The GQ Approach – Timonium August 24

by | Aug 24, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing

Timonium

On the track at Timonium. Photo by The Racing Biz.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Timonium Fair Grounds for the 7 days of live racing during the Maryland State Fair (Aug. 24-26; Aug. 31, Sept. 1-3), Post Time 1:05pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Jackpot Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: none
  • Super High 5: none
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Change of Equipment or Medication - Trainers often tinker with a horse's equipment - putting on or removing blinkers, adding Lasix, gelding a horse - to find what works best. Sometimes these changes can yield big improvements.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 1/ #1 – Clickjab (2-1)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 6 /#5 – A Lotta Wine (6-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double: 1 w/ 2, 4, 6 ($6)
  • Race 3 – 50-cent Pick 3: 1, 5, 6 w/ 1, 6 w/ 6, 8 ($6)
  • Race 5 – 50-cent Pick 5: 6 w/ 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 8 w/ 5 w/ 4, 6 w/ 3, 6 ($12)
  • Race 8 – $2 Double: 4, 6 w/ 3, 6 ($8)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Sunny, highs in the mid-80s
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST 

1st Race Post Time 1:05pm EDT

Race 1

  1. #1 – Clickjab (2-1): *** BEST BET *** Sent out by C. Gonzalez who seeks Big T trainers title 3-peat; drops from $8k open claimer at Prx while all foes except one (#4 at Pen) exit conditional claimers
  2. #6 – Goodbyeseeulater (5-2): 7 y.o. makes 3rd start in a 20-day span; honest runner has only failed to hit the board when having a troubled trip
  3. #7 – Demon Buster (9-2): Gritty win v. stablemate in latest came last month at Lrl bottom level; has a win and 3rd in 3 starts at this distance

Race 2

  1. #6 – Choice Prospect (4-1): Been trying to make a living on turf for higher purses; 0 for 7 on fast dirt track but held her own early on versus better 
  2. #2 – Big Bad Ben (3-1): Steeler nation will be all over this one; speed from the rail is the key on class drop and cut back to half mile
  3. #4 – Change Is Coming (8-1): Better than his latest when stumbled at the start as he is like a bullet from the gate; runner-up here last year; barn loads up for this meet

Race 3

  1. #5 – Dirty Laundry (9-2): Away since Dec. but likes TIM oval (2:1-1-0) due to her 4-furlong stamina; protected via Waiver Claiming rule
  2. #1 – County Club (7-2): Game filly seeks natural Hat Trick after a pair of wins by a whisker; shortest distance between 2 points is the rail at the track
  3. #6 – Sweethearted (8-5): Has class edge and gets dream setup to pounce on leg-weary speedsters late but could run out of real estate in the short stretch

Race 4

  1. #6 – Young American (6-5): Speed figs tower over today’s foes; has been burning bettors money failing as PT fav. in last 2 of 3 outing
  2. #1 – Super Buddy (8-1): Equipment malfunction (saddle slipped) cost this gray in latest, his first start in 6-months; expect better effort today
  3. #3 – Expedited Vision (3-1): Speed of the speed adds blinkers but could make him too keen to win on stretch-out, though skilled bull ring jock might be able to nurse him through soft early fractions

Race 5

  1. #6 – Tel Aviv (3-1): MD-bred Temple City FTS sent out by 4,000+ race winning trainer J. Runco won wins at 30% clip debut runners; tweeted video of this one schooling at CT so she could be special and gets barn Go-To rider in irons
  2. #8 – Hickory Made (6-1): Trainer J. Lawrence went 1 for 1 here last year; though woeful with FTS like the work tab and Acosta in irons; MD-bred by departed sire El Padrino out of a Closing Argument mare who was 0 for 3 in her career
  3. #7 – Nosey Josy (9-2): Bridesmaid in debut versus just four foes after original betting favorite and second choice acted up in the gate and were scratched; will need to improve off coming home in 7+ seconds 

Race 6

  1. #5 – A Lotta Wine (6-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Had an excused when badly beaten PT favorite in first start v. winners; needs a smart ride from 7 lb. bug  
  2. #2 – King of the Jungle (5-1): Third start after layoff as BRIS#s are ascending; 0 for 4 on dirt as lone win came on turf; could steal it on the front end  
  3. #8 – Riteamontofmschief (8-1): Second start with blinkers often yields positive ROI; cut backs from two-turn efforts at Pen versus better; small outfit looking for first win of ‘18  

Race 7

  1. #5 – Come On Callie (3-1): Adds Lasix for second start; won debut at Del v. $25kMCL foes after she dumped jock and ran off pre-race; one of two on the 9-race card for trainer J. Ness 
  2. #6 – Knock Out Kid (3-1): Nearly fell exiting gate which gave her no shot in latest; expecting third start to closer resemble her debut win
  3. #3 – Call Me Jelly Roll (8-1): Something must have been amiss in latest, first after claim as jock never asked her to run from the far turn; adds blinkers and jock A. Castrenze who’s 2 for 5 w/ trainer J. O’Dwyer

Race 8

  1. #4 – Hard Hitter (3-1): Claimed out of his last two starts takes obligatory step up in class; gets a stalking trip to catch plethora of speed
  2. #6 –  Took Over (5-1): Took advantage of four lesser rivals in depleted Lrl off the turf event; question whether he can get this distance as he backed up to 6th as fav. in only try going 6 1/2f
  3. #5 – Sir Rockport (6-1): Needs to improve greatly over last three races but this is the best place to return to form; just 1 for 26 on a fast track

Race 9

  1. #3 – I Came to Party (9-5): Has top Prime Power# as this lone entry for trainer J. Reynolds competed in OC$25k just 8 months ago; hasty drop in second outing off claim just to pay bills?
  2. #6 – Beauziggity (7-2): First start after trainer E. Geralis claim who wins at a 25% clip in this scenario and drops a level; longtime local fan/owner loves getting Big T Winners’ Circle photo
  3. #8 – Alarming (20-1): Runner-up her last year when in against $16k going shorter than today; has encountered traffic in past few; prior to that competitive   

Yesterday’s News

  • On Sunday, August 19 at Laurel had 6 winners from the 10-race card (3 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD below).
  • Top Selections are 292 for 1025 (28.49%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%). The payoffs of the day’s winners…
    • R1: $6.40
    • R2: $3.20
    • R3: xxx
    • R4: $6.80
    • R5: $6.20
    • R6: xxx
    • R7: $3.80
    • R8: xxx
    • R9: xxx
    • R10: $9.80
  • Of the suggested multi-race wagers, did not hit any.
  • BEST BET of the Day (103:28-27-9; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Rap Top (3rd race: 7-2 M/L; 2-1 PT) stalked the pace, circled the far turn three deep and gave way to finish fourth.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (100:16-20-11; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Drosselmoon (6th race: 15-1 M/L; 15-1 PT) lost ground four to five wide on the turn, raced in range to about the five-sixteenths pole then gave way to finish ninth.

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