The GQ Approach – Laurel October 18

by | Oct 18, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing | 0 comments

Laurel Park

First turf race of the 2018 season at Laurel Park. Photo by Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live Fall racing meet, Post Time 12:35 pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $2,025
  • Super High 5: none
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Change of Equipment or Medication - Trainers often tinker with a horse's equipment - putting on or removing blinkers, adding Lasix, gelding a horse - to find what works best. Sometimes these changes can yield big improvements.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 7/ #1 – Breaking Bread (9-5)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 4 /#2 – Marco Island (6-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double: 1, 3, 5 w/ 3, 4 ($12)
  • Race 3 – 50 cent Pick 3: 4, 5, 6 w/ 3, 6, 7 w/ 1, 6, 8 ($13.50)
  • Race 8 – $2 Double: 1, 8 w/ 3, 12, 16 ($12)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Sunny, high in the low-50s
  • Scheduled turf races: 1st, 8th, 9th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST / Turf – OFF

1st Race Post Time 12:35pm EDT

Race 1 IF ON THE TURF

  1. #8 – Dancingwithpaynter (4-1): Draw a line through main track start when event was taken off the turf; gets J. Vargas, Jr. back in the irons who was aboard for MSW win four back
  2. #1 – Janelle Dreams (10-1): Lightbulb Theory in play as she got to the wire first in her 15th start albeit in off the turf contest at turf bottom level $16kMCL
  3. #6 – Lovely Sunset (7-2): Beaten favorite in latest nearly two months ago on Del turf in $20kN2L which draws similar talent as this $16kN2L at Lrl; first start with D. Centeno as the pilot
    * If OFF THE TURF go with #1-Janelle Dream (10-1); #3-Havana Affair (10-1); #5-Belle N Tonic (9-2)

Race 2

  1. #4 – Bear Trappe (9-5): Second start with blinkers and stretching back out to one-mile following cut back to 5 ½ furlongs in restricted off the turf stakes
  2. #3 – San Marco (12-1): Buried in MSW debut in the Pacific Northwest at Emd so how/why would this WA-bred land here, especially in the G. Capuano barn whose runners win at 23% clip in first route, 38% second race
  3. #2 – Three Phase (9-5): Three-time beaten favorite; runner-up in 4 of 6 starts points to a classic case of Seconditis all versus similar

Race 3

  1. #5 – Tap the Mark (8-5): Exits $100k restricted stakes at Del running to 46-1 odds but is only runner in here who has hit the board against winners
  2. #4 – Crazed (7-2): Lone mount on the card for J. Rose who has won on 2 of 5 trainer A. Pecoraro runners at Lrl; this one has yet to run on a fast track in three starts, winning here in the slop
  3. #6 – Brother Tez (6-1): Won debut at Del in $25kMCL two back without Lasix; got in in latest/second start but tired in Del slop; could reverse fortunes on a fast track

Race 4

  1. #3 – Marco Island (6-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Faced much better in debut on turf at KD when being engage early but couldn’t hang for the entire 6 ½ furlongs; adds blinkers and has looked fit in the A.M. at Lrl
  2. #6 – Wall (5-2): Home-MD/bred fro Fitzhugh, LLC by Include out of a Curlin mare who did her best going the middle distances; still like the evenly spaced works finishing up with a bullet
  3. #7 – Quality Matters (7-2): NY-based but MD-bred runner for trainer C. Clemente showed “late interest” in debut here going 5 furlongs; adds blinkers

Race 5

  1. #1 – D J’s Favorite (3-1): Got burnt by this one in latest when she threw in the towel early; makes third start after layoff and has a previous win here breaking from Post #1; might catch a breather early
  2. #6 – Reality Queen (8-1): Pen-based shipper has been ITM in every Lrl start (3:1-1-1) and she encountered all kind of issues in the SHOW placement effort; nice price for a “live” runner IMHO
  3. #8 – She’s Achance Too (5-2): Consistently has been earning better speed figs than today’s foes; takes another step up in class as she goes for fourth consecutive victory

