The GQ Approach – Laurel October 25

by | Oct 25, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing | 0 comments

Laurel Park

First turf race of the 2018 season at Laurel Park. Photo by Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live Fall racing meet, Post Time 12:35 pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $7,016
  • Super High 5: none
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Cutback in distance - Running a route race (1 mile or more) can improve a horse's fitness and help him learn to relax; it can also lead to a big effort when shortening up to a sprint.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 8/ #13 – Keep Your Distance (2-1)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 4 /#2 – Rapidashcat (15-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double: 4, 5, 7 w/ 8, 10 ($12)
  • Race 3 – 50 cent Pick 3: 1, 5, 7 w/ 2, 7, 10 w/ 5, 7, 8 ($13.50)
  • Race 9 – $2 Double: 3, 7 w/ 7, 8 ($8)

Analysis

  • Weather: Partly Cloudy, high in the mid-50s
  • Scheduled turf races: 1st, 2nd, 5th, 6th, 8th, 10th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST / Turf – GOOD

1st Race Post Time 12:35pm EDT

Race 1 is ON THE TURF

  1. #5 – Romantic Babe (5-2): Rare Bel-shipper for trainer D. Donk (1:0-0-1 at Lrl past year) on  multi-class drop, has positive ROI with this scenario
  2. #4 – Wiggle Room (15-1): Weakened late going 6 furlongs on turf at this level yet still just 3-lengtsh behind winner when 57-1
  3. #7 – Feelin Foxie (3-1): Adds blinkers after woeful one-mile dirt try at Del in first start for L. Gaudet barn following maiden win on turf in $40kMCL for trainer T. Proctor 

Race 2 is ON THE TURF

  1. #8 – Makeanentrance (7-2): Runner-up when shipped to Suf on big class drop after a trio of dreadful turf tries at each of the NYRA turf courses getting no love at the window (60-1 & up)
  2. #10 – Guthries Collar (12-1): Misbehaved in the gate prior to fourth-place effort when he flattened out in the stretch; worth another shot in here 
  3.  #5 – Iwishiwasspecial (10-1): Finally gets back on turf following mixed results on dirt; F. Boyce stays on which is usually a good sign that this runner has promise

Race 3

  1. #7 – Untaken (9-5): Nice late rally fell a half-length short in this same condition as today; seeks first win of ’18 in 11th start as she’s had Seconditis at Lrl (4:0-4-0)
  2. #1 – Unlucky Hillary (6-1): Makes third start after brief layoff while exiting a nose loss as Post Time choice which must have been a weak group coming off a fourth-place finish when 3+ behind top pick in here 
  3. #5 – Setubal (5-1): Expecting a better effort than in latest when this gray couldn’t muster a rally; gets an additional 1/16th and could find herself on early lead with chance to go gate-to-wire

Race 4

  1.   #2 – Rapidashcat (15-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Second start with blinkers often results in positive returns; was steadied in latest when dropping a level off dull effort in slop at Del
  2. #7 – Unequivocal (3-1): Beaten favorite as rally fell short by less than a length when traveling a furlong shorter than he will today 
  3. #10 – Drosselmoon (5-1): Gets blinkers after a rough start in minor stakes which came off the turf, his first main track start, fairing no worse than his turf outings; recent bullet work obviously was with the blinkers

Race 5 is ON THE TURF

  1. #5 – Joseph (8-1): Fragile 6-year-old takes time off between each of three starts this year and continues to drop; change of rider may be able to boot him home
  2. #8 – Indian Bucks (8-1): Loves the Lrl lawn (15: 5-1-2) but takes best step up after trainer D. Clarke nabbed him for $5k out of latest at Suf; like his tenacity at this distance
  3. #7 – My Enigma (6-1): Regular ride of top pick opts for this one as possible good business decision to get more mounts following an off the turf runner-up on this gelding versus better; being offered for $2k less to get 2 lbs. break in a sprint?

