The GQ Approach – Laurel September 9

by | Sep 9, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing

Laurel Park

First turf race of the 2018 season at Laurel Park. Photo by Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live Fall racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $2,062.47
  • Super High 5: none
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Jockey’s Lone Mount - Depending on how many mounts a jockey typically gets on a given day, if a jock only has one mount, especially towards the end of the day, that horse warrants a second look.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 5/ #2 – City Gold (9-5)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 8 /#8 – Whiskey Wu (20-1)
Multi-race Wagers
    • Race 1 – $2 Double: 8 w/ 6, 7 ($4)
    • Race 3 – 50-cent Pick 3: 4 w/ 2, 4, 5, 6 w/ 2 ($2)
    • Race 9 – $2 Double:  4, 6 w/ 1, 6, 9 ($12)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Cloudy with rain, highs in upper-60s
  • Scheduled turf races: 1st, 3rd, 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, 10th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – SLOPPY / Turf – OFF

1st Race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #8 – Comfy and Cozy (2-1): Trainer M. Matz filly stays in this off the turf $40kMCL event as she ran a creditable third sprinting on dirt in debut
  2. #6 – Ask Stacy (8-5): Adds Lasix after running greenly in the stretch in debut; strange that trainer M. Stidham keeps her in as his turf runners usually scratch in this situation
  3. #2 – Better Yet (10-1): Has the bloodlines to improve on a sloppy track but one never knows until they race on it as this gal shows she’s only worked when track has been fast

Race 2

  1. #7 – Parched Ghost (10-1): After three career outings, two not being the cleanest of trips and all sprinting, this class drop just might be enough to earn her diploma 
  2. #6 – Eye of the Wildcat (3-1): Third start after layoff, drops a back to level where she salvaged the SHOW purse three back which was last start on main oval
  3. #5 – Louise (7-5): Hard to take these low ML odds on an 0 for 8 filly being offered for less than the listed price ($14k v. $16k); weakened to third going this distance prior to faltering on turf

Race 3 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #4 – Matter of Factor (5-1): MTO for trainer John Servis is protected in this optional claimer and is 1 for 1 on an off track which came 3-months ago at Prx v. $25kN2L
  2. #6 – Capt. Grider (6-1): May be good enough for a minor share as Prx-based gelding makes Lrl debut in 20th career start; connections like him enough to enter without the tag
  3. #7 – Get the W (4-1): Got minor shares in all three ’18 starts and did the same in only previous off track outing; leery as to why in for the tag but trainer A. Goldberg 22% coming off short layoff

Race 4

  1. #5 – My Good Man (4-1): One of two M. Eppler trainees in here was beaten favorite in latest sixth attempt to graduate, missing by half-length a 4-5 favorite; taking a WAG that stablemate (#2) was entered to make sure this race went
  2. #6 – Chateau (9-5): The Toddster who also owns this gelding is just 2 for 14 with runners at Lrl the past year and this one hasn’t raced since end of May at Pim when he got beat a head as even money favorite
  3. #2 – Smart Step (8-1): Best finish (third by one-length) came two back on a muddy Lrl surface when racing wide on the turn which is always good when Lrl is “off”; added distance should help

Race 5 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #2 – City Gold (9-5): *** BEST BET *** A motley looking crew assembled for this $16kN2L and this K. Magee trainee has hit the board in all three since his $10k claim and catches the surface that rendered his only win
  2. #6 – The Walk (8-1): Has handled the sloppy going just fine in the past (3:0-1-0); don’t let record deceive you as he was in over his head in G3 Jerome in mud; will be forwardly placed  
  3. #3 – Chocomount (12-1): Form as gone south possibly due to being raced 12 times in 8-months but gelding has run decent on an off track in the past, so against this bunch could hit the board        

