The GQ Approach – Laurel October 20

by | Oct 20, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing | 0 comments

Laurel Park

First turf race of the 2018 season at Laurel Park. Photo by Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live Fall racing meet, Post Time 12:35 pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $3,509.52
  • Super High 5: $1,168.63
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Subtle Class Drop - Some class drops -- e.g. from OPEN Claiming to Conditional Claiming for same Tag/Amount -- are bigger than they look, and horses making that move may hold a distinct advantage over their rivals.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 9/ #2 – My Star Potential (2-1)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 11 /#1 – Crouchelli (10-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double: 2, 8, 12 w/ 1, 2 ($12)
  • Race 3 – 50 cent Pick 3: 4, 6, 7 w/ 5, 7, 9 w/ 1, 2, 6 ($13.50)
  • Race 7 – 20 cent Pick 6: 1, 2, 4 w/ 4, 5, 11 w/ 2 w/ 2, 11 w/ 1, 4, 9 w/ 10, 11 ($21.60)
  • Race 11 – $2 Double: 1, 4, 9 w/ 10, 11 ($12)

Analysis

  • Selections BEFORE SCRATCHES
  • Weather: Mostly Cloudy, high in the low-60s
  • Scheduled turf races: 2nd, 4th, 7th, 10th, 12th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST / Turf – GOOD

1st Race Post Time 12:00pm EDT

Race 1 is the Distaff Starter Hcp

  1.   #2 – Hashtag Selfie (3-1): Banking on the Lrl dirt oval to be speed favoring as it typically is on a normal Saturday (hint), so right out of the box with 6 wins on a fast track from 11 starts, each making every pole a winning one, this gal gets the nod
  2. #12 – No More Excuses (7-2): Another speedster who but exclusively in sprints so getting the 7 furlongs might be a stretch; trainer K. Magee and jock J. Vargas, Jr. have been getting to Winners’ Circle at a 28% clip this meet. 
  3. #8 – Truly Hot (7-2): Claimed out of an open claimer in latest by trainer M. Eppler when rally fell short to #12 in here who was loose on the lead going 1/16th shorter; gets jock upgrade 

Race 2 is the Distaff Starter Hcp ON TURF

  1. #2 – Include a Check (3-1): Has met the ML favorite #1 a few times but never able to pass her in the stretch; that could change based on anticipated contentious early pace as this mare gets first run at the leg weary front-runners turning for home 
  2. #1 – Participate (9-5): Have more than a rooting interest in this one who went gate-to-wire in first race after trainer D. Worton claim for Wasabi; won this event last year in same manner but will likely be pressured early unlike last year 
  3. #6 – Oh So Lovely (12-1): A tall task for a turf sprinter to stretch out to 9 furlongs but she has the pedigree to get the distance; should be in mid-pack early and rally in the stretch if she has the necessary stamina

Race 3 is the MD Million Distaff

  1. #7 – Crabcakes (3-5): Appears to be a Free Space for horizontal wagers as she should mirror her victory in this event last year when 1-5 choice; she’ll likely stalk the early speed of the #3 and be in hand turning for home 
  2. #4 – My Magician (8-1): Runner-up to top pick last year with a furious rally in the stretch; third race after layoff as she faced tough ones in her last two; lack of a hot early pace will hurt chances to upset
  3. #6 – Anna’ Bandit (4-1): Would have loved this one to be a serious challenger to the favorite but to ask a filly for a top effort coming off a race just 7 days ago is not a “Go To” angle for this Capper
  4. #2 – Cee Bee Gee Bee (12-1): Dull effort in restricted stakes that was loaded with talent in first start for trainer C. Lynch who may have been able to tighten the screws leading up to this one

