The GQ Approach – Timonium September 1

by | Sep 1, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing

Timonium

On the track at Timonium. Photo by The Racing Biz.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Timonium Fair Grounds for the 7 days of live racing during the Maryland State Fair (Aug. 24-26; Aug. 31, Sept. 1-3), Post Time 1:05pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Jackpot Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $539.28
  • Super High 5: $379.95
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
First race on a different surface - Many horses prefer one surface or another, which can reveal itself the first time they try their preferred surface. Bettors can get a clue to this based on pedigree.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 7/ #6 – Zen Papa (8-5)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 4 /#1 – Technicallyspeakin (8-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double: 5, 7 w/ 2, 3, 4 ($12)
  • Race 3 – 50-cent Pick 3: 1, 2, 3 w/ 1, 5, 6 w/ 2, 5, 7 ($13.50)
  • Race 6 – 50-cent Pick 5: 2, 7 w/ 2, 4, 6 w/ 3, 8 w/ 1, 6, 7 w/ 8 ($18)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Cloudy, highs in the low-80s
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST 

1st Race Post Time 1:05pm EDT

Race 1

  1. #7 – Animal Lady (8-5): Bred to run on turf and did in first 7 outings then turned in best effort (2nd) in latest when taken off turf
  2. #5 – Vinny Gorgeous (5-2): Drops from $10k-$16k level where she’s frustrated her trainer finishing 4th, 5th or 6th in 9 of 10 starts
  3. #4 – Our Gal Mal (8-1): Huge improvement when dropped from $16kMCL to this bottom level when equipped with blinkers; extra distance should help

Race 2

  1. #4 – Phonemyposseagain (5-2): Fastest from gate but hits a brick wall after 4 furlongs, and that’s fine today cuz that’s all he needs
  2. #2 – Gem of a Guy (5-2): Odd to see owner who often wins graded stakes races have a $10k claimer who broke maiden at CT
  3. #3 – Gold Bridle (6-1): Not as quick as top pick but can sit just off that one in hopes of finding his best stride in the stretch

Race 3

  1. #3 – That’sthewaytodoit (4-1): Went to her knees when gates opened, losing any chance in second start following promising debut
  2. #2 – Raging Blaze (7-2): MD-bred daughter of Friesan Fire makes timely debut after a quintet of decent, well-spaced workouts
  3. #1 – Belial (7-5): Gray exits two-turn turf try after a pair of game dirt efforts; hasn’t displayed speed which might hurt w/ rail post

Race 4

  1. #1 – Technicallyspeakin (8-1): $ LONGSHOT $ Faced tougher than these when making first start in 21-months; reunited w/ old jock
  2. #5 – Southern Cross (9-2): Beaten favorite at Del when in v. better; needs help on front end to quicken the early pace for a late run
  3. #6 – Here’s Paco (3-1): Pid-based trainer/jock combo went 3 for 10 last weekend; this one shortens up; second start w/ blinkers

Race 5

  1. #5 – Ten Hut (7-2): Been competing in open claimers while foes knocking heads with conditional rivals; huge shot for Robb camp
  2. #2 – Fleet Gold Digger (3-1): Timonium will be 13th different track on which this 7-year-old has raced; first time going three-turns
  3. #7 – Dazzling Okie (4-1): Failed as favorite one year ago here in only previous start at Tim which was v. a softer group than these

Race 6

  1. #7 – Colonel Andy (7-2): Poster Boy for “Seconditis” (17:1-8-1) while beaten favorite in last 3 outings; new barn has the cure
  2. #2 – Sandy Lane (3-1): Lightly raced 3-year-old got a reality check in first start v. tough group of winners; beat heavy fav. two-back
  3. #6 – Sonic Boom E Jet (7-5): Was all out to beat $25k maidens; second and third place finishers flattered him by winning next start 

Race 7

  1. #6 – Zen Papa (8-5): * BEST BET * No joy in last two since trainer Reid claim but were v. much tougher than foes have been facing
  2. #4 – Town of Towns (8-1): There’s a plethora of early speed as is expected in 4 fur contests but this 10-yr-old can come off the pace
  3. #2 – Breeze Burner (2-1): Has only faced a total of 6 runners in last two outings; vulnerable favorite has back class to build off

Race 8

  1. #8 – Atlantic Avenue (3-1): Game effort in the stretch prior to encountering traffic which didn’t cost him win but still a nice effort 
  2. #3 – Pantyhose (10-1): Joe Namath would be a fan, no? Not sure what happened in latest but staying at top level is a good sign 
  3. #2 – Head for the Shore (5-1): Third race after 6-month layoff should yield a top effort; always well backed but an ugly 0 for 16

Race 9 is the $75k MD Coalition Stakes 

  1. #7 – Colonel Sharp (5-2): Having a great 2018 campaign; proved to be stakes level worthy w/ pair of third place efforts in last two
  2. #1 – Rockinn On Bye (9-2): Deep Closer was third behind two local stars likely heading for DeFrancis Dash; none like those in here
  3. #6 – Union Blues (6-1): Connections have put early speed in his game which has paid dividends; legit threat to go gate-to-wire

Race 10

  1. #8 – Smart Two a T (1-1): A standout in this bottom maiden contest but failed as fav. in latest; needs to contend w/ cheap speed 
  2. #2 – Love N Kimestry (2-1): Likely candidate to spoil top pick graduation party; will lag towards the back early, come running late
  3. #3 – Fear the Reaper (8-1): Bettors DON’T based on being sent off at double-digit odds in 9 of 11 starts; trainer seeks 1st “W” in ‘18

Yesterday’s News

  • On Friday, August 31st at Laurel had 7 winners from the 9-race card (2 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD below).
  • Top Selections are 301 for 1062 (28.34%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%). The payoffs of the day’s winners…
    • R1: $5.00
    • R2: $5.20
    • R3: $11.60
    • R4: $5.00
    • R5: $6.40
    • R6: $6.40
    • R7: xxx
    • R8: $3.40
    • R9: xxx
  • Of  the suggested multirace wagers, hit the R3-R5 50 cent Pick-3 that paid $27.50 (cost $9).
  •  BEST BET of the Day (107:28-29-10; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Jokers Tothe Right (3rd race: 7-2 M/L; 5-2 PT) three deep the first turn, circled the far turn four wide and rallied to finish one-and-one-half-lengths behind the winner and returned $3.60 to PLACE and $2.40 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (104:16-20-11; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Eighty Bucks (1st race: 10-1 M/L; 11-1 PT) pinched back by ZEKE THE STREAK soon after the break, circled the first turn three wide and steadily retreated after five furlongs to finish sixth.

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