Race 6 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #4 – Victory Chimes (15-1): A strong gate-to-wire winner sprinting in Lrl slop a year ago was last time this gelding saw the Winners’ Circle; first time going two turns and bloodlines indicate he can get it
  2. #2 – Zen’s Land (5-1): Is as game on an off track as he is on turf; has tested this MD-bred/sired condition twice before, both on turf and got a minor share
  3. #6 – Beltway Bob (8-1): Would have preferred the turf but won only previous outing on an off track, albeit not the flashiest BRIS# (78) 

Race 7 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #7 – Crush It (9-2): MD-bred FTS by Not For Love out of a Smarten mare should love the off track; breeder, owner and trainer M. Eppler is in line to “crush it” purse-wise if this gelding turns out to be a good one
  2. #1 – I’ve Gotta Plan (4-1): Distant third at Tim two weeks back when in MSW; drops back to $25kMCL where he’s been close but no cigar; might start to wonder if he’ll ever graduate
  3. #2 – Cabinet Pik (5-2): Willing to give it a go on the main, sloppy oval as three career outings have been on sprinting on turf; instructions may be “Go to the lead and see how far he can go.”  

Race 8 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #8 – Whiskey Wu (20-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Lone win came on this Lrl oval when muddy; willing to forgive last two when “Unruly; taken wide” on turf and “fractious in gate”
  2. #9 – Ticker Tape Parade (5-2): MTO entry will be part of the early pace; ran well for trainer B. McFarlane at Tim in first outing after $5k claim when in against Alw5000s
  3. #3 – Macue (12-1): Exits five straight turf outings as the SHOW purse in two have been best finishes; will welcome the sloppy surface (2:1-0-1)

Race 9

  1. #4 – Hey Niki (10-1): This 3-year-old daughter of Include should enjoy getting her hooves wet and the stretch out to two turns following a trio of sprints to start her career
  2. #6 – Follow the Petals (4-1): One of two uncoupled C. Gonzalez runners in here; steps up to highest level of her career after finishing at 5-2 odds v. lesser which was first time not in-the-money on an off track (6:3-0-2)
  3. #5 – Stormologist (6-1): Perfect name for the heavy rains falling at Lrl today; speed figs have been improving as each of last three have come on different surfaces (synthetic, good main, turf)

Race 10 is OFF THE TURF

  1.  #1 – Mojo’s Louise Cat (15-1): Tried to get a gate-to-wire score when second time blinkers but couldn’t last the one mile following two sprints; should have built up more stamina to get it done today
  2.  #9 – Titanium Love (10-1): A beast of an quine specimen took a while to get to the track he fetched $100k as a yearling; will try to reverse his debut fortunes; has a recent bullet work on slop  
  3.  #6 – Art of Listening (6-1): KY-bred FTS by Artie Shiller out of a Sunny’s Halo mare would have preferred turf but gets vote of confidence from trainer B. Trimble (26% in ’18) staying in for debut

Yesterday’s News

  • On Saturday September 8th at Laurel had 10 winners from the 12-race card (6 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD below).
  • Top Selections are 320 for 1114 (28.73%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%). The payoffs of the day’s winners…
    • R1: $6.20
    • R2: $3.80
    • R3: xxx
    • R4: $6.40
    • R5: $7.20
    • R6: $19.20
    • R7: $10.20
    • R8: $4.60
    • R9: xxx
    • R10: $16.80
    • R11: $6.60
    • R12: $3.20
  • Of the suggested multi-race wagers, hit the R1-R2 $2 DOUBLE for $9.40 (cost: $8) and the R11-R12 $2 DOUBLE for $17.20 (cost: $8).
  • BEST BET of the Day (112:29-29-11; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Petticoatsnpistols (11th race: 3-1 M/L; 5-2 PT) chased the pace three wide around and faltered in upper stretch to finish fourth.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (109:20-20-12; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Whateverybodywants (7th race: 9-2 M/L; 4-1 PT) three wide the first turn, stalked the pace, circled the far turn four wide, was fanned to the five-path in upper stretch, bid for the lead outside TWIN VALOR in mid-stretch, drove clear to win by one-and-one-quarter-lengths and returned $10.20 to WIN, $6.20 to PLACE and $2.80 to SHOW.

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