Race 4 is the MD Million Ladies ON TURF

  1. #7 – Saint Main Event (9-2): Talk about confidence, she makes turf debut in a stakes race! If her off track form (6:3-1-2) translates to turf, she’ll be a force to be reckoned with; only starter on the card for trainer J. Servis whose shippers have won at a 28% clip at Lrl over the past year 
  2. #9 – My Sistersledge (7-5): Returning Champ of this event got it done by a nose; loves the Lrl lawn (7:3-1-3) and got a much needed freshener 14 days ago when stayed in to run off the turf and looked good doing it
  3. #5 – Complete St. (5-1): Could be an attractive price to use underneath in exotics as she’s been facing tougher company but is winless in her last 16 starts; lost this event by a nose in 2016 
  4. #1 – Magician’s Vanity (8-1): Second start with blinkers can be a positive angle, even with a runner who is 2 for 44 lifetime; getting T. McCarthy in the irons, who was aboard last time he won can’t hurt either

Race 5 is the MD Million Sprint

  1. #2 – Lewisfield (1-2): His speed figures tower over foes in here but leery of this “Lock” as regular rider won’t be aboard yet listed on a bunch of claimers at CT tonight; a need the lead to win type of runner will get challenged early to either side of him, but class should prevail
  2. #6 – Greatbullsoffire (15-1): Not the same colt he was at age 2 but connections still believe he has talent to compete at this level; adds blinkers in third start following a one-year layoff
  3. #1 – Onemoregreattime (6-1): Candidate to get it done in gate-to-wire fashion if prohibitive favorite doesn’t bring his A-Game; needs the Lrl oval to be kind to early speed as he’s short on stamina going 6 furlongs
  4. #4 – No More Talk (5-1): Was cross-entered in MM Turf but goes in this supposed easier spot despite being winless at this distance (6:0-2-1) 

Race 6 is the MD Million Nursery

  1. #5 – Scrap Copper (3-1): A whisker away from being 2 for 2; showed versatility coming off the pace on turf v. gate-to-wire win in dirt debut that saw second and third place finishers win in their next outing
  2. #3 – Sky Magician (4-1): Can boast best BRIS# of this group despite being winless in two starts; catches a break as runner he finished behind in latest will not draw into the race
  3. #9 – Tappin Cat (8-1): Pleasant surprise when runner-up in debut, answered the call when getting maiden win against better while encountering traffic trouble; appears to have a huge upside
  4. #8 – Outofthepark (10-1): Gelded after tiring badly in debut back in July; trainer R. Jenkins is a master at correcting issues with young runners; like the work tab leading up to second start

Race 7 is the Starter Hcp ON TURF

  1. #4 – Senor Louie (6-1): Senior citizen of this group at age 10 making 92nd career start yet none have come at this distance on turf (was 3rds in only dirt try); a game turf runner has gained ground in the stretch in all 6 turf outings this year 
  2. #1 – Zen’s Land (3-1): Tactical speed from the rail seems comfortable there as he’s hit the board whenever breaking from the one hole; runner-up in lone try at this distance which was this event in ‘17
  3. #2 – No Knock Raid (9-2): Could be a threat to go gate-to-wire with HOF rider E. Prado in the irons as he could find himself on an easy lead, setting slow fractions and having enough gas left in the tank to hold off rallying foes 

Race 8 is the Starter Hcp

  1. #11 – Visual Effect (6-1): Blinkers off is a winning move 18% of the time for trainer D. Capuano seeking to get this one to Winners’ Circle for first time since claim 8 races back; cut back in distance will help as well 
  2. #5 – Helloitsme (6-1): Claimed out of his last three starts all at Prx but trainer M. Pino nabbed him for a shot at repeating in this event by a nose as favorite; this year has yet to be ITM in 5 starts versus lesser competition
  3. #4 – Gamblin (7-2): Pen-shipper seeks fifth consecutive victory while making Lrl debut; guaranteed to get first call out of the gate but has never raced beyond 6 furlongs, goes 7 today

Race 9 is the MD Million Lassie

  1.   #2 – My Star Potential (2-1): *** BEST BET *** Overcame troubled starts in both outings to run big for Lrl leading trainer C. Gonzalez; imagine what is possible if/when she gets a clean break
  2. #9 – Miss Philly Dilly (7-2): Still a maiden after two bridesmaid finishes when slow from the gate; only mount on the card for jock C. DeCarlo; strong late pace speed figures 
  3. #12 – Knitted Gloves (8-1): Pen-based shipper took a big step forward to earn diploma in second start with a strong speed figure; like the off the pace running style in a field filled with early speed
  4. #3 – Little Miss Raelyn (12-1): Need to toss stakes turf try as jock wisely recognized early on she wanted no parts of it; any improvement off dirt maiden win gives her a chance

