The GQ Approach – Laurel October 12

by | Oct 12, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Laurel Park

First turf race of the 2018 season at Laurel Park. Photo by Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live Fall racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: none
  • Super High 5: none
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Jockey’s Choice - Often a jockey will have ridden more than one of the horses in their last race who are entered today; which horse the jockey decides to ride could be a tip he/she likes this one's chances better than the others.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 2/ #4 – I’m Mr. Blue (3-1)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 6 /#2 – Rosuri (10-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double: 5, 6, 12 w/ 4 ($6)
  • Race 7 – 50 cent Pick 4: 3, 4 w/ 2, 6, 7 w/ 5, 8 w/ 3, 6 ($12)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Sunny, high in the low-60s
  • Scheduled turf races: 1st, 2nd, 4th, 5th, 6th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST / Turf – OFF

1st Race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #12 – Queen Francis (12-1): First start after trainer R. Sanchez-Salmon claim for a nickel just 12 days ago; needs the lead at every early call to hit wire first
  2. #6 – More Than Treasure (10-1): MTO entry claimed by trainer C. Gonzalez when winning third straight start; this field is left with tons of early speed
  3. #5 – La La Bamba (15-1): Might be cheap but only starter in here who can come from off the pace

Race 2 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #4 – I’m Mr. Blue (3-1): *** BEST BET *** Interesting tactics in latest has PPs show he should be gunning to the lead today with bug W. Hamilton back in irons
  2. #2 – Promote (5-1): Exits three turf tries against better but his history is on dirt (10:2-0-1); will need pace help from unlikely sources
  3. #7 – Asset Allocation (5-1): Hasn’t won in seven starts this year for train seeking first win of the year; been racing on turf but 1 for 4 on fast track

Race 3

  1. #2 – Bronx Sandman (4-1): Beaten favorite with no excuse returns to Lrl and condition where he was a fast closing second sprinting
  2. #1 – Vincent Van Gogo (7-2): Tenth career start will be just second on a fast track which was a winning effort; he’s no Picasso in the slop (2:0-0-1)
  3. #5 – Victory Chimes (3-1): Would love to catch a sloppy track (4:2-0-1) as he romped by 9-lengths against restricted allowance foes in latest as even money choice

Race 4 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #3 – Prime Time Man (4-1): has taken advantage of this off the turf scenario in the past as he’s never been worse than second; proceed with caution as he showed nothing in first start after 4-month layoff
  2. #2 – Whiskey Seven (15-1): Stays in this off the turf event again as he made fast track debut in 15th career start, placing fourth of five after awkward break; can’t get worse can it?
  3. #1 – Recalibrating (6-1): MTO entry is 0 for 11 on fast track; will need pace help and a prayer as this level is toughest he’s been in for quite a while

Race 5 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #6 – Union Blues (5-1): Much better on main oval than turf; got a horrible ride going 7f in latest setting 44 3/5 and 1:08 2/5 fractions… no wonder he stopped
  2. #7 – Dr Bolt (15-1): Could take advantage of a fast, early pace to get first win of the year from nine starts
  3. #9 – Weather Report (4-1): Will give top pick a fight early which could cook both of them; exits two turf tries; 2 for 2 on fast track

Race 6 is OFF THE TURF

  1.   #2 – Rosuri (10-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Second start with blinkers; issues in both starts makes her live if she avoids trouble
  2. #6 – Nosey Josy (3-1): Bridesmaid in both starts earns diploma with continued improve with A. Castrenze in irons who is 3 for 10 for connections at Lrl
  3. #12 – Dixie Do Good (5-1): MTO entry has been second in both starts at this level; ran behind #6 at Tim in MSW event 

Race 7

  1. #4 – Calculated Thinkin (9-5): Maiden failed as favorite when dropped to bottom at Tim, claimed by 28% trainer T. Kreiser; show of confidence stepping up one level while out of “jail”
  2. #3 – Any Darn Day (2-1): Exits a pair of “key” races in last two in which he lost by double-digits; based on previous races must have trainer J. Egan scratching his head who wins at 29% clip on MSW-to-MCL move
  3. #6 – Ghostly Affair (4-1): Claimed by trainer A. Farrior out of debut in Feb. against bottom maidens; didn’t return until 3 weeks ago to be runner-up at this level in off the turf event

Race 8

  1. #2 – Dazzling Okie (5-2): Gets sixth different jock in last six outings without a win during that stretch; first time 8-year-old is in for tag in quite some time could be viewed as a negative
  2. #6 – Rare Eagle (3-1): Trainer R. Sillaman nabbed this one for a nickel from leading trainer C. Gonzalez on the drop and won; catches a break as jail time just recently expired
  3. #7 – Battle Midway (7-2): Caution flag should be waving here; claimed for $32k at Sar when outrun from start to finish; put in similar effort v. open $25k at Bel 13 days ago; 1 of 3 shippers on card for trainer J. Englehart (10:5-2-1 at Lrl)

Race 9

  1. #5 – Souper Escape (5-2): FL-homebred for Live Oak Plantation by Medaglia d’Oro finally appears ready for debut following a steady worktab over the past 3-months 
  2. #8 – China Cat (4-1): Debut at Sar didn’t go well (7th by 11); trainer J. Englehart gets 19% of his 2-year-olds to Winners’ Circle and gives leg up to Lrl “go to” jock J. Vargas, Jr.
  3. #1/1A – Olive Kat/Weekend Flyer (9-2): DH Racing duo conditioned by J. O’Dwyer who decided “Flyer” debut won’t come today; “Kat” got an education was compromised early in debut, worked a bullet since  

Race 10

  1.  #6 – Queen to Checkmate (5-2): 3-year-olds first outing versus her elders in latest resulted in a dull fourth when 2-1; drops to bottom in third start after 3-month layoff 
  2.  #3 – Choice Prospect (6-1): Has taken to dirt at this bottom level (3:1-2-0) following a string of turf efforts versus better
  3.  #1 – Saint Penny (6-1): Third start after layoff; early speed cutting back one panel after being beaten favorite at CT

Yesterday’s News

  • On Thursday October 11th at Laurel had 5 winners from the 9-race card (2 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD below).
  • Top Selections are 362 for 1270 (28.50%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%). The payoffs of the day’s winners…
    • R1: xxx
    • R2: xxx
    • R3: $3.40
    • R4: xxx
    • R5: $4.60
    • R6: $4.80
    • R7: $4.20
    • R8: $7.20
    • R9: xxx
  • Of the suggested multi-race wagers, none were hit.
  • BEST BET of the Day (126:36-32-11; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Midnight Cry (7th race: 9-5 M/L; 4-5 PT) sped to the early lead, saved ground on the turn, drifted to the four-path turning for home, failed to hold off the winner but finished willingly and returned $2.40 to PLACE, $2.10 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (120:21-21-15; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Unusual Fleet (8th race: 8-1) was SCRATCHED.

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