The GQ Approach – Laurel October 27

by | Oct 27, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Laurel Park

First turf race of the 2018 season at Laurel Park. Photo by Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live Fall racing meet, Post Time 12:35 pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $11,141
  • Super High 5: none
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Jockey and/or Trainer “upgrade” - When a higher-win-percentage jockey takes the mount over for one “less successful” in his/her trade, the horse may take a step forward. The same goes when a new trainer has a notably better record than the prior trainer.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 8/ #4 – Tybalt (3-1)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 6 /#2 – Pacific Ridge (12-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double: 3, 8 w/ 2, 4 ($8)
  • Race 3 – 50 cent Pick 3: 2, 4, 6 w/ 2, 3, 6 w/ 1, 3, 11 ($13.50)
  • Race 9 – $2 Double: 2, 3 w/ 2, 4, 9 ($12)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Cloudy, high in the mid-50s
  • Scheduled turf races: 1st, 2nd, 5th, 10th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – SLOPPY / Turf – OFF

1st Race Post Time 12:35pm EDT

Race 1 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #8 – Katie’s Reward (4-1): Controlling speed should have it all her own way in the slop just as she did in her only previous start on an off track
  2. #3 – Lonely Drifter (6-1): Will try to apply pressure to top pick but M. Pino has been around long enough as not to be the Sacrificial Lamb for others
  3. #6 – Expect a Kitten (7-2): Turf runner stays in for a check; will be first start on an off track and just might like it; has worked in the slop and appears didn’t hate it

Race 2 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #2 – Stella Nova (5-1): MTO entry is 1 for 1 on an off track which came here, barely holding on at this distance
  2.  #4 – Enterprise Value (5-2): Another MTO who has handled the slop in the past (2:1-0-1); fires bullets in the A.M. over tracks listed as “good”
  3. #12 – Le Weekend (12-1): Comes off dull effort against better foes following a pair of wins in contests which resemble this one more so; 1 for 2 on an off track

Race 3

  1. #4 – Moxie (9-5): Strange move to drop in for this nickel off $16k claim for trainer K. Magee who has been successful at a 28% clip with similar moves
  2. #2 – Gfour (5-1): Multi-level class drop as she hasn’t been close since layoff, losing by double-digits in last three outings
  3. #6 – Cherished Prize (10-1): Just 1 for 23 lifetime but 1 for 2 on an off track which it should be following heavy, overnight rain in the area

Race 4

  1. #2 – Our Super Freak (3-1): Hunch play for Rick James fans but is a legit runner who ran back to second career race speed fig in both races with Lasix
  2. #6 – Olive Kat (2-1): Big improvement in second start earning best BRIS# (88) among the gals in this contest; quick turn-around as that performance came just 15 days ago
  3. #3 – Getouttamyway (9-2): Impressive debut without Lasix  in Prx slop but regressed in second start when sent off even money favorite and on Lasix    

Race 5 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #11 – Danz a Rebel (7-5): Nice improvement in second start to be runner-up when equipped with blinkers following SHOW effort in debut behind next out MD Million Nursery winner
  2. #1 – Gearhead (6-5): Gets blinkers to put a bit more early lick into him as he’s been slow getting into stride; much the second best when beaten favorite in last outing  
  3.  #3 – Wowza Man (15-1): KY-bred FTS by Arch out of an Elusive Quality mare for trainer W. Potts (9% w/ FTS); consistent worktab since mid-July shows ability to handle off track in A.M.

Race 6

  1. #2 – Pacific Ridge (12-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Only runner in here who has been facing open claimers in last two; not a horrible effort in first off claim as he had traffic issues; nice off track record (11:3-2-1)
  2. #5 – Goodbyeseeulater (9-2): Speed capable of taking this group from gate-to-wire; top CT jock and regular rider G. Almodover comes in for only mount on the card  
  3. #8 – Howboutthecowboys (8-1): First start since trainer T. Iannotti claim for $6,250; does just fine on an off track (9:2-1-2) but hasn’t faced this level in a while; will benefit from off the pace running style versus these

Race 7

  1. #5 – Poplar Avenue (4-1): Barn must have done a rain dance as this gray gelding hasn’t hit the board on a fast track but it’s a different story on an off track (5:1-2-1)
  2. #8 – Salinger (2-1): Been knocking on the door versus N2L at Del since maiden win in Mth slop; cut back in distance and reunited with T. McCarthy
  3. #6 – Don On the Move (6-1): Trainer/owner T. Grams must like this one to have tried him on Lrl turf in debut, then kept him home (CT) to break maiden; returns with regular rider O. Flores for only mount on card

Race 8

  1. #4 – Tybalt (3-1): *** BEST BET *** Two turn try when sent off as favorite didn’t go as planned as he weakened late; cut back to sprint should help him make amends
  2. #7 – Invigorous (3-1): Minor stakes on synthetic at Pid may have been too much to ask following maiden win in Mth slop
  3. #2 – Partisan Divide (20-1): Won only main track start from three career outings and that one came in an off the turfd contest; same scenario today with this gray son of Paddy O’Prado 

Race 9

  1. #2 – Autobahn Express (3-1): Runner-up behind next out winner versus similar at Prx when rally fell short going 6 furlongs; added distance will help; third start after brief layoff
  2. #3 – I’m Listening (9-2): Much the second best after stretch duel in latest; had excuses two back in only off track effort that saw winner and third-place finisher win their next start
  3. #5 – Cocktail Waitress (7-2): First start after trainer C. Gonzalez for $16k who gets runners in this scenario to Winners’ Circle at a 34% clip… that’s all you need to know

Race 10 is OFF THE TURF

  1.  #9 – Confessor (6-1): Off the turf works in his favor as best effort of career came in Lrl slop, runner-up at 25-1 after a horrible start
  2.  #4 – Dynamic Kid (4-1): Home/MD-bred FTS by Lemon Drop Kid out of a Deputy Minister mare gets the right distance for debut and should handle an off track if the Lrl main oval has dried out by this time; trainer M. Trombetta will give a leg up to “go to” rider J. Pimentel
  3. #2 – Biz Nasty (3-1): Makes fourth career start for third different conditioner as this one (C. Gonzalez) wins 26% of the time, first time saddling his runners

Yesterday’s News

  • On Friday October 26th at Laurel had 4 winners from the 10-race card (2 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD below).
  • Top Selections are 387 for 1361 (28.43%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%). The payoffs of the day’s winners…
    • R1: $4.80
    • R2: xxx
    • R3: xxx
    • R4: xxx
    • R5: $5.00
    • R6: xxx
    • R7: $4.80
    • R8: $5.60
    • R9: xxx
    • R10: xxx
  • Of the suggested multi-race wagers, none were hit.
  • BEST BET of the Day (135:43-33-11; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Astounding (7th race: 3-1 M/L; 7-5 PT) set a pedestrian pace for the first half along the rail, continued that way into the far turn, responded willingly when asked to pick up the pace entering the stretch when facing mild pressure, sprinted clear in the stretch under strong urging to win going away and returned $4.80 to WIN, $3.80 to PLACE and $3.20 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (130:21-25-15; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Coqueta (6th race: 6-1 M/L; 7-2 PT) three wide between rivals leaving the far turn, was under a strong ride mid turn but failed to make an impact to finished eighth.

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