Race 6

  1. #6 – Let Me Go First (5-1): Should find this group easier than the open $32k claimer at Sar when runner-up or those he faced in the G3 at Mth two back when 5th, 11-lengths behind winner 
  2. #4 – Whateverybodywants (8-1): Dirt BRIS#s have been climbing in last three; got roughed-up at 1/8thf pole in latest and was put up for SHOW purse; 2 for 2 on Lrl main oval
  3. #9 – General Downs (5-1): Couldn’t last in gate-to-wire try as 7-5 favorite versus similar in last outing despite an excellent effort; runner-up in 3 of 5 starts since transferred to K. Rubley barn

Race 7

  1. #1 – Breaking Bread (9-5): *** BEST BET *** Just 13% over the past year at Lrl but trainer J. Navarro been winning at a 38% clip in ’18; slides into Lrl with a pair of runners (the other is #5 in R6) but this is the one worth making the trip for; cuts back to familiar sprint (6:1-2-3)
  2. #7 – Formal Class (7-2): 1 for 1 at Lrl which occurred 18-months ago at this distance; there’s no shame fourth-place effort behind Crabcakes in most recent start 
  3. #6 – Last True Love (6-1): Hate touting a 3-year-old first time against her elders especially this one coming off 8-month layoff BUT she appears to be the quickest from the gate and may not look back 

Race 8 IF ON THE TURF

  1. #5 – Liberale (5-2): Has finished ITM in last seven outings without a win while being sent off as Post Time favorite in 5 of those (yikes!); even adding blinkers three back didn’t help but class drop should
  2. #9 – Love to Share (3-1): Destroyed nine $20kMCL foes on Med turf in latest, her eighth career start but got lowest grass BRIS# of career; has given her backers a thrill in all two-turn turf tries
  3. #3 – Shrew Meaning (6-1): Exits a 4-month layoff; couldn’t get to early lead as she likes in first start against winners; spotty worktab for return but if she gets lead without pressure look out
    * If OFF THE TURF go with #8-Eye of the Wildcat (7-2); #1-String Bean (20-1); #6-Congrats Graduate (15-1)

Race 9 IF ON THE TURF

  1. #10 – Reiltin Oir (12-1): Beaten favorite in latest one level lower on cut back in distance was 5-wide on turn; previously was third at this level going two turns, as she will today; hard to believe trainer M. Eppler would make this move if there was reason for latest dud
  2. #7 – Hey Mabel (8-1): Dull effort in off the turf effort with HOF E. Prado aboard for second time; trainer J. Salzman, Jr. turns to new, hungry bug in town (R. Gutierrez) who has 3 wins from 5 mounts for this trainer 
  3. #4 – Wolverette (6-1): Discovered in latest she hates the slop or was in over her head going 9 furlongs in a restricted stakes; returns to turf and maiden level where she’s been 2nd and 3rd
    * If OFF THE TURF go with #16-Nevisian Sunset (7-5); #3-Thesweetesttaboo (5-1); #12-Blame Julie (8-1)

Yesterday’s News

  • On Sunday October 14th at Laurel had 9 winners from the 10-race card (3 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD below).
  • Top Selections are 372 for 1300 (28.62%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%). The payoffs of the day’s winners…
    • R1: $8.40
    • R2: xxx
    • R3: $14.60
    • R4: $4.40
    • R5: $3.20
    • R6: $5.40
    • R7: $3.40
    • R8: $4.80
    • R9: $6.60
    • R10: $3.80
  • Of the suggested multi-race wagers, hit the R3-R5 50 Pick 3 for $22.15 (cost $13.50).
  • BEST BET of the Day (129:38-33-11; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Marie from Parie (1st race: 6-1 M/L; 6-5 PT) disputed pace along the rail, opened a clear lead in mid-stretch, drifted out near the sixteenth pole and gave way grudgingly to get beat by a neck and returned $2.60 to PLACE and $2.20 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (124:21-23-15; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Professor Zoom (5th race: 8-1 M/L; 8-1 PT) hugged the rail in the stretch but failed to mount a rally and finished seventh.

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