The GQ Approach – Laurel September 23

by | Sep 23, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Laurel Park

First turf race of the 2018 season at Laurel Park. Photo by Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live Fall racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $3,441.30
  • Super High 5: none
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Change of Equipment or Medication - Trainers often tinker with a horse's equipment - putting on or removing blinkers, adding Lasix, gelding a horse - to find what works best. Sometimes these changes can yield big improvements.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 9/ #5 – River Deep (3-1)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 3 /#11 – Brazen Dancer (5-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double: 5, 12 w/ 2, 5, 6  ($12)
  • Race 3 – 50-cent Pick 3: 7, 10, 11 w/ 1, 4, 8 w/ 1, 4, 6 ($13.50)
  • Race 8 – 50-cent Pick 5: 2 w/ 5 w/ 4, 7, 12 w/ 6, 9 w/ 2, 4, 5, 8 ($12)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Cloudy with rain, highs in low-70s
  • Scheduled turf races: 1st, 3rd, 4th, 6th, 7th, 9th, 10th, 11th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – SLOPPY / Turf – OFF

1st Race Post Time 12:30pm EDT

Race 1 IF ON THE TURF

  1. #6 – Starship Thor (5-1): Will try gate-to-wire act based on yesterday’s “good” turf which made it tough to make up ground late early in the card 
  2. #12 – Scout’s Honor (3-1): Can make amends for runner-up finish in latest as 3-5 favorite but with an excuse
  3. #11 – Padilla (9-5): FL-bred heads the wrong geographic direction this time of year after trainer B. Tessore $16k claim at GP 5-months ago should raise yellow flag based on drop to $8k
    * If OFF THE TURF go with #12-Scout’s Honor (3-1); #5-Reedini (15-1); #1-King’s House (4-1)

Race 2

  1. #5 – Cerulean Springs (2-1): Just 1 for 16 lifetime but the lightbulb came on when breaking maiden 3 races back then runner-up in both starts to follow, the latest missing by a nose; needs pace help
  2. #2 – Tambora (5-1): Quick from the gate in both starts with blinkers since trainer R. Sillaman $25k claim; needs to muster some stamina to get 6-furlongs, furthest test of young career
  3. #6 – Generalist (8-1): Broke maiden in Sar slop v. $20kMCL; claimed in last two outings and now protected in Lrl debut; will be on or just off the pace

Race 3 IF ON THE TURF

  1. #11 – Brazen Dancer (5-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Has shown early speed on grass in the past to be a threat to give trainer K. L. Deiter her first win at Lrl in the past year
  2. #10 – Iwishiwaspecial (9-2): Need to ignore the clunker this gray tossed at Tim and be confident he’ll run back to initial start on Lrl lawn when earning SHOW purse v. higher level maiden  
  3. #7 – Slim (8-1): Has the look of a career maiden (18:0-6-6) but finally gets to try turf; not sure what took so long other than he’s been at dirt bottom level forever
    * If OFF THE TURF stick with these same three as above

Race 4 IF the Oakley Stakes is ON THE TURF

  1. #1 – Altamura (3-1): Riding a three-race win streak; the last two in restricted stakes, one on and one off the turf… just doesn’t seem to matter
  2. #8 – Virginia Fable (5-1): Has earned huge numbers as far as these restricted turf stakes events go; gate-to-wire threat
  3. #6 – What the Beep (4-1): Discovered in latest 6-furlong outing on a fast track that her best distance is no further than 5 ½ furlongs… on turf or dirt
    * If OFF THE TURF go with #1-Altamura (3-1); #4-Up Hill Battle (5-1); #8-Virginia Fable (5-1)

Race 5

  1. #1 – Victory Rally (9-5): Exits disappointing turf effort which should be toss as this gal gives a good account of herself in every dirt start
  2. #4 – Velocita Brillante (6-1): Trainer T. Keefe does the right thing by stretching this one out to two turns; she’ll need to prove to this Capper that she’s just a late rallying sprinter
  3. #6 – Ghoul’s Night Out (x-1): Stepped up into a very tough event and somewhat answered the call just to get SHOW purse

Race 6 IF the Punch Line Stakes is ON THE TURF

  1.   #3 – Available (6-1): That’s right… this 2 for 44 lifetime 9-year-old will waltz into the Winners’ Circle after taking this field from gate-to-wire and then pigs will fly! Had horrific trips in last two… just sayin’ 
  2. #10 – Determined Vision (9-2): Touted this one as LSPOD in turf debut win when 11-1 in similar restrict stakes; looks like he’s improved since then on both turf and dirt
  3. #4 – Elusive Mischief (3-1): Has strong turf speed figures with best coming in $100k stakes at WO which came 3-months ago; trainer switch from Casse to Wilkes; training like a monster
    * If OFF THE TURF go with #1-Homespun Hero (8-1); #4-Elusive Mischief (3-1); #11-Fly E Dubai (6-1)

