The GQ Approach – Timonium August 26

by | Aug 26, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing

Timonium

On the track at Timonium. Photo by The Racing Biz.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Timonium Fair Grounds for the 7 days of live racing during the Maryland State Fair (Aug. 24-26; Aug. 31, Sept. 1-3), Post Time 1:05pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Jackpot Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $300.75
  • Super High 5: $467.50
  • Late Pick 5: $539.88
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Lightbulb Theory - When a horse finally breaks maiden after repeated failures, the lightbulb in his/her head may have come on and s/he may run very well in her next race, too.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 3/ #4 – Humbolt Street (3-1)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 7 /#2 – Sventastic (6-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double: 2, 5, 8 w/ 2, 5 ($12)
  • Race 3 – 50-cent Pick 3: 4 w/ 6, 8, 9 w/ 1, 4, 6 ($4.50)
  • Race 5 – 50-cent Pick 5: 4, 6 w/ 2, 4, 5, 8 w/ 1, 2, 4 w/ 3, 6 w/ 1, 5 ($48)
  • Race 8 – $2 Double: 3, 6 w/ 1, 5 ($8)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Sunny, highs in the upper-80s
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST 

1st Race Post Time 1:05pm EDT

Race 1

  1. #8 – Uncle Paul (3-1): Improved in second start, further improvement here puts him in the Winners’ Circle for solid connections
  2. #5 – Charley Eckman (5-1): After a pair of dull efforts v. better company, latest w/ blinkers, time to drop, “It’s a very simple game” 
  3. #2 – Joey Gotcha (7-2): Most seasoned of these 2-year-olds makes fifth start; early speed but has lacked stamina and goes further 

Race 2

  1. #2 – Fine N Dancy (5-2): Has continued to get better under the conditioning of M. Eppler; catches a soft group following maiden win 
  2. #5 – Dear Charlotte (3-1): Can boast the best career speed fig in here but seems unable to pass all rivals as she’s just 1 for 26 
  3. #4 – Nancy R (7-2): Definition of a “Cash Cow” (always gets a minor share) but took 23 races to get first win, which came on the turf 

Race 3

  1. #4 – Humbolt Street (3-1): *** BEST BET *** Fits “non-winners in 2018” race condition perfectly as he makes first start of the year 
  2. #5 – Relentless Strike (10-1): Appears to be candidate to take the early lead without much of a challenge; drops to level of last win
  3. #8 – Henry the King (3-1): Overmatched in first start after claim; takes suspicious class drop here but tough to toss all together 

Race 4

  1.  #6 – Mr. October (3-1): Scratched yesterday from an easier spot so the barn must be confident; 2 for 2 on this oval; exits 3 turf tries 
  2.  #9 – Smart Royal T (5-2): Steep class drop in hopes that facing easier foes will help regain form that produced gate-to-wire victories
  3.  #8 – Sleepin N Cheatin (5-1): Pen shipper looks like the speed of the speed; reg. rider in presumably to win, not for a Fair corndog 

Race 5

  1. #6 – Blushing Owen (7-2): Love the work tab for this WV-bred first-time starter by Limehouse; only mount on card for bull ring jock
  2. #4 – Candy Delight (7-5): Need to toss the turf try in latest despite being sent off even money fav.; has required early speed on dirt
  3. #1 – Cool Man Cletus (3-1): 3rd start after layoff usually produces a runners best effort; shortest distance between 2 pts is the rail

Race 6

  1.  #5 – Railmaster (9-5): Fourth career start but first on dirt; if he is as quick on dirt as on grass, he’ll earn his diploma today 
  2.  #8 – Tambora (7-2): Claimed for $25k out of last race; makes dirt debut in third start, first one being equipped with blinkers 
  3.  #2 – Valadier (6-1): First start after $16k claim by trainer who wins at a 33% clip in this scenario; expecting early speed from him

Race 7

  1.  #2 – Sventastic (6-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Nice training job by A. Merryman getting this guy back to good form; nice recent work 
  2.  #4 – Bungalow (2-1): Deserving favorite after romping against similar foes in latest; trainer/jock team up to win at a 38% clip 
  3.  #1 – Mr. Stipa (10-1): Managed to be third in willing first start in over 20-months which should bode well coming into second start 

Race 8

  1.  #6 – Phantom Shot (3-1): There’s enough early speed in this field to give this Closer-type a shot to catch those leg-weary foes late 
  2.  #3 – Enterprising Value (6-5): Destroyed competition by 10 in latest going a furlong shorter than today; can she win going longer? 
  3.  #2 – Aiden’s Rag Doll (6-1): Been facing tougher in last couple at Del after easily disposing of 5 foes at a class level similar to today 

Race 9

  1.  #5 – Crystal Pier (3-1): Class relief after finding tougher gals were too much to handle for this gray; jock/trainer a good team (31%) 
  2.  #1 – Baltimore Street (5-2): “The Block” made an amazing turn around in form when placed first in first start for new barn in latest 
  3.  #2 – Neyami (6-1): Gate-to-wire winner as prohibitive favorite at Del after a short layoff; drops in price but faces open company for first time as a 4-year-old    

Yesterday’s News

  • On Saturday, August 25 at Laurel had 5 winners from the 10-race card (2 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD below).
  • Top Selections are 297 for 1044 (28.45%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%). The payoffs of the day’s winners…
    • R1: xxx
    • R2: $3.20
    • R3: xxx
    • R4: xxx
    • R5: $7.80
    • R6: $7.00
    • R7: xxx
    • R8: $4.80
    • R9: xxx
    • R10: $14.60
  • Of  the suggested multirace wagers, none were hit.
  •  BEST BET of the Day (105:28-28-9; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Any Darn Day (3rd race: 4-1 M/L; 5-2 PT) bumped with IWISHIWASPECIAL leaving the starting gate, raced three wide the first turn, was put to the whip leaving the backstretch, circled the far turn three wide, faltered late to finish fourth.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (102:16-20-11; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Hurler (6th race: 6-1 M/L; 7-2 PT) no threat, passed tired horses. IT’S A PLANE, three deep the first turn, disputed the pace, raced two wide the far turn and faded in the drive while finishing in a DEAD HEAT for fourth.

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