Race 10 is the MD Million Turf

  1.  #2 – Talk Show Man (3-1): This old guy tries to reclaim the MM Turf title which he won in ’14; love that he got a paid workout going 6f in $100k stakes, making a late move which sets him up nicely for the added distance; jock J. Toledo opted to ride him versus #4 or #5 
  2. #11 – Phlash Phelps (8-5): May be on the downside of a fine career which includes winning this event in ’16 and ‘15; couldn’t catch a break as last two efforts came off the turf; has never raced on a turf course listed other than “firm” which may be the case today 
  3. #4 – Grandiflora (12-1): Blinkers come off once again; versatile runner at any distance though 0 for 6 at one-mile, has placed third and fourth in this contest the past two years; first time T. McCarthy will be aboard 
  4. #5 – Daniel Le Deux (8-1): Game turf runner as had a nice ’18 turf campaign so far (4:1-2-1) but gets toughest test of career in here; don’t be fooled, speed figures from all Lrl turf races on Oct. 4th seem a bit inflated 

Race 11 is the MD Million Classic

  1. #1 – Crouchelli (10-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Cross-entered in MM Turf but belongs here; though just 1 for 10 lifetime, this 3-year-old seems to get better with every outing and the further he’s asked to run; one thing for certain, he’ll come flying wide in the latter stages if the pace is an honest one 
  2. #4 – Flash McCaul (6-1): The pride of Country Life Farm makes fourth MM Day start as he was sixth in this event last year and fifth in ‘16; third start after an 8-month layoff usually results in a peak performance
  3. #9 – Admiral Blue (7-2): Most experienced at this distance (8:1-1-1) but that one win came on a “good” track; perception is he’s been facing better at NYRA tracks; will be dangerous if early speed has been holding throughout the day
  4. #3 – Clubman (9-2): Uncharacteristically took the early lead in latest start and just missed winning it; came off the pace in ’17 MM Classic to be fourth behind a tougher group than these 

Race 12 is the Maiden Waiver ON TURF

  1. #10 – Dendrobia (2-1): Can boast best turf BRIS# of this bunch; fourth against winners in an off the turf event when obviously needing a race; back on turf and against non-winners with best shot at graduating
  2.  #11 – Tilaka (15-1): Steps up after being in-the-money in two off the turf races; trainer only has two in her barn but she places them in spots where they can be successful (3:0-2-1 at Lrl)
  3.   #7 – Oddseverinurfavor (12-1): Missed earning diploma by a nose versus turf bottom level maidens but speed figure came back strong; if she can duplicate that effort, she might handle the big step up in class

Yesterday’s News

  • On Friday October 19th at Laurel had 6 winners from the 10-race card (2 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD below).
  • Top Selections are 377 for 1319 (28.58%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%). The payoffs of the day’s winners…
    • R1: $6.40
    • R2: $11.80
    • R3: $3.80
    • R4: xxx
    • R5: xxx
    • R6: xxx
    • R7: $16.80
    • R8: xxx
    • R9: $7.60
    • R10: $11.20
  • Of the suggested multi-race wagers, hit the R1-R2 $2 Double for $46.60 (cost $12) and the R8-R9 $2 Double for $46.40 (cost $12).
  • BEST BET of the Day (131:40-33-11; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Sacred Walk (3rd race: 9-5 M/L; 4-5 PT) advanced to a three-wide lead entering the first turn, set the pace in the two path down the backstretch and on the far turn and eagerly pulled away through the stretch under some mild urging and returned $3.80 to WIN, $2.60 to PLACE and $2.10 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (126:21-24-15; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Crush It (8th race: 6-1 M/L; 5-1 PT) drifted in at the break and bumped with a rival, steadied soon after, lagged well back, circled four wide into the lane and failed to pose a threat and finished seventh.

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