The GQ Approach – Laurel October 6

by | Oct 6, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Laurel Park

First turf race of the 2018 season at Laurel Park. Photo by Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live Fall racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $1469
  • Super High 5: none
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Cutback in distance - Running a route race (1 mile or more) can improve a horse's fitness and help him learn to relax; it can also lead to a big effort when shortening up to a sprint.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 7/ #6 – Sheikh of Sheikhs (3-1)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 9 /#2 – Glad Dad (12-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double: 2, 5 w/ 2, 5, 7 ($12)
  • Race 3 – 50-cent Pick 3: 1, 3, 4, 5  w/ 3, 4 w/ 1, 10, 11 ($12)
  • Race 6 – 50-cent Pick 5: 5, 6 w/ 6, 8 w/ 2, 4 w/ 2, 4, 5 w/ 1, 5, 8 ($36)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Sunny, highs in upper-70s
  • Scheduled turf races: 1st, 2nd, 4th, 5th, 7th, 10th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST / Turf – OFF

1st Race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1 IF ON THE TURF

  1. #1/1A – Mega Bucks/Gearhead (5-2): Formidable duo sent out by trainer M. Trombetta; “Bucks” earned big 85 turf BRIS# here in debut turf at this distance while stablemate encountered traffic on Bel yielding turf yet was less than two-lengths behind winner 
  2. #9 – Pep Talking (3-1): Took a big step forward being runner-up on stretch out after being transferred to trainer G. Motion barn; J. Vargas, Jr. subs for F. Lynch who’s at Kee riding in a pair of G1s
  3.  #8 – The Keeper (6-1): Hasn’t had a clean trip in either career start yet finished willingly; the “Mad Genius” aka trainer M. Dickinson turns to M. Pino in search of better results
    * If OFF THE TURF go with #2-Golden Noquez (12-1); #5-Tolaga Bay (15-1); #1A-Gearhead (5-2)

Race 2 IF ON THE TURF

  1. #15 – Wingman (4-1): Needs one defections to get in off AE List; third start after brief layoff after picking up minor shares v. $35kN3L at Sar twice; hopefully instructions are not to contest the early pace 
  2. #10 – Red Clay Road (20-1): Ignore last 3 starts which were washed off the turf; best efforts have come on this course at this distance; career best was a gate-to-wire win over “good” Lrl turf
  3. #6 – Uhwarrie Sky (10-1): Had a rough summer as 3 of last 4 races came off the turf, but won the only turf contest earning career best 82 BRIS#
    * If OFF THE TURF go with #5-Glennrichment (7-2); #2-Mokheef (9-2); #7-In Him With Him (8-1)

Race 3

  1. #3 – Shanghai Jewel (3-1): Jumped the rail in deep stretch on GP turf in last outing 10-months ago when blinkers were added; new barn sent her to SC to be retrained; latest work was a 5f bullet   
  2. #4 – Miz Creed (6-1): CT-based, KY-bred FTS by Jimmy Creed out of a High Brite mare extensive worktab is riddled with bullets; lone mount on card for jock O. Flores whose won with 22% of trainer T. Grams’ runners over the past year
  3. #5 – Bash (4-1): This filly burnt bettors money multiple times this spring then took time off to regroup; this 7-furlongs distance might be ideal

Race 4 IF ON THE TURF

  1. #5 – West Coast Bias (7-2): Desperately seeking early speed in this contest and land on this one by default; looking at her one-mile turf tests, she’s been close enough to the lead in the fastest 4f times of this bunch to warrant a gate-to-wire prediction   
  2. #2 – Quick Witted (4-1): Honest running filly always picks up a check; 2 of 3 wins have comes on a “yielding” turf much like how the Lrl lawn has been of late
  3. #3 – So Innocent (15-1): If the top pick doesn’t care to take early lead this one could inherit it and potentially steal this contest; would need a career best effort but worth a look
    * If OFF THE TURF go with #3-So Innocent (15-1); #4-Moon Virginia (30-1); #7-My Sistersledge (4-1)

Race 5 IF ON THE TURF

  1. #6 – Raspberry Swirl (6-1): Has shown willingness in late stages of both career turf sprint to indicate she’ll enjoy travelling a route of ground while bloodlines (by Twirling Candy out of an Afleet Alex mare) suggest the same
  2. #3 – Liberale (5-2): Trainer M. Eppler has improved this FR-bred (not baguette) but still missing a victory over winners while twice a beaten favorite; has the look of a Hanger 
  3. #2 – Goodnight Moon (10-1): Graduated in latest outing over a “good” Lrl turf course in her twelfth start, second with blinkers and first with T. McCarthy in the irons; Lightbulb Theory could carry her victory again
    * If OFF THE TURF go with #10-Eighty Six Mets (9-2); #11-Moon Chant (8-1); #1-Words of a Feather (8-1)

