The GQ Approach – Laurel November 1

by | Nov 1, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing | 0 comments

Laurel Park

First turf race of the 2018 season at Laurel Park. Photo by Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park (w/ live racing every Friday, Saturday and Sunday through May 7, 2017; Post Time 12:30pm EDT), including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Jackpot Pick-5, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $15,448
  • Super High 5: no carryover
  • Late Pick 5: no carryover
GQ'S Tip of the Day
Exits a “Key” Race - A “key” race is one where two or more horses came back to win in their next race, and horses coming out of the races often ran better than the figs might suggest.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 7 / #2 – Under a Spell (5-2)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 9 / #1 – Lubricus Soror (6-1)

Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 4: $0.50 Pick-3 2, 9, 14 w/ 5, 6, 8 w/ 2, 4, 6 ($13.50)
  • Race 7: $0.50 Pick-3 2 w/ 3, 6, 8 w/ 1, 5, 12 ($4.50)
  • Race 8: $2 Double 3, 6 w/ 1, 5, 12 ($12)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly sunny; high in the 70s
  • Projected track conditions: fast main track, good turf

Race 1 is on the turf

  1. #10 – Asset Allocation (5-1): Gets back to best game on the green stuff here after a pair of messy off-the-turf starts; runner-up from last turf try won first allowance and then LRL Dash S. in next two
  2. #12 – Zen’s Land (8-5): Trainer Ness willing to let this grass specialist go for cheap as turf season nears end
  3. #6 – My Own Lane (8-1): Isn’t far removed from defeating better; must return to best form, but drop in class a positive

Race 2

  1. #3 – Oy to the World (2-1): Drops a step after even effort on debut; can improve here
  2. #7 – Top Hat Warrior (9-5): First time in McMahon barn; runner just missed twice vs. similar at DEL, with two back winner repeating vs. better
  3. #5 – Trion Wings (4-1): Just missed at MC25k level two back in a race that produced two next-out winners

Race 3

  1. #7 – Lady Vicki (4-1): Ultra-game effort in last to secure second straight win after giving up lead, getting bumped in mid-stretch, then finding more
  2. #1 – Love’s Legend (8-5): Steady sort returns to main track; winner from two-back show effort tried stakes company in follow-up before winning ALW
  3. #4 – Sarah’s Treasure (7-2): Trouble line in last but still rallied willingly against similar; hot rider Pimentel back in the irons a plus

Race 4 is ON THE TURF

  1. #2 – Smile for Eternity (5-2): Has kept plus company while trying N2X and stakes foes among last three starts; little bit easier group here may help
  2. #14 – Wet Your Whistle (4-1): Should be running on late on the cutback; turf form competes with these
  3. #9 – Thunder’s Honor (6-1): Makes third start off a layoff and gets back to the lawn where he’s done best work

Race 5

  1. #5 – Any Darn Day (5-1): Somebody’s got to win here… right? Egan trainee can improve in second off a short break
  2. #8 – Via Castagna (3-1): Has been inching forward and drops a half-step here off a third-place finish
  3. #6 – Petion Night (7-2): Huge improvement in last – the result of first time on the turf, or merely the yearlong break? Note that new trainer Ness switches back to main track here

Race 6

  1. #6 – Olympic Village (7-2): Good enough debut when rallying for fifth despite running greenly in lane; Trombetta trainee galloped out past ’em all
  2. #2 – Into Temptation (5-2): Can’t leave a Delacour-trained $850k auction purchase off your tickets, now can you? Into Mischief colt is bred to be a beast on the synthetic – for whatever that’s worth – but sibs’ main-track efforts aren’t bad either
  3. #4 – Candy Store (6-1): Motion-trained debut runner is the first foal out of a stakes-winning Flower Alley mare

Race 7

  1. *** BEST BET #2 – Under a Spell (5-2) ***: Goldberg trainee caught a beast on debut, running behind Magnum Moon, who won four straight, culminating with G1 Ark. Derby triumph; graduated last out, and runner-up Positivist graduated here the other day
  2. #10 – Toe Curlin’ Kiss (15-1): Lightly raced sort cruised last out in first in Barr barn; Centeno and Barr hitting at nearly 30 percent
  3. #9 – Southern Wild (12-1): Showed little in two PRX tries, but this Rubley trainee is 2-for-2 locally

Race 8

  1. #3 – Abbo (9-2): Union Rags filly gets major class relief after trip to KEE to run in G1 Alcibiades, the winner of which is 9-2 on the morning line for the BC Juvenile Fillies on Friday; two runners this one beat in maiden score graduated next out 
  2. #6 – Jennifer’s Dream (2-1): Gets blinks on after debut victory, and the only runner she faced who’s run back won her follow-up; trainer Servis a win machine
  3. #8 – Gardenista (3-1): Debut victory couldn’t have been any easier, though not sure what was behind her, as runner-up returned to be second in CT maiden event; Delacour and Centeno win at 33% clip

Race 9 is ON THE TURF

  1. *** LONGSHOT PLAY #1 – Lubricus Soror (6-1) ***: Runner was up close and inside last out on a day when outside and closing was the right answer, was eased from about the 3/8ths; return to two-back form puts her right there
  2. #5 – Storm Raven (5-2): Return to turf and added ground from middling debut are pluses, and easier company should help, too
  3. #12 – Watchin the Wheels (4-1): First time on turf should be a positive, as should easier company; note that pilot from last, Vargas, jumps to #5 here

Yesterday’s News

  • On Saturday, October 27, had 5 winners from 10 races, (2 top picks in bold).
  • Top Selections are 392 for 1381 (28.39%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%). The payoffs of the day’s winners…
    • R1: $5.40
    • R2: xxx
    • R3: $3.60
    • R4: xxx
    • R5: $15.80
    • R6: xxx
    • R7: $6.00
    • R8: xxx
    • R9: $3.60
    • R10: xxx
  • Of the suggested multi-race wagers, did not hit any.
  • BEST BET of the Day (136:43-33-11; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Team Tim (5th race: 5-2 M/L; 5-2 PT) gave chase two wide and rallied for third, beaten one length, returning $2.10 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (131:21-25-15; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Kingston Pike (8th race: 12-1 M/L; 13-1 PT) was between foes early, angled wide for the drive, and closed to earn the show dough while beaten by 1 1/4 lengths, returning $6.40 to show.

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