Race 7 IF ON THE TURF

  1. #10 – Bye Bye Blues (5-1): Has the needed tactical speed to lay behind a plethora of early speed; D. Centeno chooses this gal over the #2
  2. #11 – Sensible Myth (10-1): Not a bad effort going 5 furlongs coming after a brief layoff; gets extra 1/16th to run down leg-weary speedsters
  3. #3 – A Great Time (3-1): Can boast best turf BRIS# of this bunch; failed to get the job done as favorite in off the turf event 3 weeks ago
    * If OFF THE TURF go with #6-Tiger Eyes (9-5); #10-Bye Bye Blues (5-1); #4-Dorothy Vaughan (12-1)

Race 8

  1. #2 – In Arrears (5-1): Might catch a sloppy track which enhances his chances; hot riding F. Lynch gets the call 
  2. #7 – Big City Blues (6-1): Third race after layoff; comes of pair of fourth-place finishes and has back class to improve 
  3. #9 – Magiritte (6-1): 6-year-old has done well at Lrl (14:3-1-3) and made a nice run in return from Pen in latest; might be rounding back into old form 

Race 9 IF the Bert Allen Stakes is ON THE TURF

  1. #5 – River Deep (3-1): *** BEST BET *** Made a nice late run in the Tim bull ring in open stakes event on dirt as winner came back yesterday to be fourth in G3 DeFrancis Dash; on or off the turf  he’s the BEST BET 
  2. #1 – Special Envoy (8-5): Has spent a good part of his career feasting on VA-breds in these restricted stakes; was in way over his head in G3 Red Bank on Mth turf in latest 
  3. #2 – Speed Gracer (5-1): 1 for 2 at this distance as the win came in gate-to-wire fashion; has yet to get the better of top two
    * If OFF THE TURF go with #5-River Deep (3-1); #3-Vincent Van Gogo (15-1); #8-Runninginthevale (8-1)

Race 10 IF ON THE TURF

  1.  #9 – Madame Milan (6-1): Exits G3 at 9 furlongs being prominent throughout but faded in deep stretch; facing easier foes and cut back in distance should bode well for her chances
  2.  #5 – Ponti Scheme (9-2): Lightly raced 4-year-old makes third start after layoff following third-place effort when off as 2-1 favorite versus similar
  3.  #4 – Enthrall (6-1): Honest runner at this level has been part of Trifecta in last 4 of 5 outings
    * If OFF THE TURF go with #7-Conjecture (7-2); #12-Saida (8-1); #4-Enthrall (6-1)

Race 11 IF the Brookemeade Stakes is ON THE TURF

  1. #9 – Armoire (1-1): It’s Ground Hog Day was she was 1-1 Post Time choice in this event last year but could not get to winner who does not return; adds blinkers
  2. #5 – Sweet Sandy (7-2): A disappointing fifth in this race last year can make amends with J. Toledo back in the irons
  3. #2 – Secret Or Not (12-1): Hasn’t visited the Winners’ Circle in more than two years yet seems content to get a minor share in this event year after year; will likely claim the SHOW purse 
    * If OFF THE TURF go with #6-Paulita (6-1); #9-Armoire (1-1); #3-Well Blessed (10-1)

Race 12

  1. #8 – Young American (8-5): This ones’ form went south when trainer C. Gonzalez threw him into two dirt events in the bull ring of Tim; need to believe he didn’t care for it and will rebound on the steep class drop 
  2. #4 – Kierland (6-1): Has shown he can run on the main oval (3:1-1-1) and not just turf so why not enter dirt races?! A sloppy surface certainly would help
  3. #5 – Redneck Cowboy (5-1): First race after $10k claim for trainer M. Moore (17% at Lrl) from a trainer who is 2 for 64 this year; tough Mth races aren’t as strong as in years past, finds a soft spot here

Yesterday’s News

  • On Saturday September 2nd at Laurel had just 4 winners from the 13-race card (3 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD below).
  • Top Selections are 343 for 1180 (29.07%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%). The payoffs of the day’s winners…
    • R1: xxx
    • R2: xxx
    • R3: xxx
    • R4: $21.80
    • R5: $2.40
    • R6: xxx
    • R7: xxx
    • R8: xxx
    • R9: xxx
    • R10: xxx
    • R11: $18.40
    • R12: $8.80
    • R13: xxx
  • Of the suggested multi-race wagers, none were hit.
  • BEST BET of the Day (118:32-30-11; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Elsa (11th race: 9-5 M/L; 1-1 PT) worked between horses on the turn then came up empty in the stretch to finish seventh.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (113:21-20-13; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Scuba (8th race: 12-1 M/L; 32-1 PT) settled close three and four wide, bid leaving the three eighths pole, left the turn four wide and showed little further while finishing fifth.

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