The GQ Approach – Laurel September 21

by | Sep 21, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Laurel Park

First turf race of the 2018 season at Laurel Park. Photo by Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live Fall racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: none
  • Super High 5: none
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Beaten Favorite - A horse who did not win his/her last race but was the post time favorite often is overlooked by bettors in its next race.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 9/ #6 – Regal Quality (5-2)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 6 /#6 – Gingeresk (5-1)
Multi-race Wagers
    • Race 1 – $2 Double: 3, 6 w/ 1, 5  ($8)
    • Race 6 – 50-cent Pick 5: 5, 6, 7 w/ 6 w/ 1, 5  w/ 2, 6, 7  w/ 3, 6, 9 ($27)
    • Race 9 – $2 Double: 6 w/ 3, 6, 9  ($6)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Sunny, highs in upper-70s
  • Scheduled turf races: 1st, 3rd
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST / Turf – OFF

1st Race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1 IF ON THE TURF

  1. #8 – Fed Up Fired Up (6-1): Late running style was thwarted in a pair of AlwN1x turf contests that had pedestrian early fractions; drops in class but faces open claimers and needs pace help
  2. #1 – Boomerang Miss (7-2): Spent summer racing on Mth grass versus better including just 5-lengths behind Mid-Atlantic turf star Monte Crista; victorious in lone Lrl start 
  3. #3 – Floating By (8-1): Draw a line through latest Prx off the turf try when sent off favorite but never was comfortable; back home and hopefully will behave to put in an honest effort
    * If OFF THE TURF go with #6-I Dream of Lois (8-1); #3-Floating By (8-1); #2-Spicy Girl Red (10-1)

Race 2

  1. #5 – Majestic Pic (7-2): Lone class dropper after getting SHOW purse in $7500N3L at Del; K. Davis back from lengthy absence due to shoulder surgery/rehab has already ridden a few winners; tries to be 2 for 2 w/ trainer D. Barr
  2. #1 – Choice Prospect (5-2): Looked good at The Big T in a pair of nickel claimers when dropped from loftier levels; fits here to get third career victory
  3. #3 – Scoreearlyandoften (6-1): Unlucky run in latest when 5th behind #1 in here, her first after trainer J. Carlisle $10k claim; reunited with F. Boyce who guided her to victory four races back

Race 3 IF ON THE TURF

  1. #9 – Lucy in the Sky (8-1): Will need to improve on career best turf BRIS# but gets to stretch out an extra 1/16th which could make all the difference especially with H. Karamanos back in the irons
  2. #5 – Go Magician Go (7-2): Off form in two starts since trainer D. Capuano claim but will forgive latest which came off the turf; has the talent to redeem herself in hands of capable conditioner
  3. #6 – Chesapeake Spring (10-1): Third race after layoff; has back class on the drop from restricted allowance company to compete on cut back in distance to turf sprint
    If OFF THE TURF go with #10-Lil Habit of Mine (4-1); #2-Queen of Schmooze (15-1); #1/1A-May Flowers/Stellar Trick (4-1)

Race 4

  1. #5 – Binary Bourbon (7-2): Three-year-old is a three-time winner facing N3L elders; can start a new win streak as she appears to be the controlling early speed of these gathered gals
  2. #1 – Fergie’s Lady (8-5): Beaten favorite at a level higher drops to rock bottom despite speed figs climbing in last two; wide trip throughout in bull ring could be a legit excuse
  3. #2 – Saint Mistress (10-1): 1 for 1 at distance came way back when breaking her maiden; third race after one-year vacation while stretching out from sprints 

Race 5

  1. #7 – Atlantic Avenue (9-2): Terrible start in latest when Post Time favorite made winning an improbability yet still made a nice late run to finish a respectable third
  2. #1 – Baccarat Fashion (9-2): After a pair of runner-up efforts, this promising gray filly bit off more than she could chew when shipped to Sar, showing typical early speed but couldn’t hang with foes for long
  3. #6 – Sister Patricia (8-5): Deserves to be Morning Line favorite but has the look of a career maiden (11:0-4-6) despite having the best speed figures of this bunch; has failed a few times before as prohibitive favorite   