Race 6

  1. #5 – Stevie’s Joy (3-1): Ascending BRIS#s but tends to play Bummer Cars with foes along the way; distance seems to suit this gelding dropping back down to maiden bottom
  2. #6 – Wise Story (6-1): Strangely ran better against $25kMCL in second start than in debut at $10kMCL level; trainer J. Corrales win pct. when stretching out runners is better than overall pct.
  3. #1 – Painter’s Pride (2-1): Completes gradual class drop to bottom as he could only manage to complete Tri’s and Super’s in higher maiden ranks sprinting at Prx and Mth; vulnerable favorite

Race 7 IF ON THE TURF

  1. #6 – Sheikh of Sheikhs (3-1): *** BEST BET *** Winner of four straight, the latest for trainer L. Gaudet in first off a $25k claim during a Sar “shopping spree”; versatile as two wins came on dirt and two on turf
  2. #7 – Clever Triad (10-1): hated the yielding turf and 6-furlongs in Lrl Dash; has a pattern in PPs of running a good race, then bad race; current cycle indicates it’s time for a good one
  3. #2 – Nice Tune (30-1): This gray was in way over his head taking on stakes foes in last two; exits a brief vacation, ready for first start v. n3x rivals
    * If OFF THE TURF go with #6-Sheikh of Sheikhs (3-1); #8-Mr. Brix (15-1); #4-Siralfredthegreat (8-1)

Race 8

  1. #2 – Bridgewater (9-5): Didn’t care for the stretch out to one-mile, as she throw out the anchor early as 9-5 favorite; comes right back in same condition but back sprinting; bullet work last weekend shows all is well 
  2. #4 – Sleighbelle (4-1): Pen-based shipper been racing on synthetic at Pid yet won debut by 7+ lengths on dirt at Tam; trainer T. Beattie (19%) hasn’t been able to get to Winners’ Circle at Lrl in the past year (0 for 11)
  3. #1 – Tiz a Diamond (6-1): 1 for 20 record and aimlessly racing at one-mile plus distances at this level and above, now tries a sprint for first time in over two years when showed late run on GP speedway

Race 9

  1. #2 – Glad Dad (12-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Second start with blinkers and exits a 2-month layoff during which this gelding was transferred to trainer B. McFarlane barn; heavily backed in first three starts so talent must be there
  2. #5 – Blue Danube (20-1): Built to go one-mile or more so the fact he was asked to sprint against top, local two-year-olds who a number have come back to earn their diplomas, maybe given some time to retrain to stretch out and facing lesser talent makes him a winner
  3. #6 – Reds Winning Call (3-1): Based on both career outings sprinting, he has the look of wanting more distance; leery as to why S. Russell elects not to ride 

Race 10 IF ON THE TURF

  1.  #3 – Carbonated (4-1): Third time should be the charm following a pair of runner-up finishes at this distance of turf; winner in latest came back Thursday to win at 35-1 
  2.  #9 – Quality Choice (3-1): Nearly pulled off gate-to-wire score losing head bob on Med turf as even money favorite; will have company early today
  3.  #6 – Fleet Admiral (8-1): 0 for 16 but latest was the closest he’s come to earning diploma in first try on Lrl lawn; steps up one level
    * If OFF THE TURF go with #8-Lunar Boogie (12-1); #5-Relentless Lion (8-1); #1A-Bay Hill (5-2)

Yesterday’s News

  • On Friday October 5th at Laurel had 7 winners from the 10-race card (2 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD below).
  • Top Selections are 359 for 1244 (28.86%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%). The payoffs of the day’s winners…
    • R1: $5.80
    • R2: xxx
    • R3: xxx
    • R4: $3.20
    • R5: $4.60
    • R6: xxx
    • R7: $5.00
    • R8: $4.40
    • R9: $5.80
    • R10: $4.40
  • Of the suggested multi-race wagers, none were hit.
  • BEST BET of the Day (124:36-31-11; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Artful Move (7th race: 9-2 M/L; 3-2 PT) took the early lead, saved ground on the turn, drifted out a bit in mid-stretch, drifted out late and gave way grudgingly to be second best and returned $2.60 to PLACE and $2.10 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (118:21-21-14; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Petticoatsnpistols (6th race: 6-1 M/L; 5-2 PT) stalked outside a rival, bid nearing the quarter pole, was floated out a bit entering the lane and gave game pursuit to the wire but settled to be runner-up and returned $4.40 to PLACE and $3.40 to SHOW.

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