The GQ Approach – Timonium September 2

by | Sep 2, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing

Timonium

On the track at Timonium. Photo by The Racing Biz.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Timonium Fair Grounds for the 7 days of live racing during the Maryland State Fair (Aug. 24-26; Aug. 31, Sept. 1-3), Post Time 1:05pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Jackpot Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

[su_box title=”Today’s Carryovers” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”]

  • Rainbow Pick 6: $736
  • Super High 5: $300
  • Late Pick 5: none[/su_box]

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[su_box title=”Best Bet of the Day” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”]Race 9/ #1 – Big City Blues (7-2)[/su_box]

[su_box title=”Longshot Play of the Day” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”] Race 7 /#6 – Bodega Bay (12-1)[/su_box]

[su_box title=”Multi-race Wagers” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”]

  • Race 1 – $2 Double: 1, 4 w/ 4, 6, 8 ($12)
  • Race 3 – 50-cent Pick 3: 3, 4, 5 w/ 2, 3, 7 w/ 1, 4, 8 ($13.50)
  • Race 6 – 50-cent Pick 5: 2, 8 w/ 3, 6 w/ 1, 6, 9 w/ 1, 5 w/ 3, 9 ($24)

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[su_heading size=”21″ align=”left”]Analysis[/su_heading]

  • Weather: Partly Cloudy, highs in the upper-80s
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST 

1st Race Post Time 1:05pm EDT

Race 1

  1. #1 – Scoop N Nailz (7-2): Bobble at the start here last Sunday cost him any chance; drops a few levels
  2. #4 – Great Nation (9-2): Quick from the gate in his debut when in with top pick but saddle slipped
  3. #2 – In Your Pocket (3-1): Back from 3-month layoff; hopefully resolved issues leaving the gate

Race 2

  1. #8 – Disco Express (6-1): All others been struggling at this level to get 2nd win; he’s been facing tougher
  2. #4 – Midnight Cry (9-5): Gave up lead late when 11-1 last week; capable of another strong outing
  3. #6 – Wilko’s Goldeneye (10-1): Just 1 for 31 but gets jock upgrade; can improve on SHOW effort

Race 3

  1. #4 – Tuffy’s Way (12-1): Been racing against open claimers while today’s foes been in conditional contests
  2. #3 – Posterity (2-1): Drops to lowest level of career despite speed figures moving in right direction
  3. #5 – Junction (5-2): Beaten fav. when traveling 1/8th further; reunites w/ jock who was aboard for last win

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Race 4

  1. #3 – My Adeline (9-2): 7-time winner faces non-winners of five races, some haven’t won four races 
  2. #7 – Stormy Mama (7-2): Third race after layoff often yields good results; earned best speed-fig in latest
  3. #2 – Northern Prancer (5-1): Gets class relief, dropping back to level where she consistently hits the board

Race 5

  1. #1 – Silver Sides (6-1): MD-bred first-timer by Bandbox fired two bullets in most recent works; tough spot on rail
  2. #8 – Pink Notion (9-2): Six-time loser been burning bettors bankroll but 4-furlongs is what the doctor ordered
  3. #4 – Flatter Me Owen (7-2): Sheds blinkers for third career start after bobbled at the start in latest; bullet work likely came with the hood off

Race 6

  1. #2 – Scoreearlyandoften (7-2): 4-furlong splits from recent races are best among today’s foes
  2. #8 – Choice Prospect (4-1): Filly beat the boys easily in N2L contest Opening Day; can make it two-in-a-row 
  3. #3 – Thirst for Truth (6-1): Closer will try to catch leg-weary foes late but may run out of real estate

Race 7

  1. #6 – Bodega Bay (12-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Considered weaker of the uncoupled A. Farrior entry; exits N2L turf win
  2. #3 – Mila Jane (2-1): Looks good on paper but back in v. elders for second time; has bounced off similar effort 
  3. #2 – Bring Me Answers (12-1): In for tag for first time since being claimed for $10k five races back

Race 8

  1. #9 – Allthewrongreasons (4-1): Second start w/ blinkers; cuts back to sprint; drops to lowest level yet
  2. #1 – Calculated Thinkin (2-1): Runner-up in last two at Lrl at this bottom level; distance seems perfect 
  3. #6 – Valadier (6-1): Trainer C. Gonzalez is 31% when giving runners multi-level class relief, as is the case here 

Race 9 

  1. #1 – Big City Blues (7-2): *** BEST BET *** Passed on MD Coalition stakes yesterday; gets the win w/ stalking trip
  2. #5 – Gold Man (3-1): 17 career wins from 73 starts; trainer/jock combo winning at 31% clip in the past year
  3. #4 – My Pirate (7-2): Upset winner v. better here 9 days ago; trainer pulling out all the stops to win meet title

Race 10

  1. #9 – Justanarch (5-2): Adds blinkers following a pair of so-so efforts on a wet track; return to sprint helps too
  2. #3 – Corinthian Sho Grl (7-2): Smart ride by J. Acosta when 36-1, trying new tactics which almost got the win 
  3. #5 – Whenallelsefails (10-1): Stretches out after gaining ground late in latest effort; trainer is firing on all cylinders 

Yesterday’s News

  • On Saturday, September 1st at Laurel had 9 winners from the 10-race card (5 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD below).
  • Top Selections are 306 for 1072 (28.54%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%). The payoffs of the day’s winners…
    • R1: $7.20
    • R2: $4.20
    • R3: $3.20
    • R4: $10.40
    • R5: xxx
    • R6: $4.00
    • R7: $24.60
    • R8: $8.20
    • R9: $6.60
    • R10: $3.80
  • Of  the suggested multirace wagers, hit the R1-R2 $2 Double that paid $22.80 (cost $12).
  • BEST BET of the Day (108:28-29-11; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Zen Papa (7th race: 8-5 M/L; 3-5 PT) chased the pace two-wide while pinched back on the turn, failed to rally settling for a minor share and $2.10 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (105:17-20-11; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Technicallyspeakin (4th race: 8-1 M/L; 4-1 PT) under a snug hold saving ground and just off a contested pace, eased out for room past the three eighths, quickly gained leaving the far turn, forged clear of the leader nearing the furlong grounds, widened under a steady hand ride to win by three-and-three-quarters-lengths and returned $10.40 to WIN, $5.40 to PLACE and $4.20 to SHOW.