The GQ Approach – Laurel September 30

by | Sep 30, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Laurel Park

First turf race of the 2018 season at Laurel Park. Photo by Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live Fall racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $1,534
  • Super High 5: none
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
First race on a different surface - Many horses prefer one surface or another, which can reveal itself the first time they try their preferred surface. Bettors can get a clue to this based on pedigree.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 2/ #3 – Warrior Lake (5-2)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 8 /#7 – Iredell (5-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double: 1, 2, 3 w/ 3 ($6)
  • Race 3 – 50-cent Pick 3: 2, 4, 7  w/ 1, 2, 5 w/ 7, 9, 11 ($13.50)
  • Race 7 – 50-cent Pick 5: 3, 8 w/ 1, 3, 7 w/ 2, 5, 7 w/ 4, 10 w/ 12, 14 ($36)
  • Race 10 – $2 Double: 4, 10 w/ 11, 12, 14  ($12)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Sunny, highs in upper-70s
  • Scheduled turf races: 5th, 7th, 10th, 11th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST / Turf – OFF

1st Race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1

  1. #2 – American Star (5-1): Stumble at the start in local debut put this LA-bred daughter of lightning quick Star Guitar is a tough spot; expect a better showing
  2. #3 – Salt Hay Bay (2-1): NY-bred/shipper is one entry on the card for trainer Rudy Rod; drops from a pair of woeful state breds, adds blinkers, uses McCarthy and offered for less than advertised tag
  3. #1 – Yours to Keep (10-1): Second start with blinkers; getting an additional furlong should help and need to believe the X-man will hustle her early from the rail

Race 2

  1. #3 – Warrior Lake (5-2): *** BEST BET *** Appears race was written for this S. Lake trainee as the 4 of the 5 others are all stepping up; exits win v. N2L at Del earning a huge 89 BRIS#; should clear this bunch early without being pressed to get 6 furlongs today’s 
  2. #4 – Uncle Billy (7-2): Second start after A. Farrior claim (21% w/ positive ROI in this scenario); both wins came when prohibitive favorite which won’t be the case in here; J. Toledo 36% w/ Farrior
  3. #6 – Son of Sanibel (8-1): Claimed out of $5kN2L victory at Suf as Post Time favorite by trainer J. Kirby; has early speed but fractions indicate nothing that can match top pick

Race 3

  1. #7 – Summer Smile (3-1): Failed as Post Time choice in 5½ furlong affair here just last weekend v. a level higher; gave up lead in last 1/16th which won’t matter going 5 furlongs today 
  2. #4 – Swirrlie Shirlie (6-1): Continues to drop in class seeking diploma; slop or six panels wasn’t to her liking when first time with blinkers in latest
  3. #2 – Empire Panther (12-1): Switches to the J. Corrales barn who adds Lasix (15%) and blinkers (9%) and drops to a level she can be successful

Race 4

  1. #2 – More Abundance (6-1): Gets A. Lopez in the irons as usual for his only mount on the card; was runner-up in same condition on turf behind a nice import from Sar; switches back to dirt, a surface he handles just fine (9:3-0-1)
  2. #1 – Align the Numbers (7-2): Speeding 3-year-old tried grass coming off 5-month layoff and didn’t handle it at all; has had rail assignment in the past (3:2-1-0); note J.D. lands here instead of #5
  3. #5 – Big Bella Brown (9-2): Reunited with J. Vargas, Jr. who got to Winners’ Circle in only try with him two back; got buried v. similar in latest at Del; loves Lrl (6:3-1-2)

Race 5 IS OFF THE TURF

  1. #9 – Rail Master (12-1): Drops back in for tag after MSW going 6 furlongs were too much for him; should show early speed as before when in at this level
  2. #11 – Mojo’s Louie Cat (20-1): Third start after 9-month layoff and cuts back in distance when showing early speed before weakening when going one mile 
  3. #7 – Dirtyfoot (10-1): Away since last October after worse finish of five race career; nice worktab shows being gelded helped put his mind on his job; though trainer R. Bailes is 0 for 14 in past few years in this layoff scenario 

Race 6

  1. #4 – Gingeresk (3-1): Rough trip in latest when tardy from the gate and steadied in race restricted to 3-year-olds, which ended her win streak at two; what should be a quick early pace gets it done
  2. #3 – La Zoraya (7-2): Speed figures have been steadily climbing in her last four outings but has yet to win on a fast track (9:0-2-2); will have plenty of company early; runner-up to #7 two back
  3. #1 – Forres Lily (6-1): Blinkers comes off after a three races experiment that yielded no improvement; beaten favorite in same condition at Del; gets 5 lb. bug who’s getting good reviews