Race 6

  1. #6 – Gingeresk (5-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Rough trip against peers in latest but returns to face a couple foes she beat two back; nice to see M. Pino willing to retain the mount
  2. #7 – Holiday Magician (4-1): Flattered top pick by winning next outing after being bridesmaid to that one two back; comes off earning career best BRIS#
  3. #5 – Miss Jak (10-1): Away nearly 2-months and no published works since; certainly not a formula for a top effort, but trainer C. Gonzalez is 35% when second-time saddling a starter

Race 7

  1. #6 – Pachi Cruze (7-5): Exits win at Pen as lukewarm choice in open $6,250 claimer; has won 4 of last 6 outings, including last effort at Lrl in May at this same level
  2. #4 – Sing Praises (2-1): Fragile six-year-old makes just fourth start in over a year, needing a couple month break between each start; recent work indicates a gate-to-wire try is the plan  
  3. #3 – Fifties Music (15-1): Candidate to complete the Trifecta and/or Superfecta as he always seems to get a minor share even when off at double-digit odds    

Race 8

  1. #1 – Rugbyman (1-1): Not ready for G3 competition in last two when getting blinkers; was given time to refocus and quartet of works should help him make short work of these AlwN1x foes
  2. #5 – Fallinginloveagain (6-1): Bad stumble at the start in second career outing July 7 and hasn’t raced since; gelded and shows a nice work pattern though
  3. #2 – Speightsford (4-1): Mth-based shipper has speed figure resume’ and pedigree that makes him a threat on first time stretching out to one mile; jock C. DeCarlo in just for this mount 

Race 9

  1. #6 – Regal Quality (5-2): *** BEST BET *** Field is filled with early speed types as this gelding has displayed best stride in deep stretch; winner and runner-up from his last race came back to be a respectable third in stakes and second in N2x, respectively
  2. #7 – Ballard High (7-5): Beaten favorite faded to third for trainer L. Rice, who continues to ship this one in trying for win #2; getting a clean break wouldn’t hurt but will have to contend with plenty of challengers for early lead 
  3. #2 – Halite (8-1): Graduated in gate-to-wire fashion at Pen in second career effort; no shame in being runner-up to Bronx Sandman at Del posting a 89 BRIS# in latest

Race 10

  1.  #9 – Star Eighty (5-2): No slam dunk as this 9-time winning, 7-year-old mare exits a 4-month layoff and offered for $5k when she’s been protected over the past couple years; fits this “N4L OR non-winner since March 21” condition perfectly though as last win came on Feb. 25
  2.  #6 – Chobee Girl (6-1): Exits second turf try where she won next outing following first turf effort; beat $10kN3L two back with S. Russell aboard as he is today
  3.  #3 – County Club (8-1): May have discovered a new running style in latest when she was not on or near the lead and passed rivals late; this type of run would serve her well against these gals

Yesterday’s News

  • On Sunday September 16th at Laurel had 8 winners from the 11-race card (4 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD below).
  • Top Selections are 338 for 1157 (29.21%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%). The payoffs of the day’s winners…
    • $2.80
    • R2: xxx
    • R3: $6.40
    • R4: $10.80
    • R5: $3.20
    • R6: $19.80
    • R7: xxx
    • R8: $15.20
    • R9: xxx
    • R10: $3.20
    • R11: $7.00
  • Of the suggested multi-race wagers, none were hit.
  • BEST BET of the Day (116:31-30-11; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Bonus Points (9th race: 9-5 M/L; 6-5 PT) stalked the pace, moved up four deep leaving the turn, challenged for the lead in upper stretch, dueled and just missed in a sharp effort and returned $2.80 to PLACE and $2.40 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (112:21-20-13; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Wiggle Room (11th race: 8-1 M/L; 5-1 PT) prompted the pace three wide, challenged for the lead entering the stretch then weakened in the drive, salvaging a minor share to returned $4.80 to SHOW.

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