, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $24,077
  • Super High 5: $343
  • Late Pick 5: $3,484
GQ'S Tip of the Day
Not in for a tag - In many states there is a rule where if a horse last raced 6+ months ago, it can be entered in a race at the same claiming level or higher than its last race WITHOUT having the risk of losing the horse via Claim. It's often a positive sign if a trainer chooses to waive the claiming price - and a negative one if s/he runs for the tag.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 7 / #5 – Cinderela El Crome (5-2)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 9 / #8 – Jai Blue (15-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1: $2 Double 7, 12, 13 w/ 3, 4, 7 ($18)
  • Race 7: $0.50 Pick-3 5, 7, 8 w/ 2, 8, 10 w/ 2, 4, 8 ($13.50)

Analysis

  • Weather: Sunny, high in the mid-50s
  • Races scheduled for the turf: 1st, 4th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST / Turf – OFF
  • Post time: 12:30 p.m.

Race 1 is OFF the turf

  1. #7 Belle ‘n Tonic (6-1): MTO entrant has been competitive two straight vs. similar and catches easiest group of last three; kinda wishing this were a one-turn mile, but…
  2. #12 – Petion Lass (20-1): Graduated easily last out and light bulb theory could be in play; step up in claiming price but no real killers in this group
  3. #13 — Lulu’s On the Move (8-1): Second last out in similar circumstances in the faster of two divisions of a split race

Race 2

  1. #4 – Summer Fling (8-5): Makes third start off a layoff in this tilt – and third in a month; Trombetta barn red-hot of late
  2. #3 – Brushing (3-1): Trainer Smith is 5-for-24 bringing horses back off long layoffs like this one’s nine-month break; blinks go on, and this is a level below where she was running previously
  3. #7 – Bash (7-5): Maryland-bred makes second start off a five-month break here, and trainer Voss adds blinks; drops into claiming company for first time

Race 3

  1. #5 – The Great Casby (5-2): Trainer Ness has a 22% strike rate bringing runners back on less than 10 days rest; addition of rider McCarthy a plus
  2. #1 – Gold Man (8-5): Showed little in last vs. better but looks like a gate-to-wire threat here
  3. #3 – Double Whammy (2-1): Loves Laurel, and loves this mile trip; rising off a win for trainer Magee but note that last out rider McCarthy jumps ship — to #5 in here

Race 4 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #9 – Simonela (10-1): Not hating that last effort, when thrown in deep against ultra-well-bred winner Alfresco and Positivist, who returned to score last week at LRL; nothing like those two in this group
  2. #5 – Princess Rosie (12-1): Just two starts to date, leaving her plenty of room for improvement; third vs. similar in last
  3. #13 – Darter (2-1): Caught a good group on the lawn in last; not the case here today

Race 5

  1. #6 – Young American (3-1): Good effort in last could presage a return to better form for this runner who’s been plagued by in-and-out form; Gonzalez-C. Carrasco combo clicking at 36%
  2. #3 – Pacific Ridge (12-1): Returns on short rest for third start off a five-month break; addition of rider Acosta a plus
  3. #7 — Awesome Standard (4-1): Keefe trainee competed at this level last out

Race 6

  1. #6 – Enchanted Ghost (5-1): Halloween hunch play? Stakes winner earlier this year had an absolutely useful return to action last out when returning from eight-month vacation; trainer Smith is 13 percent on second-off-layoff
  2. #4 – Hailey’s Flip (9-5): Four-time winner at this 6f trip has been butting heads with some tough customers this year: Crabcakes, Shimmering Aspen, Lake Ponchatrain, Angel At War; but she’s maybe an inch not as good as she was a year ago, too
  3. #2 — Discreet Deceit (3-1): Has been second in each of last two vs. similar; makes second start after a two-month break

Race 7 

  1. *** BEST BET #5 – Cinderela El Crome (5-2) ***: Flashstorm gelding has done nothing but run good races since switch to Ness barn; was one of five (!) next out winners from two-back allowance tilt, and one of three to run back from last also has won; McCarthy in the irons a positive
  2. #7 – Mr. Brix (3-1): Gonzalez barn 34 percent first off the claim
  3. #8 – Tale of E Dubai (5-1): Trainer Patterson winning at 44 percent rate this year; speedster should be on the engine early and loves this trip

Race 8

  1. #8 – Ticker Tape Parade (3-1): Competed at this level four back and has been running vs. better of late; big but appropriate class drop here, likely to look for stalk-and-pounce trip
  2. #10 – Sound Off (5-2): Takes a drop to bottom after so-so tries vs. better
  3. #7 — Stay On Point (6-1): First time off the claim by trainer Abramson; fits with these

Race 9

  1. *** LONGSHOT PLAY #8 – Jai Blue (15-1) ***: Nice little paid workout in last when flashing speed before backing out; now at distance and level at which he’s competed before
  2. #4 – No Drinking Rules (5-2): Drops a half-step off perfectly acceptable effort; could be a handful in here
  3. #2 – Patriot Saint (4-1): Hard to endorse on top with unsightly 2-for-38 ledger, but gave decent account of himself in last against similar on return from two-month break

Yesterday’s News

  • On Saturday, November 3rd at Laurel had 10 winners from the 11-race card (5 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD below).
  • Top Selections are 402 for 14 (28.49%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%). The payoffs of the day’s winners…
    • R1: $2.60
    • R2: $3.00
    • R3: $7.60
    • R4: $6.20
    • R5: $7.80
    • R6: $8.80
    • R7: $39.40
    • R8: $10.20
    • R9: xxx
    • R10: $7.40
    • R11: $13.00
  • Of the suggested multi-race wagers, hit the R3-R5 50 cent Pick-3 for $26.65 ($13.50).
  • BEST BET of the Day (139:44-34-13; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Queen Francis (10th race: 3-1 M/L; 5-2 PT) angled to the inside to set the pace and dug in under steady encouragement through the lane to hold on well to win by one-and-three-quarter-lengths and returned $7.40 to WIN, $4.20 to PLACE and $2.80 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (134:21-25-16; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Cherokee Fire (3rd race: 15-1 M/L; 42-1 PT) picked for the turf but this contest was switched to main track. Raced well back while mostly saving ground, never threatening to finish eighth.

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