Race 7 IS OFF THE TURF

  1. #3 – Hey Mabel (6-1): Has performed no worse on dirt as she has no turf; E. Prado liked her enough late move in first off claim ride that he’s back in the iron today
  2. #8 – Miss Aliphant (30-1): This gal obviously wants more ground than the 6 furlongs she ran coming off 5-month layoff; like the switch to the more aggressive R. Montanez for the ride
  3. #10 – Monkey Mind (8-1): A candidate to try a get-to-wire run; turf-to-dirt angle for those who are believers

Race 8

  1. #7 – Iredell (5-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Been mixing it up in various Starter events in 8 of last 10 outings, always getting a check plus a few wins; in his two claiming races (v. lesser) he won; never OTB at this distance (5:2-1-2) 
  2. #3 – Willie B Mine (12-1): Wanted turf after a 2-month layoff but stayed in while very chilly on the board (19-1) yet SHOWed; 7-year-old gelding still has what it takes to win against this group  
  3. #1 – Tale of E Dubai (9-5): Barn (40% in ’18) is riding a 5-race win streak, 4 in the last two days; claimed this one for $32k out of latest, who stopped after 5f of 7 f contest; drop to $20k raises yellow flags but he won in June at Bel for $20k; do the math though… $20k plus $16k winner’s purse is more than $32k

Race 9

  1. #7 – Arkadag (8-5): Ninth try is a charm? Transferred from B. Walsh to T. Morley barn after latest when runner-up in Lrl debut as 3-5 choice in restricted MSW; might need more ground but is the only class dropper in here 
  2. #2 – Gorbachov (5-1): First fast track try after running evenly a pair of turf sprints; Ghostzapper gelding with Rock Hard Ten on the bottom suggests stretching out is the right move 
  3. #5 – Stevie’s Joy (9-2): Reclaimed three back by trainer F. Allen who has improved this gelding getting the SHOW purse in last two; was a distant runner-up at this distance and level when in barn first time around 

Race 10 IS OFF THE TURF

  1.  #10 – Lela’s Gift (2-1): MTO entry has caught sloppy tracks of late (4:0-0-2) but is 2 for 3 on fast tracks which she’ll get today; only loss came when 37-1 in minor stakes at Mth
  2.    #4 – Unlucky Hillary (8-5): MTO who owns best dirt BRIS# of this group left in this contest; adding blinkers made a positive difference for a while; switch of jocks may do the same
  3.    #1 – Jokers To the Right (15-1): Second try after trainer J. Shannon $10k claim; got HSOW purse on stretch out to this one-mile off the turf distance; others are no great shakes 

Race 11 IS OFF THE TURF

  1. #14 – Catapult Jack (15-1): Only Also-Eligible who elected to go in this off the turf event; finally broke maiden (on turf) two back in 31st start; dirt start record isn’t bad (18:0-8-2)
  2. #12 – Chinquapin (12-1): His 82 BRIS# on a fast track from five starts is tops among those left in this contest; has reason to improve following latest at same distance
  3. #11 – Smash Williams (15-1): Stretches out to furthest distance of career; makes second start for trainer W. Potts after $16k claim when failed as lukewarm favorite at Sar for T. Pletcher sprinting in same condition

Yesterday’s News

  • On Saturday September 29th at Laurel had 9 winners from the 12-race card (3 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD below).
  • Top Selections are 352 for 1214 (29.00%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%). The payoffs of the day’s winners…
    • R1: $6.00
    • R2: $8.00
    • R3: $3.20
    • R4: xxx
    • R5: $5.00
    • R6: xxx
    • R7: $54.60
    • R8: $6.20
    • R9: xxx
    • R10: $8.00
    • R11: $6.40
    • R12: $4.00
  • Of the suggested multi-race wagers, none were hit.
  • BEST BET of the Day (121:34-30-11; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Cairenn (5th race: 9-5 M/L; 3-2 PT) exchanged several bumps with CEE BEE GEE BEE the opening furlong, worked between horses on the turn, angled to the three-path turning for home, closed determinedly outside horses and was along late to prevail by a half-length and returned $5.00 to WIN, $2.60 to PLACE and $2.10 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (116:21-20-14; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Jah Grace (1st race: 10-1 M/L; 10-1 PT) set the pace two wide down the backstretch and around the turn, remained near the rail in the stretch, switched to her left lead near the sixteenth pole and faded to finish third and returned $6.80 to SHOW.

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