Race 6 is ON THE TURF

  1. #3 – Lovely Games (7-2): Quite aggressive towards a foe in latest turf outing which was four starts back getting SHOW purse; always gets a minor share but time to get picture taken in 23rd start
  2. #4 – Valley Cal (15-1): BRIS# numbers climbing and much better on turf while having excuses in last two; rider switch can’t hurt, can it?
  3. #9 – Fleet Admiral (3-1): Best finish (runner-up) of 16 career efforts in latest in Lrl turf debut; both winner and third-place finish came back to win next outing 

Race 7

  1.   #8 – Forced (7-2): 3-year-old faces elders for first time but the way he flies out of the starting gate, he may not even notice; shouldn’t get much pressure early which will help him late 
  2. #10 – Polar Jet (5-2): Tough customer at this distance (6:3-2-0) exits turf sprint debut after 4-month layoff for trainer L. Rice who gets 28% to Winners’ Circle with turf-to-dirt angle
  3.  #11 – Cousin Jimmy (10-1): Earned an impressive 89 BRIS# when breaking maiden in latest in an off the turf $40kMCL sprint; can make it two in a row with a duplicate effort

Race 8 is ON THE TURF

  1. #13 – Keep Your Distance (2-1): *** BEST BET *** Will have too much early speed from this great outside post as there isn’t another in here who could or would challenge her early; has won last four Lrl starts but all in off the turf events; being able to dictate moderate early fractions leaves plenty in the tank late
  2.   #1 – Not in Jeopardy (6-1): Draw a line through latest on main oval; returns to turf sprinting where she’s been part of Trifecta n each effort (3:1-0-2) 
  3.   #4 – Misericordia (3-1): Exits a fifth-place effort in minor turf stakes here last month when stuck on the rail and encountering traffic; expect a better result with a clean trip 

Race 9

  1. #3 – Tidy Stripe (5-2): Lightbulb Theory in affect as she graduated from maiden ranks when dropped to bottom level and won easily, earning best last race BRIS# of this bunch
  2. #7 – Theorem (3-1): Been getting minor awards in higher level races at Prx and Mth but not necessarily better competition; note she doesn’t care for an off track which were the last two
  3. #1 – Petticoatsnpistols (7-2): Just 1 for 19 but was finally dropped to this level in latest with a legit chance to get win, but could only manage to be second best 

Race 10 is ON THE TURF

  1.  #8 – Looking Ready (3-1): More Than Ready gelding has underachieved on turf so far (6:0-0-1) but all have been against much better; fourth in a G3 and SHOWed in minor stakes, both going long with early speed sets up nicely for sprinting
  2.  #7 – Generalist (9-2): Couldn’t compete against better in sloppy Lrl debut following trainer H. McMahon claim for $25k; gives turf a second try as he ran well going one-mile after breaking through gate prior to that one
  3. #2 – Zig Zillion (7-2): Claimed from last effort when runner-up as even money Post Time choice; connections wait out jail time to return in same condition but this time he gets to run on grass

Yesterday’s News

  • On Sunday October 21st at Laurel had 7 winners from the 10-race card (53 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD below).
  • Top Selections are 385 for 1341 (28.73%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%). The payoffs of the day’s winners…
    • R1: $10.40
    • R2: $16.40
    • R3: $13.60
    • R4: $4.80
    • R5: xxx
    • R6: $9.40
    • R7: xxx
    • R8: $2.80
    • R9: $4.60
    • R10: xxx
  • Of the suggested multi-race wagers, hit the R1-R2 $2 Double paid $112.80.
  • BEST BET of the Day (133:42-33-11; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Mesotherm (8th race: 8-5 M/L; 2-5 PT) bobbled at the break, recovered and accelerated to contention, vied outside a rival, then went clear, set a rated pace off the rail around the turn, opened up under a drive past the eighth pole, drew away to win by six-and-one-half lengths and returned $2.80 to WIN, $2.10 to PLACE and $2.10 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (128:21-25-15; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Raging Blaze (4th race: 8-1 M/L; 6-1 PT) sped clear, set the pace towards the rail, was joined past the eighth pole and continued on willingly to be well clear of the rest and returned $5.00 to PLACE and $2.80 to SHOW.

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